Been tracking CBB games the past 5 days, starting to notice things.
First, the public isn't as wrong as you think they are. Actually, they're pretty good. Games that have 60% or more of the public on them, usually win. The record I have for the past 5 days is 74-50-4 (60%).
I don't watch line movement, to me it's worthless. Watching where the line moves has not been profitable any way you measure it. Some people love reverse line movement. I don't. The games I've found RLM have gone 30-40 (43%).
What I have noticed is to follow the total bets placed. Look for games where there's a high amount of bets on, go with the team that is garnering more of the action. This is especially true for mid majors. I'll throw out some numbers.
When there is at least 10,000 bets placed on a game featuring a mid major, the ATS record of the team with the higher percentage is 8-1-1.
When there is at least 15,000 bets placed, the team with 62% or more of the total is 15-4-1.
When there is at least 20,000 bets placed, the team with 62% or more of the total is 6-0.
I'm going to watch, post plays, and see how this works out. Games that have been working out the best are the mid major games with an unusually high volume of bets especially when they are lopsided towards one team.
First, the public isn't as wrong as you think they are. Actually, they're pretty good. Games that have 60% or more of the public on them, usually win. The record I have for the past 5 days is 74-50-4 (60%).
I don't watch line movement, to me it's worthless. Watching where the line moves has not been profitable any way you measure it. Some people love reverse line movement. I don't. The games I've found RLM have gone 30-40 (43%).
What I have noticed is to follow the total bets placed. Look for games where there's a high amount of bets on, go with the team that is garnering more of the action. This is especially true for mid majors. I'll throw out some numbers.
When there is at least 10,000 bets placed on a game featuring a mid major, the ATS record of the team with the higher percentage is 8-1-1.
When there is at least 15,000 bets placed, the team with 62% or more of the total is 15-4-1.
When there is at least 20,000 bets placed, the team with 62% or more of the total is 6-0.
I'm going to watch, post plays, and see how this works out. Games that have been working out the best are the mid major games with an unusually high volume of bets especially when they are lopsided towards one team.
hno:
