Interestingly enough, my Philosophy Picks are not always just reverse line movement or betting against the public... but these have been the most frequent of late. Down the stretch you will see more pop up with different criteria. But this week there were just a few that were too good to pass up on.
Atlanta -3.0 @ Oakland +3.0
Atlanta, behind sharp young quarterback Matt Ryan and the legs of Michael Turner, has turned a complete 180, going from among the league's worst to a potential playoff team in the wide open NFC. 4 - 3 both ATS and straight up, losing a game to Philly that was much closer than the score indicating and coming off of wins against Green Bay and Chicago, this team looks like it can hang.
Oakland meanwhile floundered through another tough loss against Baltimore. And while the Baltimore defense had a lot to do with that, to the Average Joe, it was just another Oakland loss. Yes they beat the Jets, but it was ugly as hell and it looked more like the Jets losing than the Raiders winning; and Favre followed that up with another bad performance against one of the league's worst in Kansas City.
With McFadden still out, the Raiders explosive dynamic is gone; as is the chance to keep Fargas fresh. Statistically there is no reason to believe Atlanta will have trouble moving the ball; their 3rd ranked rushing game faces the Raider's 26th ranked rushing defense. Atlanta's one weakness, it's passing defense, faces the league's 30th ranked passing attack.
Not only do you get Atlanta at the bargain price of -3, but bookies are also gift wrapping it for you, offering +105 or better.
It doesn't get any easier than Atlanta -3.0, which is exactly why I'm going with OAKLAND to win this game outright.
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Philadelphia -6.5 @ Seattle +6.5
HERE is where you really put your philosophy pick pride on the line, because this one I really have trouble seeing happening.
Philadelphia's 4th ranked offense (scoring per game) faces Seattle's 25th ranked defense. McNabb and Westbrook, leading the league's 4th best passing offense, get to face the league's 30th ranked passing defense this week.
As for Seattle on offense? They are 13th in rushing but face the league's 9th ranked rushing defense... a defense that will have an even easier time defending against the run because there is no reason to respect the pass. Seattle's passing offense is league worst (and that includes time when Matt Hasselbeck was in, which he isn't now due to injury), and faces the 12th ranked passing defense; more than enough to stop this measly attack.
The line opened at -7. Around 84% of bettors took Philadelphia. And the line moved to -6.5.
Philadelphia should win this one by 4 TDs by the numbers; but I'll take the lowly Seahawks to cover here.
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So there you go! Both of these meet the same criteria; betting the side that bookmakers clearly don't want us to bet for some reason. We'll find out why Sunday.
Oakland (+3.0)
Seattle (+6.5)
Atlanta -3.0 @ Oakland +3.0
Atlanta, behind sharp young quarterback Matt Ryan and the legs of Michael Turner, has turned a complete 180, going from among the league's worst to a potential playoff team in the wide open NFC. 4 - 3 both ATS and straight up, losing a game to Philly that was much closer than the score indicating and coming off of wins against Green Bay and Chicago, this team looks like it can hang.
Oakland meanwhile floundered through another tough loss against Baltimore. And while the Baltimore defense had a lot to do with that, to the Average Joe, it was just another Oakland loss. Yes they beat the Jets, but it was ugly as hell and it looked more like the Jets losing than the Raiders winning; and Favre followed that up with another bad performance against one of the league's worst in Kansas City.
With McFadden still out, the Raiders explosive dynamic is gone; as is the chance to keep Fargas fresh. Statistically there is no reason to believe Atlanta will have trouble moving the ball; their 3rd ranked rushing game faces the Raider's 26th ranked rushing defense. Atlanta's one weakness, it's passing defense, faces the league's 30th ranked passing attack.
Not only do you get Atlanta at the bargain price of -3, but bookies are also gift wrapping it for you, offering +105 or better.
It doesn't get any easier than Atlanta -3.0, which is exactly why I'm going with OAKLAND to win this game outright.
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Philadelphia -6.5 @ Seattle +6.5
HERE is where you really put your philosophy pick pride on the line, because this one I really have trouble seeing happening.
Philadelphia's 4th ranked offense (scoring per game) faces Seattle's 25th ranked defense. McNabb and Westbrook, leading the league's 4th best passing offense, get to face the league's 30th ranked passing defense this week.
As for Seattle on offense? They are 13th in rushing but face the league's 9th ranked rushing defense... a defense that will have an even easier time defending against the run because there is no reason to respect the pass. Seattle's passing offense is league worst (and that includes time when Matt Hasselbeck was in, which he isn't now due to injury), and faces the 12th ranked passing defense; more than enough to stop this measly attack.
The line opened at -7. Around 84% of bettors took Philadelphia. And the line moved to -6.5.
Philadelphia should win this one by 4 TDs by the numbers; but I'll take the lowly Seahawks to cover here.
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So there you go! Both of these meet the same criteria; betting the side that bookmakers clearly don't want us to bet for some reason. We'll find out why Sunday.
Oakland (+3.0)
Seattle (+6.5)
uppy::scared::bigone::nosepicki:scared1:
