Cant say I agree here. Almost popped Rampage at +110 saturday, but i have been so swamped with law school finals that I havnt had a chance to watch many fights. I usually like to re watched fighters last few performances before making a move even if I have seen the fights already as I am usually high and/or drunk while watching PPV's. In any event, my thinkin was this:
(all of this reasining is open to debate and it is not steadfast so opinions welcome)
1. Rampage is a more well rounded fighter than he was in 2003 and 2004, his wretling and stiking are stronger.
2. Despite his destruction of Keith Jardine, Silva has previously peaked in terms of overall ability.
3. Although Silva has put on weight, but he still appears to be an undersized 205er, while Rampage is a large 205.
Silva did not respect Jardine's power and came out and completely mauled him to death. That will not be the case here. I see the fight starting out more like Chuck/Wander. I think Rampage's striking will be more precise and technical. I think Silva will land some bombs, but he wont be able to drop Jackson with strikes as the chances of his wild striking landing on the button are not great as long as Jackson keeps his composure. I dont think the clinch is going to be a factor, I think Jackson preperation, along with his size advantage will keep him out of the clinch. If Silva is persistant with it, he will get beat up on the inside with dirty boxing and Rampage will be able to put him on his back like he did Dan Hendersen. Silva does not attempt to use his bbj and submitting rampage from his back would be shocking to me.
I dont think leg kicks are going to be an issue. Silva is not as long as Forrest and I dont see him using leg kicks as effectively.
You have to question Rampages mental state, this is an issue, the question is how much weight do you give it. He seemed incredibly focused in the interview on ESPN, then today got this from article on mmajunkie....
"I'd say that my last fight probably was the best thing that happened to me," said Jackson, who spent much of his UFC 92 training camp in England. "I got rid of some old baggage and it actually made me hungrier, right? So, I started back. And, it just made me really think about my career. Like, look, I'm a professional fighter, you know what I'm saying?
"I'm a professional athlete. I've got to start eating like one. And, I never did that type of stuff. Not even for my whole career, not even protein shakes. I've got a good nutritionist and good people behind me and telling me all the good things to do and stuff I've never done before. And, this has paid off. It's showing in my work ethic and my training."
"Since last August, I got rid of all the baggage around me, and got a bunch of good people around me and good things," Jackson said. "And it’s actually working out pretty well, you know. So I'm pretty happy with how everything is turning out."
"Honestly, I knew that I'd see Wanderlei again, especially as soon as he signed with the UFC," Jackson said. "It was inevitable. And I don’t see this as revenge. Revenge is a dangerous motive. This is my job. This is my fight. This is my career. This is my life.
"Those first two times happened. It didn't have the outcome that I wanted to have, but this is my time to make it right in my mind. Fighting when I'm a little bit better. I'm a little bit older and more mature now. I'm a lot better with my skills and everything. So I feel like this time right here, this is the time where I can go and give it my all, my 100 percent. This is my time right here to go and do it."
I know you dont expect a fighter to say he is a mental wreck, but all indications are that he is coming into this fight 100%.
