Wed Bet O The Day 4/29

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A Separate Reality
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PLAYOFFS 2008/2009
YTD 6-6
SIDES 1-5
TOTALS 5-1


1-1 yesterday. Won the OVER Bst/Chi. Lost Philly +8'



Avenging humiliation starts with defense.


Den/NO UNDER 198 (<)<



gotta run cant writeup...
 

A Separate Reality
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quickly...

Series average 193 in reg season. 193 now in playoffs. Denver's D has come alive in the playoffs holding New O to 83.75 points per contest. New Os game plan will stress D. Defense is the only chance that NewO has to stay in the game. NewO must slow the pace down. NewO sports a top 10 D. Public's infatuation with offense and the linemakers need to account for the resulting OVER bias has given UNDER players 5 points of value. 198 versus the true 193 average. This game has a shot at being the lowest scoring game in the series set. GL

U welcome KingK
 

A Separate Reality
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"Series average 193 in reg season. 193 now in playoffs. Denver's D has come alive in the playoffs holding New O to 83.75 points per contest. New Os game plan will stress D. Defense is the only chance that NewO has to stay in the game. NewO must slow the pace down. NewO sports a top 10 D. Public's infatuation with offense and the linemakers need to account for the resulting OVER bias has given UNDER players 5 points of value. 198 versus the true 193 average. This game has a shot at being the lowest scoring game in the series set".

Analysis by OCCAM.

Free All The Time

FINAL SCORE 193:toast:

Thank you for the Luck, KingK, Mbabe and Hache

 

A Separate Reality
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The ability to pass on wagers is one of the most powerful weapons in a Cappers arsenal:

My thoughts:

The Bulls-3 and down 2-3, must win tonight in order to continue. The killer instinct stronger than the survival instinct, advantage Boston and the points. At 1-3-1 ATS Celts are moneyburners, must be better wagers elsewhere. Pass

Total of the Bull/Celt at 195. The series average 219 in reg season 217 in the playoffs. This is an OVER bet, but in analyzing (overanalyzing actually) 3 OT games in this series set All 3 would have gone UNDER prior to the OTs. Is this the game that finally goes OVER without the help of OT or does the trend continue for a 4th OT game or does it finally go UNDER

Too many questions for me. I had the OVER last game here. Series set 4-1 to the OVER. Its either an OVER or a pass. Pass


Orlando+5 OV/UN 184. Howard gone. This wager becomes a guessing game. What is going to happen? Dominates thinking, easy Pass. Must be better wagers elsewhere. Pass

Houston-5. This has been a Dog series 4-1. I like Houston to wrap it up at home, but the data screams Portland and the points. What I like, (-5) will have no bearing in what is going on (probability favors Portland +5)
Pass

The 179 Total is too close to my number at 178. Not enough value for me to get involved. I need at least 5 free points my way. Pass

Alright I get a day off, to go enjoy!. A nice smoke some prime rib and lobster sounds good.

GL back at em next time.

 

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