Vegas Dave's College Football Picks Week 9 (Video)!

[VegasDave31]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y78Fk21qyI8

Enjoy! Lets bury some winners this week fellas!

FRES -16.0
USF -4.0
TCU -31.0
MIZ -21.0
USC -16.0
TULSA -23.0
TTU/KU OVER 66.0
UCLA/CAL OVER 51.0
SMU/NAVY OVER 62.5

 

[Delta00]

That was horrible.

First off you have all big chalk, sucker games and overs. Can you be any more public? I can see why you had a good week last week and just a smidgen over 50%

You gave no analysis at all. Why did that have to be 9 minutes? All you seemed to say is they can score at will over and over. You are a fool for thinking Louisville has no defense, they had no defense last year and this year it is much improved. They are ranked #26 at overall defense. I have no idea if you think you are saying anything worth a damn. "I think they will cover" is not an analysis, we can see that just from your list of picks. You have no methodology in your totals, you just throw out numbers. UCLA has a good defense and a putrid offense. Craft will struggle against a good Cal secondary and Cal won't be able to run as well as they have against a good UCLA DL.

You look like a dork with that mic rig, you have a face for radio and a squirrely annoying voice that lacks any confidence.

Constructive criticism my man.

 

[StopDropampLOL]

I think i just got a little dumber

 

[VegasDave31]

That was horrible.

First off you have all big chalk, sucker games and overs. Can you be any more public? I can see why you had a good week last week and just a smidgen over 50%

You gave no analysis at all. Why did that have to be 9 minutes? All you seemed to say is they can score at will over and over. You are a fool for thinking Louisville has no defense, they had no defense last year and this year it is much improved. They are ranked #26 at overall defense. I have no idea if you think you are saying anything worth a damn. "I think they will cover" is not an analysis, we can see that just from your list of picks. You have no methodology in your totals, you just throw out numbers. UCLA has a good defense and a putrid offense. Craft will struggle against a good Cal secondary and Cal won't be able to run as well as they have against a good UCLA DL.

You look like a dork with that mic rig, you have a face for radio and a squirrely annoying voice that lacks any confidence.

Constructive criticism my man.

That part didn't really strike me as constructive criticism, that was more of a personal attack.

I'm not really going to argue with anything you said, simply because its pretty clear you have a strong opinion of me already and I doubt me trying to explain myself will change that. I do simply want to point out the ridiculousness of saying "I can see why you are just a smidgen over 50%". Maybe in tout land 54.2% isn't a good winning percentage, but with smart line shopping and money management there is really 0 reason why 54.2% winners shouldn't make you money long term.

 

[jimmymo]

Not in love with many of your plays, but difference in opinion is what this business is all about....and I do like Tulsa and Mizzou for what its worth...best of luck this week VegasDave.

BTW, 54.2% is solid....those who say otherwise have simply proved they are fools by saying so.

:toast:

 

[VegasDave31]

Jimmy, I'm not in love with too many of them either. I'm just going on value this week... I ask myself "if this game was played 100 times, would my side cover 52+?" and I personally think the answer is yes in each case. There are very strong arguments that can be made against each of these picks. Tulsa is really the only game I truly love.

Not looking for an 8 - 1 type of week this week. I just took the sides that I believe were correct, and hopefully the bounces won't go against me and I can take a 5 - 4 or 6 - 3 type of week.

Good luck to you as well!

 

[CoachCB]

Another Chalk Eater!

I guess if you throw enough shit against the side of a barn....some of it will stick!

(Here I go again!)....

---

 

[Right-Side]

WOW a ton of unwarrented negativity in this thread. Maybe there has been something in the past that I am unaware of but anyways, I lean to Tulsa as well. BOL this week

 

[VegasDave31]

Another Chalk Eater!

I guess if you throw enough shit against the side of a barn....some of it will stick!

(Here I go again!)....

---

Trivia question for you.

You bet $1000 a game at -105 a game on 50 dogs with the points. Your record is 28 - 22.

I bet $1000 a game at -105 a game on 50 favorites giving up the points. My record is 28 - 22.

Which one of us made more money?

That's right! We both are exactly even.

But you are much cooler because you take the points.

What is the difference between picking winners minus the points or plus the points in a -110/-110 proposition? Honestly, winners are winners. This hatred of favorites is flat out stupid in my opinion.

If you don't like my plays, that is completely fine. But criticizing me just for giving up points makes absolutely no sense.

