Washington / Colorado

[knickfan]

Anyone have a strong opinion on what's going to happen in this one?

I've hardly watched any Pac-12 football this year....but I hold Washington to win Pac-12 5* to win 30* (6:1) from preseason.... likely going to let it ride or possibly hedge out 5* unless Colorado is much better than I realize

All thoughts / trends / injuries / coaching tendencies appreciated.

 

[WinOne]

Waiting to get an update on the health of QB Lufau. He was extremely gimpy at the end of that game. He was doubled over a couple of times late in the 3rd/4th qtr. But he's a gamer.

 

[solrosenberg]

I kind of like Washington here, they are explosive enough to win this by double digits.

 

[predman]

I personally think Colo. is gonna get beat up,, bad .. might stay within 10, until late 3rd, and then 4th, wash will crush em...I think wash is physically stronger than buff team and will wear them down.. and Im a Buff. homer.
I dont think its gonna be close at all.
Best of luck

 

[turbo350z]

If it were my money I would bet 7* on col moneyline at +250.. either net profit 23* if wash wins or net profit 12.5* if col wins. Or you can adjust the wager to your liking. 10* on col money line will give you a 20* profit no matter who wins.. I like the 7* on col because it still gives you a reason to be interested in the game and you just need the 7pt fab to win SU.

 

[tmader7]

Only guy on this forum I'd trust with a thought on this is Conan. Read his latest post, I believe he likes Colorado +pts and is even gonna sprinkle some Colorado ML. Personally, I'd at least hedge whatever it takes to get the bet back, but that's me. GL with the play, nice spot to be in.

~T~

 

[knickfan]

If it were my money I would bet 7* on col moneyline at +250.. either net profit 23* if wash wins or net profit 12.5* if col wins. Or you can adjust the wager to your liking. 10* on col money line will give you a 20* profit no matter who wins.. I like the 7* on col because it still gives you a reason to be interested in the game and you just need the 7pt fab to win SU.

yea I'm thinking somewhere around 5* ml and then possibly 2-3* spread since it may provide a middle. And 7.5/8 points is somewhat significant when the over / under is 58.... Going to leave it as Washington pays more...it's a matter of how much.

 

[predman]

Nice preseason ticket to be holding!!
Yes I agree Conan knows pac 12 and more specifically USC ,Wa, Cal and Oregon , might try and get his thoughts on Wa. Buffs are a tough team to read, I've watched them, bet on them, and teased the last game to win, they didn't cover the 10 points. Their D is suspect
and give up some big plays, ,,, Wa has looked strong,except vs. USC but that team really turned it around
should be a fun game to watch for sure!!
BOL to you Knickfan

 

[knickfan]

I do have a slight conspiracy theory that the playoff / national tv prefers washington to lose this team and another big 10 team to slide into the playoff

 

[Bad_Cat]

I have the line at 6 so its pretty tight. No real value either way.

 

[sendacash]

I made the line Col +6.5 so have slight lean that way with current line of +7.5 over a key number. One thing that concerns me about the Buffs is their special teams play, especially since they have been using a backup kicker all year who can barely kick a field goal so they often times have to go for it on 4th down, even when in typical field goal range. Rather then taking a side, I went with the under 58.5 here given that we have two pretty good defenses - Col is #13 nationally in Total D while Wash is ranked #17. The Huskies are the top ranked rushing D in the Pac-12 which could keep those QB runs in check while Col has the #1 ranked passing D in the Pac-12 (maybe a top 5 secondary in CFB) which can keep Browning in check while the Huskies OL is not really a strong point of their team.

 

[GoSooners]

I do have a slight conspiracy theory that the playoff / national tv prefers washington to lose this team and another big 10 team to slide into the playoff

I agree with what national tv prefers, but the tv cameras aren't playing the games. The CU/UW game does look like the most evenly matched game outside of the Big 10 game. So nothing would surprise me there...

 

[WinOne]

in researching the game, I believe this will be the first game UW has played on natural grass. Could be important because they might have issues with footing and it may negate some of their team speed. Also 49'ers stadium can be slick since it's on the water.

 

[GoSooners]

Waiting to get an update on the health of QB Lufau. He was extremely gimpy at the end of that game. He was doubled over a couple of times late in the 3rd/4th qtr. But he's a gamer.

Sefo's backup Montez is pretty good. They say he's even more talented than Sefo. He's just not as experienced, and got thrown to the wolves earlier in the season against Michigan. But he looked good in his games against Oregon, OSU and USC. They'll be in good shape next year at that position...

 

[r.a.]

Nice preseason ticket to be holding!!
Yes I agree Conan knows pac 12 and more specifically USC ,Wa, Cal and Oregon , might try and get his thoughts on Wa. Buffs are a tough team to read, I've watched them, bet on them, and teased the last game to win, they didn't cover the 10 points. Their D is suspect
and give up some big plays, ,,, Wa has looked strong,except vs. USC but that team really turned it around
should be a fun game to watch for sure!!
BOL to you Knickfan

Not sure where your getting that Colorado's defense is suspect as they are 13th nationally amongst all division one teams.

 

[predman]

Not sure where your getting that Colorado's defense is suspect as they are 13th nationally amongst all division one teams.

I do hear ya R.A.,
But I've watched their games and it surprises me too. Did ya catch that Wash. st game?? CU did a decent job against the run, but W st. moved the ball thru the air on them late,the game was alot closer than the score reflexed.. just the momentum changed CU's way in the end. I've seen them get down early and come screaming back in games too, so they can score
They are a well rounded team in general, and I'm def. no expert, they did hang tough with Mich. which surprised me, and I loved it, just like I said they are tough to read IMO. I'll be watching, routing for a great game..
Huskies have had a soft schedule IMO, I like to look at 3rd down conv. and they are close... time will tell.
BOL to all.

 

[Conan]

USC outclassed them both but Colorado was more pesky than the Dawgs.
Pretty much the same thing Colorado vs Michigan in W1. I think CO could
possibly have taken out the Wolverines if Sefo had not been injured. I'm
waiting to see how Liufau is doing. He's the key to a cover or SU win.

 

[sendacash]

Liufau is one tough customer, he would have to be pretty bad off to not play but I guess the question is how effective can he be? Luke Falk certainly had his moments in the Colorado game, there were a couple dimes he dropped right on the money looking like NFL QB throws. The Huskies defensive performance against him was certainly better with 3 picks to only 1 TD while Colorado gave up 3 TDs to 1 pick. Not sure if Falk was dinged up in the Colorado game or not, but the Buffs did lose 2 players in their secondary during that game, the early targeting call ejection on safety Laguda and then another safety Moeller went out later with a concussion.

 

[sendacash]

Here's a recent article on the Buffs secondary unit, who now go by "The Money Gang". Not the most clever nickname, sounds like they are looking to go Tout and sell some picks.

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/29/the-money-gang-colorado-buffaloes-secondary/

 

[Conan]

I just don't see coach MacIntyre allowing this one to get too far away.
This game will be fought tooth and nail and it's going to be a war. UDub
seems to have the better athletes but they are a young team. On the
other hand Colorado is loaded with senior experience. Even Liufau is a Sr.
We're it not for all the marbles I'd give the Buffs an edge in motivation and
savvy, I don't remember a situation quite like this as extreme as it is. It's
a little confusing weighing out experience against raw talent because the
Buffs got game in them but so do the Dawgs. As I said this game may boil
down to a QB battle that could favor Liufau especially if he's having a good
day running the ball. They need him to play a clutch game if they expect
to win. I don't see to the Buffs fading at the end. They'll make the Huskies
earn it if they really want it.