Easy
Easy on the expectations. Easy on the plans to double bankrolls by Christmas. Easy on all the accolades.
I had a good season two years ago. A lucky season. Things just fell in place. No guarantees that’s going to happen again.
For those that weren’t around the Rx two years ago I need to explain my method and some background.
I’ve been gambling on sports all my life since I was running “tickets” in Junior High many….many years ago, (so long ago it was known as Junior High). I’ve learned a lot of tough lessons along the way. Lost money I had no business in gambling. Showed lack of discipline more times than I would care to relate here. Chose some very questionable handicapping techniques, and thought money management meant reconciling a check book.
I’m proud to say that I’ve come a long way since my, ignorance is bliss, days. Today I keep things very simple. Play conservatively and use a strict betting technique that will assure me of never running out of a bankroll. Most important I can honestly say that in the recent years, I end up in the black consistently. With that being said…. I could lose this year. No guarantees in this business.
I’ll post some selections almost every day. Usually between one to three games a day. Most all of them will be for one flat unit. If I like a game a lot I will press it up one half unit. That’s it. One unit and one and a half units. Told you that this would be simple and conservative.
I bet a percentage of my bankroll and I suggest you do the same. For me one unit play equals 2% of that bankroll. A play that I feel very strongly on will equate to 3%. As I win and my bankroll increases in 10% increments I will increase my units accordingly. As I lose, I will decrease them in the same manner. You must keep detailed records of every bet you make otherwise this will not work. You must be disciplined. You must focus on the big picture and not get discouraged over losing streaks that are bound to occur.
I will attempt to write out a analysis on each selection. As you can tell by this post I can be long winded. I will try to keep them concise and reader friendly, (but no promises). The purpose of the analysis is so you can decide if you agree with the logic or not. Don’t bet blindly along with me. If you don’t agree with my thoughts tell me so and why you like the other side, or another game, or why I should be taking the gas pipe. The purpose of posting forums is to share opinions and help others see things from a perspective that you may not have viewed it otherwise. Being a sheep and blindly following others serves no purpose unless you have aspirations of being a lemming.
With each selection I will show the line I got and the book I bought it at. Almost always the shop will be Pinnacle. If you are going to bet the NHL and don’t have an account there, get one. They are a true dime line and have early overnights. Many of my plays will be posted the night before the game using Pinny’s overnight.
I will keep a running year to date W/L total and profit/loss, (in units), that will be displayed at the bottom of each day‘s selections.
Contrary to popular belief hockey is not a difficult sport to beat. In fact I think it’s the easiest, providing you are not betting with a 20 cent vig house.
True this year will be a different animal because of the rule changes/salary cap and I will approach it as such. I have strong opinions on what I think will transpire early on because of these changes and have a plan of attack ‘05-‘06. Of course much of this depends on the line that the books put up early on and their interpretations of how the changes will effect the game. For now I wish to keep my thoughts to myself until I see those lines and what array of wager options they allow before I take action. I can say in all honesty that my views will become very transparent once you see my selections during the first couple weeks of October. I do tend to lean to the contrarian side.
Undoubtedly the lines, handicapping , and thought process will evolve just as the game the ice does. In many ways we are all in this virgin unknown together and not sure of what to expect. The NHL, the lines maker, and bettor alike are all heading to the first day of school.
So let’s just have some fun this year gentlemen. We have our game back and that alone is reason to celebrate. The rule changes and parity will make it better than ever. Hopefully we will turn a little profit as well and take it….
Easy
