UIC-DePaul over 128 2**
I think the national tv games this week -- in which UIC was hammered by Duke and DePaul struggled down the stretch against a deliberate Northwestern team -- have given us value in this number. The scoring averages for these teams reflect the teams they've played so far this year rather than the style they each prefer to play. DePaul has played three teams that play a little faster than average...Northern Illinois, IUPUI and Notre Dame. The totals in all three of those games were in the 150s. UIC has played three teams that play a little faster than the norm...Milwaukee, Georgia Tech and Duke. The GT game was an aberration in that the game was played fast but both teams shot in the 30 %s. UIC shot a season-low 34% in that one. The other two games, the totals were in the 140s. The fact this is a city rivalry might raise the "pressure" a little bit, but I expect both teams to play to their strengths...making plays on the offensive end. Probably will be a fair amount of one on one shotmaking (aka street ball) in this one. Going into the game Wed. vs. Northwestern (and the stats from that one skewed DP's numbers), the Blue Demons were a 47% off/44% def. team. UIC has struggled shooting the ball this year as they adjust to a new point guard who just isn't setting up banks and the front court guys nearly as well as Bailey did the last three years. But McGee is getting better and they should shoot a better number today against a DP team that is just an average defensive team so far. (I do believe they will get better defensively though because Leitao will drive improvement in that area). The bottom line of this play is this: if you rely on the statistics to make this play, you probably won't see much of an over....the offensive ppg for these teams totals 131. However, I believe both teams like to play fast when they can...and I believe there will be a fair number of run-outs on both ends in this game...and with willing participants who want to both run a bit and play a bit faster than they have in most of their games thus far, we will see 60 shots for each team. With just 40% shooting for the two teams, which I would make the worst case scenario, combined with 10 made treys and 22 FTs (which are lower than the averages for these teams), we get to 128. So I'll bet these teams score a bit more than this worst case scenario.
I think the national tv games this week -- in which UIC was hammered by Duke and DePaul struggled down the stretch against a deliberate Northwestern team -- have given us value in this number. The scoring averages for these teams reflect the teams they've played so far this year rather than the style they each prefer to play. DePaul has played three teams that play a little faster than average...Northern Illinois, IUPUI and Notre Dame. The totals in all three of those games were in the 150s. UIC has played three teams that play a little faster than the norm...Milwaukee, Georgia Tech and Duke. The GT game was an aberration in that the game was played fast but both teams shot in the 30 %s. UIC shot a season-low 34% in that one. The other two games, the totals were in the 140s. The fact this is a city rivalry might raise the "pressure" a little bit, but I expect both teams to play to their strengths...making plays on the offensive end. Probably will be a fair amount of one on one shotmaking (aka street ball) in this one. Going into the game Wed. vs. Northwestern (and the stats from that one skewed DP's numbers), the Blue Demons were a 47% off/44% def. team. UIC has struggled shooting the ball this year as they adjust to a new point guard who just isn't setting up banks and the front court guys nearly as well as Bailey did the last three years. But McGee is getting better and they should shoot a better number today against a DP team that is just an average defensive team so far. (I do believe they will get better defensively though because Leitao will drive improvement in that area). The bottom line of this play is this: if you rely on the statistics to make this play, you probably won't see much of an over....the offensive ppg for these teams totals 131. However, I believe both teams like to play fast when they can...and I believe there will be a fair number of run-outs on both ends in this game...and with willing participants who want to both run a bit and play a bit faster than they have in most of their games thus far, we will see 60 shots for each team. With just 40% shooting for the two teams, which I would make the worst case scenario, combined with 10 made treys and 22 FTs (which are lower than the averages for these teams), we get to 128. So I'll bet these teams score a bit more than this worst case scenario.
