Washington/Cincinnati

bookie · Nov 9, 2004

I posted this at another forum but I decided to put it here as well. When I first joined Rx in 2001 I used this angle as my first post and thought this might be a good game to bring it up again.

Washington (-3) over Cincinnati

A few years ago I picked up a betting tip I would like to share with you. This is a stat "tell" that really applies to this game.

DRA-Defensive rush attempts

DRA is the amount of times teams run the ball on you. In other words, teams that win usually have low rush attempts against them because the ability to stop the run as well as they are usually winning and the other team must pass to catch up.

Check this link from NFL.com and notice the top and bottom teams. Washington is 3rd (27.4 att/gm)and Cincy is last (33 att/gm).

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/DEF-RUSHING/2004/regular?sort_col_1=4

I should point out I dont start using this stat until the middle of the season to get a true indication. I cant tell you how many times I have used this and won. I like situations like this game (top/bottom) especially when the spread is reasonable. Many times there are games like this, however, the spread is usually much higher than three. I love it when I see the wrong team favoured based on this stat.

Its a moneymaker and I dont base my decision solely on this stat but it is my favourite one. Just like anything else use with caution.

bookie · Nov 9, 2004

Sorry...I meant to put this in the football forum. If a mod would like to move it, please feel free to do so.

truthteller · Nov 9, 2004

As I stated earlier in the week GOY for me. Redskins -3.

TheGeneral+ · Nov 9, 2004

Thanks for the info bookie. I will copy this there for you.

jaypaw · Nov 10, 2004

that stat has nothing to how well the teams do when they actually do run the ball and it also doesnt tell you why.

The implication you make is that they dont because they cant - which is not necissarily a reasonable conclusion to draw.

I think that looking at the stats for scoring per game (Points for and points against), yards per game (offense gained and defense yds allowed), and strength of schedule are alway important to take into consideration.

On all accounts (except strength of schedule) Pittsburgh has the upper hand.

Defensively Pitt is second best in terms of yards allowed and cleveland is in the middle of the pack.

Offensively pitt is in the middle of the pack and cleveland is towards the bottom.

Pitt has handled their competition by an average of 8 pts and cleveland has only managed to stay within 2 pts of their opponents. Cleveland however has played one more home game than pitt but to their credit they only lost by 11 at Pitt. Without Deuce however things might look a little different.

Last week bettis logged a good number of yds vs philly, BUT philly is at the bottom of the pack in terms of rush yds allowed - but cleveland is actually 9th overall in terms of rush yds allowed.

Take the 177 yds that deuce gained in the meeting between these two at pitt and that 11 pt spread becomes a significant question. If Garcia can throw for about 250 at pitt then what can he do in cleveland?

Just some thoughts

GL

bookie · Nov 10, 2004

As I said this is more of a "stat" tell. We obviously cant watch every game played so this stat is a barometer for how the team is playing. You might ask yourself about the Skins lousy 3-5 record, but look a little closer and you will notice that 4 of those losses were by 6 points or less.

One more note on this game. Coach Gibbs has probably looked at the schedule and noticed he has Philly, Pittsburgh, Giants and Philly again coming up after the Bengals game. The team knows this is a must win game considering what is coming up and this is their only soft spot for a while.

WizardofWins · Nov 10, 2004

Thanks for posting this angle/trend/tell...whatever it is a like it

bookie said:
I posted this at another forum but I decided to put it here as well. When I first joined Rx in 2001 I used this angle as my first post and thought this might be a good game to bring it up again.

Washington (-3) over Cincinnati

A few years ago I picked up a betting tip I would like to share with you. This is a stat "tell" that really applies to this game.

DRA-Defensive rush attempts

DRA is the amount of times teams run the ball on you. In other words, teams that win usually have low rush attempts against them because the ability to stop the run as well as they are usually winning and the other team must pass to catch up.

Check this link from NFL.com and notice the top and bottom teams. Washington is 3rd (27.4 att/gm)and Cincy is last (33 att/gm).

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/DEF-RUSHING/2004/regular?sort_col_1=4

I should point out I dont start using this stat until the middle of the season to get a true indication. I cant tell you how many times I have used this and won. I like situations like this game (top/bottom) especially when the spread is reasonable. Many times there are games like this, however, the spread is usually much higher than three. I love it when I see the wrong team favoured based on this stat.

Its a moneymaker and I dont base my decision solely on this stat but it is my favourite one. Just like anything else use with caution.

bookie · Nov 14, 2004

Bump

Time to win some :money8:

cooltedd · Nov 14, 2004

i'm with ya bookie....this is a really large play for me....washington covers huge here today...actually look for some major pass plays from brunell out of the play action pass...good luck