Va Tech thoughts, opinions, and value

[PabloLoco]

Certain books have this team valued around +200 for the ACC and anywhere between +1500 to +3600 to win the BCS title (my book has +3300)

They lose Tyrod Taylor, Evans, and Williams offensively but do return one of the best O-Lines in the country and perhaps an QB of equal value in Logan Thomas. The defense should be good as usual and returns 7 starters.

Their schedule though sets up so nice to run the table

App St
@East Carolina
Arkansas St
@Marshall

Clemson
Miami
@Wake Forest
Boston College
@Duke
@Ga Tech
UNC
@Virginia

Then MAYBE FSU (who i think they would beat) in the ACC title game....

I cant see where they lose a game prior to the ACC title game, though.

Im not sure they could beat an Alabama, OU, or LSU but anything can happen.

At 33-1 type of odds, me likey a lot. Thoughts??

 

[NoCoke]

Their schedule is definitely favorable, but like you said I'm not sure they could beat one of the top teams this year. I think they would have to run the table to get in, not sure a 1 loss ACC team would end up in the championship game (especially with that cupcake schedule).

Definitely has value, mainly as a potential hedge if they do happen to end up in the MNC

 

[cloverleaf]

Ole Beamer is hard to go against. He is 153-112-7 ATS while at Virginia Tech. The Hokies are the only team in the nation with 10-win seasons each of the last seven years. He might just win ten again this year.

 

[METFAN]

Ole Beamer is hard to go against. He is 153-112-7 ATS while at Virginia Tech. The Hokies are the only team in the nation with 10-win seasons each of the last seven years. He might just win ten again this year.

DO YOU MEAN HE MAY NOT? With that schedule more than 2 losses would be a bad yr for the Hokies

a team with an undefeated record would almost be a shoe in for the title game this yr..

any probale top 10 ten that you can get at 33-1 merits some kind of wager..i'll put 450 on them at anything over 18-1

Oregon has lsu and stanford and lsu has oregon and bama...

 

[PabloLoco]

Their schedule is definitely favorable, but like you said I'm not sure they could beat one of the top teams this year. I think they would have to run the table to get in, not sure a 1 loss ACC team would end up in the championship game (especially with that cupcake schedule).

Definitely has value, mainly as a potential hedge if they do happen to end up in the MNC

obviously they must run the table.....

I've really been diving into these guys lately because i think they present tremendous value for a hedge situation. I had Oregon 50-1 last year and hedged nicely, kind of what im looking for with this bet..

 

[nascarphenom]

I hate VT, but they should win 10 games, and if they find a way to beat FSU in the championship, they could play for it all

Although, VT is 1-19 vs teams ranked in the top 5......

suck it VT...you'll always be a top 10 team that cant win a big game

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Va. Tech certainly has a very easy schedule. It is really hard to find a regular season game that they will lose, but Beamer is famous for this. They always seem to blow one at home. Last year, it was James Madison. In 2009 it was North Carolina, as a 15.5 favorite. In 2008 it was East Carolina. In 2007, it was Boston College. In 2006 it was Ga. Tech. In 2005, it was Miami. It goes on and on. Va. Tech always finds a way to blow a game at home.

 

[PabloLoco]

Va. Tech certainly has a very easy schedule. It is really hard to find a regular season game that they will lose, but Beamer is famous for this. They always seem to blow one at home. Last year, it was James Madison. In 2009 it was North Carolina, as a 15.5 favorite. In 2008 it was East Carolina. In 2007, it was Boston College. In 2006 it was Ga. Tech. In 2005, it was Miami. It goes on and on. Va. Tech always finds a way to blow a game at home.

well at that value why not take a shot that this will be the year it doesn't happen.....Plus i think this years team could be better than last as sick as that sounds.

glass half full right BigDaddy

 

[spokenword14]

took em at 35-1 over the weekend for the some of the reasons mentioned. great value for a BCS team that has a good chance to be 12-0.

 

[MikeMoodySays]

took em at 35-1 over the weekend for the some of the reasons mentioned. great value for a BCS team that has a good chance to be 12-0.

VT is definitely the team to beat in the Coastal but should UNC avoid post season ramifications, then I think they have great value at +800 to win the conference.

Strictly talking about value here, FSU/VT are the front runners. If UNC can get some good QB play, then they could be dangerous. QB and RB are there only concerns. Best of luck to all!

 

[Albatross]

VT has GT in ATL on Thurs Night....Home Dog. Just an observation. Miami in Blacksburg, should be a good game.

 

[PabloLoco]

VT is definitely the team to beat in the Coastal but should UNC avoid post season ramifications, then I think they have great value at +800 to win the conference.

Strictly talking about value here, FSU/VT are the front runners. If UNC can get some good QB play, then they could be dangerous. QB and RB are there only concerns. Best of luck to all!

Va Tech has value in the national scheme.

My value in the ACC lies with NC State at +1000 to win their division and +3000 to win the conference. Long Shot? Absolutely.

Their schedule, other than a trip to FSU, is very very manageable as far as home/away games. I honestly think they could be favored in all of them. In that trip to FSU we are also talking about team who is by no means bulletproof, I mean hell, they lost to NC State last season. Their game could truly present a ML value of +1000 on NC State IMO.

