Wagering Question ???

[PeteRoseJR]

I sometimes play 2 or 3 team parlays. Say for Example:

I am playing a 3 team parlay....I start out going 2 for 2...$ 100/600.......

What is the proper amount to hedge back at the start of the third game ??

I know that some will say to let it ride, but I am a fairly conservative player and like the idea of a guaranteed profit.

Is the a certain percentage that pro's use?
Do pro's hedge at all?
What do you do if you are in this situation?

Thanks in adance......

PRJ

 

[JudgeWapner]

Pete, personally would hedge the original 100 so you basically get a free roll.

 

[DarrylParsons]

Right now your bet is worth about $370.

If you had that $370 in cash in your hands right now, how much of it would you wager on the team in your parlay? Whatever your answer, subtract it from $370 and that's the amount you should hedge.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

Judge:
Thanks for your response, that is what I currently do..I make sure to get at least my stake back if I am in that position. My problem is that I am using inconsistent dollar amounts when I hedge out. Sometimes even when I win a bet, I feel like it was a loss because I didnt play the hedge properly..You know what I mean?

Darryl:
Also, Thanks for response. How did you come to that figure of $370 ???
Is that number based on a two teamer paying 2.70 to 1 with the return of your original stake?

2.70 + 100 stake = 3.70

Please elaborate further on how you would handle that situation, if you have time.
Would you then hedge back $370 ?

Thanks
PRJ

 

[DarrylParsons]

PRJ,

The $370 is just the approximate bet you would need to make at -110 juice to get a $700 payout, which is what the parlay will be worth if it wins. Probably $360-$365 is more accurate since you can usually find reduced juice somewhere. Of course it also depends on how much the line moved since you made the bet. If it moved in your favor, add about $20 per point to the value, and naturally subtract that amount if it went the other way.

What I would do depends on which side I like. If I still like the original side, then I would either just let it ride or make a very small hedge. The hedge in this case would be a negative EV bet and so I'd want to minimize that. Of course there's also the question of how much I can risk compared to my bankroll. I'd probably not want to go above 2% no matter what, so any excess I would hedge.

 

[DarrylParsons]

Is it one of tonight's games btw?

 

[PeteRoseJR]

DP,

Thanks very much....I understand exactly what ur saying..I am also curious if anyone hedges out an exact percentage everytime.. I think there is something to be said for consistency in sports betting...

Yes, my wager will come down to WIZARDS +7 tonight vs. Clippers....Will hold on too his one tonight, at least until half..I also need ATL HAWKS +4 1st QTR, to complete a two teamer...

I am not looking good on my DUKE wager.......down 9....

 

[picasso]

If you plan to hedge game #3, why include it in the parlay in the first place? It's just costing you extra vig.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

Hedged back original stake of $100..

100 to win 600
-100 Hedge

$500.00 profit........3/3

Lost Duke and Atlanta +4 (1st qtr) WON WISKY and PARLAY...

NIght profit of : $430.00

Picasso,

Good point... I usuallly play these small and for fun..It usually happens on a day when I am home with no interruptions and can sit back and watch some games..I am still bad in the aspect of betting games because they are on TV. So to eliminate that I plan out what games I will watch that day on TV . I put them together (usually 2-3 games NEVER more) and put at the most 1 unit on it.. If I lose the first game then I go down to a two-teamer for the remaining games if timing permits. My reasoning is too eliminate making large wagers on games because they are on TV..I know this is the squarest thing a bettor can do is bet TV games so this is my remedy for not forcing picks....I maybe play 1 of these every 10 days or so...Square I realize, but it has definetly helped me.

PRJ

 

[phdinsports]

Hey Pete, you got me thinking. Instead of a parlay, why don't you just wager $100 on a game doulbe up three times and win $700 instead of $600? If worried about juice, play reduced juice -107, bet 93 three double ups win you $644 instead of $600, while only risking $100!

 

[phdinsports]

Sorry mate, my bad! Did quick calculations in my head, double checked using a calculator was off! profit doubling three games at -110 is $565 at -107 $600 (same as a parlay) opps!!!