Vegas Dave's Philosophy Pick 12/14 (17 - 6 YTD)

[VegasDave31]

Green Bay (-2.0) @ Jacksonville (+2.0)

Fred Taylor out. Matt Jones out. Jerry Porter (even if he IS an underachiever this year) out.

Jacksonville has lost 4 straight games by double digits. They've lost 6 of their last 7 games, with the only win coming over Detroit. They have had problems on and off the field all season long. Tons of key injuries on the lines and to some big name position players. They appear to have given up on the season.

So how on earth are they only getting 2 points here?

Yes, Green Bay has also fallen off in a major way, losing 5 of their last 6. But those 5 losses were @Tennessee, @Minnesota, @New Orleans, vs. Carolina, and vs. Houston; all good opponents, and only one of those losses was by more than 4 points.

Even with all their struggles, Green Bay seems way too easy here, and 85% of bettors are betting Green Bay minus the points, and the heavy majority of ML bettors are on Green Bay too.

I just NEED to go the other way.

I like Jacksonville +2 and on the money line.

I also did a video on why I like philosophy picks, hopefully you find it interesting:

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Good luck this week!

 

[ajreeb]

Thanks Dave. Great stuff.

 

[VegasDave31]

Thanks AJ, good luck this week!

 

[midman2161]

Cool video.. I agree 100 percent, and if you are smart you are going to want to be on the book's side in the majority of these types of games.

 

[LuvParlays]

Good info. Love the avatar!

 

[VegasDave31]

Good info. Love the avatar!

Thanks, its the best part of all of my posts

 

[sumday]

dude..don't bet on jax..you will be kicking yourself for doing it after the game

 

[ESQAJM]

Dave: Good video-I really enjoyed it. I ran a weekly thread on here trying to pick a weekly "philosophy" pick. (I called it a trap game) I did it for about 4 weeks, spent a lot of time on it, and went 0-4 so I gave it up. But I agree with your concept. There's definitely something to it. Maybe it doesn't come as frequently as once a week and I should have been more patient.

 

[midman2161]

Dave: Good video-I really enjoyed it. I ran a weekly thread on here trying to pick a weekly "philosophy" pick. (I called it a trap game) I did it for about 4 weeks, spent a lot of time on it, and went 0-4 so I gave it up. But I agree with your concept. There's definitely something to it. Maybe it doesn't come as frequently as once a week and I should have been more patient.

IMO there are multiple "trap games" every week, and Vegas also sets traps for sharp bettors. However, the types of games that he is talking about, when the public is truly over 80 percent on the side, happen more infrequently throughout the season.

 

[VegasDave31]

Dave: Good video-I really enjoyed it. I ran a weekly thread on here trying to pick a weekly "philosophy" pick. (I called it a trap game) I did it for about 4 weeks, spent a lot of time on it, and went 0-4 so I gave it up. But I agree with your concept. There's definitely something to it. Maybe it doesn't come as frequently as once a week and I should have been more patient.

4 games isn't enough of a sample size! This year, funny enough, I started off 1 - 1 Week 1, went 10 - 0 over my next 10 selections (11 - 1), then lost 4 straight (11 - 5)... since then I've been lucky enough to get back on track (6 - 1 to bring me to 17 - 6), but if I only played those 2 weeks where I went 0 - 4 (and I don't regret any of those picks at all), I'd have given up too! Consider tracking games and not betting them until you find a groove.

Also, like you said, be patient. I've been picking these for 4 years, and 3 years (including this one) I've been over 65% on the season. My one off year I went 24 - 22, barely over .500, because I was trying so hard to find them that I talked myself into things that just weren't there. Some weeks there will be 0, some 1, some 3. Be selective! :toast:

 

[VegasDave31]

IMO there are multiple "trap games" every week, and Vegas also sets traps for sharp bettors. However, the types of games that he is talking about, when the public is truly over 80 percent on the side, happen more infrequently throughout the season.

It isn't only 80% though, its 80% AND the line not moving. If everyone is pounding the favorite at -4.0 and it moves to -5.5 and everyone keeps pounding it, no reason to fade the public just for the sake of fading them; the game doesn't really meet my criteria if the line moves with the bettors.

 

[midman2161]

I understand everything but what about this JAX game.. the line opened at 1 and now I see it at 2.5. That is moving with the public on GB otherwise it would have gone to a PK.

 

[billbeater]

del rio looks crazed..... i dont think he can do anything... jags in shambles

GL Dave

 

[MikeB]

Nice vid ya handsome devil. GL on your play. I think I might just tease them though. Cross 3 & 7.

 

[track1]

i think vikings +3 @ arz would be the best philos play. everyone is on the cardinals

 

[smartz]

Hasnt this line moved 1.5 points?

 

[VegasDave31]

Didn't hit much else this week, but this one hit. Congrats to those of you on Jax!

 

[billbeater]

nice hit, can't imagine having to watch this game................

 

[shaprie123]

nice video!!!

 

[Prophet]

Nice call on Jacksonville.