This Russell Wilson thing truly has caught my eye too. Tom O'Brien is by no means someone who will hype things and his admiration for Mike Glennon, both verbally and actively, says something to me. This is not a coach who is just fed up with Wilson's wishy/washy ways, rather someone who knows he has something in his prized QB recruit that is ready to be unleashed. Just my opinion.

Im still going through as much as i can on NC State, but as of right now if i have make a value play its them for me, hands down.

 

[SundayTiger]

You are lighting your money on fire. VA Tech will never win a BCS title.

Their OC Steinspring couldn't put his offense in a position to win against an SEC team if his life depended on it.

New QB and the yearly choke on a Thursday night game will guarantee your money up in smoke.

 

[PabloLoco]

You are lighting your money on fire. VA Tech will never win a BCS title.

Their OC Steinspring couldn't put his offense in a position to win against an SEC team if his life depended on it.

New QB and the yearly choke on a Thursday night game will guarantee your money up in smoke.

It creates a hedge opportunity.

Its obviously a longshot and its easy to say they will drop a game here and there, but comparatively speaking and their given value its a nice bet.

Anything can happen, all they have to do is get there.

 

[SundayTiger]

Oklahoma State is a much better shot in the dark than VA Tech, IMO.

Great O-line returning, QB, and the top WR in the Big 12.

They get Oklahoma at home this year too.

 

[PabloLoco]

My book dropped this down to +2800.....luckily i already hit it at +3300, but im sure this will be the sentiment for most books so if you were thinking of a little wager, just a heads up

 

[GoSooners]

I guess I'm not as high on VT as everybody else. I think they lose at least 2-3 games this year. I wasn't overly impressed with their defense last year, and they return only 5 off of that unit this year. They also lose a longtime QB. Which usually isn't good. I know at first glance they have a favorable schedule. But I would be surprised if they are able to win all of their games vs an improved Miami, NC, and Boston College teams at home. And Virginia could be a dangerous road game at the end of the season. Plus when I look at the +19 turnover margin from an 11-3 team, I usually look for a down year the next year. Teams very seldom can repeat those kinds of numbers. Especially with just 12 starters returning and a new QB.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Big addition for the Hokie defense in the return of Barquell Rivers, who missed all of last season and was an integral piece of their defense in 2009. I felt like their defense was uncharacteristically soft last year, and he's the kind of biter who can help these guys rally. Foster takes great pride in putting forth a Tenacious D and from what I read the intensity was very good among the front 7 in camp. The secondary is a perennial strength and they return 7 of 8 in the 2 deep, including the ball-hawking Hosley. This defense should excel in an ACC that is very down @ the quarterback position.

Offensively its tough to replace a guy who was as effecient as Taylor, but a big part of his efficiency was a strong reliance on the ground game. You hate to lose two talents like Williams and Evans in the backfield, but I felt like it was crowded at times for VT and having a clear #1 in David Wilson can allow them to throw the ball a little more to a very talented group of wideouts. While its a bit dicey breaking in a new starter, they really seem to like the Thomas kid and will do all that they can to do build his confidence against the early season patsies. Remember, though VT is known for Defense and Special Teams, this has been a very prolific offense and has ranked in the top quarter of the conference each of the past 3 years.

The schedule sets up nicely, as has been mentioned in almost every post in this thread. They will be DD chalk in all four non-conference games, and their 4 ACC road games are against my preseason bottom 4 ACC teams talent wise. They have had a bad habit of slipping as big favorites in games the past few years, but each of those games came after they already had a blemish on their record and the chance at national glory had evaporated. Their two toughest road games (UVA, GT) both seem them come into the game on at least 9 days rest, so they should be focused. I agree with the posters who mentioned their propensity to choke against top 5 teams (something like 1-18 lifetime) but this thread is about finding value. At greater than 30-1 on VT, I think it offers tremendous value on a team that will start the season ranked in the top 10 and probably won't play a game that sees them as less than a TD favorite until the ACC title game (only if FSU makes it).

 

[DoubleDigitHomeFav]

I really like Va. Tech this year. Hell, almost every year they are in the running. Bud Foster is a god. His defense will lead them to the top of the conference. FSU is the only obstacle I see.

 

[GoSooners]

I'll play the devil's advocate here. I see Miami being pretty much dismissed across the board because of their tough schedule. But I think man for man, Miami is athletically the best team in the ACC. The only team in the country that I see with as many blue chip recruits starting for them is Bama. I think somebody said early on that Al Golden isn't a good fit there, and everybody has seemed to follow in line with that statement. But I wouldn't be so sure about that. I want to see what he does with the QB situation. But my guess is Miami will be more of a running team this year, and it will take some pressure off of the turnover prone Harris or whoever wins the job. The defense looks pretty good. The only real weakness I can see there is lack of depth in the back 7. They can't afford any injuries. But it looks to me that their problems aren't any worse than anybody else in that division. Miami does have a tough OOC schedule. But if they go on the road and beat VT, they could very well win the tiebreaker in that division. A home win against Ohio St. early in the season could be a big confidence booster for the Canes going into conference play.