ViVa Las Vegas........or not

[LeeOrtz]

Two great defenses lock up in Las Vegas tomorrow. Both allowing less than 100 yards a game rushing. New Mexico's DBs have looked good all week according to reports. They will be forced into a lot of man coverage because of Steven Jackson, the Beavers great running back.

New Mexico has racked up mega yardage all year. The only PAC-10 they faced this year was Washington State. I think this game tells us a lot. They lost 23-13. They went into halftime with a 13-12 lead. They held Washington State (who was at home) to five FG's and one touchdown. Their red zone defense was amazing. Dontrell Moore (New Mexico's outstanding running back) only ran for 21 yards on 11 attempts.

Since that game New Mexico has been on a tear. They won 7 of their last 8. Losing to UNLV, but not in Las Vegas......

Oregon State has some key injuries at linebacker. New Mexico has a huge offensive line. They are impressive if you have seen them play. Oregon State also is horrible on special teams. I would expect to see New Mexico come after some kicks. USC blocked a couple against them in Oregon State's last game.

The Beavers have lost 4 of their last 6. They also had a close game, that turned into a shoot out with Washington State.

I'll take the hot team with the better defense. I thing the secondary of New Mexico will step up and hammer these ball dropping receivers. I also think this game will be won on the line, and New Mexico is vastly superior up front.

New Mexico +2 1/2 1 unit

also

New Mexico +8 1/2 2 units
Over 46


4-1 BOWL RECORD
9-3 OVERALL

Uncle Leo

 

[splitt]

If memeory serves me right, didnt NM quarterback get hurt against North Texas. The backup stunk. IF memory serves me right

 

[LeeOrtz]

Casey Kelly is his name and he was not hurt and did not play North Texas. But he is mobil and can cause a lot of problems on the option.

FYI and thanks for the post,

Uncle Leo

 

[splitt]

My bad it was the other New Mexico

 

[cfbguy]

pac 10 bowl favorites are 4-14 ats in thier last 18 tries.teams who allowed more than 20 points a game during the season and were favored in a bowl game are just 7-21 ats.new mexico has redemption on thier minds after losing in this same game to UCLA.ill take the lobos to be the 2nd dog to bark this bowl season.GL

 

[Co-Captain]

I never had a chance or reason until now to check out how and why New Mexico lost to BYU at home. Why did they only score 7 pts in that game. Since you seem to have cap it out already, I was wondering if you have an insight to that lost. Aloha CC

Also , you reference in your other post that the sharps have move the line in the Boise game, did they move this line from 3 to 1.5. or is it the public.

 

[LeeOrtz]

Co Captain,

You already know this I am sure, but when lines are posted in Vegas here are beards (people who come in and lay bets for big time cappers in Vegas and lay huge money).

I watch opening lines and watch which way they go in the first 30 minutes of posting. This is called sharp money. I am sure you know this already, but I wanted to clarify. These guys are wrong sometimes and right sometimes, like the rest of us. But when they lay 100k down at the Mirage it moves a line across town.

So, as a result, on the Boise game it was a combination of both. Thus, I lost. In this case, people see New Mexico and think...who? The public will jump on Oregon State.

Hope this clears things up. Thanks bro!

Uncle Leo

 

[Co-Captain]

Yes Lee, I am aware of how that works. I am also aware , that there are times where they drop money intially on one side, hoping to move the line and influence this, and then at game time drop the bigger load on the opposite side. It may have happened in this game, because the line dropped some before game time. It was at 11 for some time went to 11.5 then 12 and then I got it at +10.

This kind of shit these people do is smart as they are always looking for the control an advantage. But I without for sure knowing what and who is really doing what, I rely on my own abilities. Forthermore, Vegas also does some of these things. They could of been the one to drop the cash , of course through someone else, to move a line that they may have made mistake on. Or maybe to stimulate betting action. Who the hell knows unless you are affiliated with Vegas or one of the syndicates out there.

Anyway, good luck tomorrow and thanks for responding Aloha CC,

 

[bulldog77]

Co_Captain:
I noticed that strange drop right before game time ,too. After a slow steady rise to 11/11.5 I checked 5 minutes before game-time and it was 9.5 many places. I knew I was in trouble with Boise then.

 

[LeeOrtz]

I love this teaser.....if you are still unsure on this game hit this teaser.....

NM +8 if you can find it
Over 46

Thanks,
Uncle Leo

 

[Co-Captain]

bulldog, thats why I dont necessarily pay any attention to who is doing what to the spread, cause you wont know who is ****ing with it. For all we know it could be the book moving it to make people think that someone dropped major bucks on one team. Or it could be true someone did drop the bucks, you will never know. I know that the book sometimes will also move the line just to try and stimulate people to bet. Those last minutes before the game time like I mentioned could have easily been the books doing it to catch those undecided people. In the begining also ,after the book puts out a line the could move it alittle to trick us into thinking that its sharps or syndicates who pounded it. My thinking is that the books know how we think and what we think is happening. and when someone know what your thinking or going to do , then they have the power to control you and influence you. The trick to beating them is one cap your own number and when you see it show up then bet it . Dont bet because your guessing who did what. Thats what the books hope you do. Second, think like you were the book. Think what you would do to be the player if you were the book. Think like them and you could possible get back some control and when you do, then I consider that to be sharp. Aloha

 

[Co-Captain]

Lee, we bangin again tonight, but good luck to you anyway. Aloha CC.