 

[VegasDave31]

WOW a ton of unwarrented negativity in this thread. Maybe there has been something in the past that I am unaware of but anyways, I lean to Tulsa as well. BOL this week

Thanks Right-Side...

Honestly, I understand that I am fat, I get it. I'm sure everyone else on the board has an excellent physique.

I'm just trying to pick some winners... aren't we all on the same team here?

 

[bullets]

Idiots who have posted in your thread are the reason why good posters leave. They can't just say good luck or hey, I'm fading you, one of us will be happy.

Dave, I can tell you that I am fading your plays and I wish you luck this weekend. One of us will be happy.

There are some great games on Saturday.

:drink:

 

[EMOCKE]

:monsters- ..........

 

[VegasDave31]

Idiots who have posted in your thread are the reason why good posters leave. They can't just say good luck or hey, I'm fading you, one of us will be happy.

Dave, I can tell you that I am fading your plays and I wish you luck this weekend. One of us will be happy.

There are some great games on Saturday.

:drink:

Sounds good to me. :toast:

 

[bullets]

Sounds good to me. :toast:

Thats the spirit. Good luck, there are some great games this weekend.

 

[VegasDave31]

What are you on bullets?

 

[2DIMES]

If i pick 3 games i belIEVE i will go 3-0......why pick 9 games and hope to go 6-4 or 6-3 weed out the weakest pick and only play your strongest plays.

 

[bullets]

What are you on bullets?

Dave, I am a dog player so I don't wager on my games until 1/2 hour before the game starts. I also had a terrible start to the year but I am on a very good run and got back over 14 units last week so now I am only down 6 units. This is betting 1 unit per play.

Here is what I am looking at for Saturday. Nothing is for sure yet so I am not posting any numbers.

Indiana
Indiana 1st half over
U conn
Baylor
Kentucky
Kansas
Kent St.

These will probably be plays for sure unless Dr. Bob is on them or I the line moves against me.

GL.

 

[VegasDave31]

If i pick 3 games i belIEVE i will go 3-0......why pick 9 games and hope to go 6-4 or 6-3 weed out the weakest pick and only play your strongest plays.

A few reasons.

1) For the video: Generally speaking I'll look at a board and I'll find 5 - 10 best bets. This week I only found one; Tulsa -23. So I had the choice of doing a video with one pick or with my strong leans as well... I chose the latter.

2) I believe in value. If you offered me 20 fair coin flips all at +105, I'd take all 20. I would not expect to 20 - 0... I'd expect to go 10 - 10 and turn a small profit. Or, hopefully if it is my day, 11 - 9 or 12 - 8.

Not the same thing in football, I know. But if I cap a game and I believe that I have found the right side; the side that will cover 53 or more times out of 100, it is worth a play. If my assessment is correct, I'll still lose 47 of these games; but long run I will have 53% or more winners, which is enough to turn a profit long run.

As such, in a week without too many best bets, I'm playing my strong leans as well. I'm just being realistic in saying I don't expect to go 9 - 0; obviously I believe each of these picks will be a winner, or I wouldn't have played it.

 

[VegasDave31]

Here is what I am looking at for Saturday. Nothing is for sure yet so I am not posting any numbers.

Indiana
Indiana 1st half over
U conn
Baylor
Kentucky
Kansas
Kent St.

Very nice, love those! In my initial rundown of the schedule I agreed with you on all of these except for Kansas; They are extremely live at home and are definitely not a bad pick, I just think T Tech will rise to the occasion.

I stayed away from these for various reasons that I won't waste your time with, unless you are interested. But looks like a solid board to me, good luck!

 

[CowboyT]

Honestly Dave, screw the haters. It takes balls to post a video of yourself for everyone to see. I hope you go 9-0.

And, I think you have a chance for a career in sports journalism. You obviously have an enthusiasm for it. It just takes a ton of work and a bit of luck (just like this sports wagering thing). There are millions of people out there who say they want to do it and you are actually doing it, albeit in a small manner. And there are millions of others who say they want to be a firefighter and don't volunteer a lick. There are others who want to be writers and don't read or write or keep a journal. Just keep getting better at what you want to do. The rest of these folks will be swallowed up by their cubicle, swimming in their hatred of their own lives and continue talking crap to you for your picks, your analysis and your image.

End rant from a guy who has "I hate my job" as his signature.