VICTORY FROM OHIO picks week 11. 12-2 year to date. Discussion, analysis and picks

[victory]

Great week (5-1) but now it's time to get back to business and focus on week 11.

12-2 year to date in posted plays (all confirmed unlike some clowns on here that claim they have a great record without any documention--you know who you are!!)

Lots of big chalk favorites gave me a big winning week (Denver, Arizona, Seattle and Philadelphia) but I'm doubtful that type of trend continues. I'm usually not one to wager on big favorites, but last week my analysis saw lots of blowouts and most of them did occur as predicted.

This is a tough week as I feel the lines get sharper as the season goes on. Right now I don't see a whole lot that I like but I do see some potential over/unders that have some value. I won't force anything and continue only to pick my spots where I feel like the line is off. I'll post all my picks in this thread so others can follow or fade as they wish. I've been on fire, but I know this pace is not sustainable longer term.

Curious as to plays of the week from anyone. I welcome any thoughts and analysis.

As always, good luck to everyone and only gamble with what you can truly afford to lose!!!

 

[victory]

Thursday night football and we have a tough division rivalry game and I'm here with a MEDIUM play to start the week. Buffalo already crushed Miami earlier this year (in Buffalo) but I think Miami gets revenge tonight and get to showcase their phenomenal defense on national TV. With Fred Jackson out and Watkins nursing a groin injury, I just don't see Buffalo putting up a lot of points with Orton at the helm. Tannehill has been up and down but the Dolphins really took care of business in their last home game with a shut out of a decent Chargers team.

I just can't see Buffalo doing much with Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown as their running backs today. Good luck to all and never wager more than you can afford to lose!

MIAMI DOLPHINS MINUS 4 1/2 points for a MEDIUM wager.

12-2 YEAR TO DATE THUS FAR. More picks coming later this week.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Good to see you posting Victory........like the Miami play.

As you stated, the favs showed a lot of value last week, but this league is a week to week league, where anything can happen.

One thing I do know that consistent, are the over's on Sunday & Monday nights.

Good luck this week........

 

[victory]

Thanks TCG! Glad we are on the same side here!!

 

[victory]

Glad to escape with a win tonight; Buffalo gave me a loss last week and I'm glad I didn't take them this time.

I also have to say this to the refs for making sure the pick was a winner:
Thankyou)(&

13-2 now year to date. On to the Sunday and Monday games.

 

[maineky4013]

Nice picking victory I always look at picks thanks for ur help man keep rolling

 

[victory]

Nice picking victory I always look at picks thanks for ur help man keep rolling

Thanks for the kind words maineky4013. I always suggest not following anyone on here blindly and to do your own research too. Also, I always say only gamble what you can afford to lose. I'm hoping my hot streak continues and will continue to post my plays here. However, this week seems a lot tougher than previous ones.

Feel free to follow or fade but I know if I lose some haters will start coming out and get upset (meaning they went in too big and lost). As always good luck to everyone!

 

[victory]

First Sunday Wager and it's a total:
UNDER 46 Minnesota/Chicago (SMALL wager)

Minnesota does not score many points on the road. In their last 4 road games this year they have scored 19,16,10, and 9 points in each game. Chicago at home has only had 3 games and they scored 14, 17 and 20 points in those games.

I'm really not impressed with Cutler this season and think their woes continue. Also with cold weather and some wind in the forecast, I can see a "grind it out" type game with lots of field goals and running plays.

I feel like the 46 number is too high and an under has value.

Recap: UNDER 46 Minnesota/Chicago for a SMALL wager. 13-2 YEAR TO DATE

 

[victory]

Couple more picks on the early games today:

Kansas City is on a roll and has won 6 of their last 7 games. They have won their last 3 home games by 14, 27 and and 27 points. KC always has been a tough place to play at home and even a great team like New England got clobbered by 27 in KC. Seattle in their recent road games barely beat Carolina and lost to St. Louis. Seattle is a much different team away from home and are 2-2 on the road this year.

Thus, I'm taking KC minus 1 1/2 for a HUGE wager

Cleveland is playing well--especially at home and the cold weather conditions will make it tough for Houston today. The Browns are 4-1 at home while Houston is 1-3 in their last 4 road games. I think the Browns ferocious defense will confuse Mallett today and force some turnovers. Especially with Foster out, Mallett will have to try to win it in the air. I see Cleveland winning this one by at least a TD.


Thus I'm taking Cleveland minus 3 1/2 for a MEDIUM wager.


RECAP for the week 11. 13-2 year to date with these wagers pending:

UNDER 46 Minnesota/Chicago (SMALL wager)
Kansas City minus 1 1/2 (HUGE wager)
Cleveland minus 3 1/2 (MEDIUM wager)

As always only remember to wager what you can afford to lose and good luck!

 

[fadetheaction]

Well thought out. When on a losing streak remember you have a brake as well as gas pedal. Not meant for you. Best.

 

[United]

Good luck this week V

 

[LexingtonGambler]

Good Luck!!!!!

 

[DowntownMickeyBrown]

simply the best

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today my friend!!!!

 

[buckshotbookies]

Solid looking card victory. !!

 

[TMoe]

only med. on browns Im here in Cleveland and was going to go big was wondering what your thought is on the game ?

 

[TMoe]

sorry didn't read the whole post

 

[Broham]

GL, I'm on Browns and Chiefs too

 

[victory]

Tmoe I like the Browns and live near Cleveland too. I feel good about it but like KC better. Good luck!

 

[Jbarsk82001]

Good luck sir on kc myself, big statement for them