Using Vegas's Strategy Against Them?

[bscully27]

My plan - understand the strategy Vegas employs and see if we can use that against them! Details below.

So how do Vegas bookies make money year after year.
We know they leverage the 10/11 split very well and once wagers are 50% on both sides then they are profitable, but is there anything else they aim for each week and or year?
For example, what about ATS standings - Does Vegas want to be 8-8 on every team's ATS record? It seems like every year the Fav/Dog listing is 50-50. Same with the over/under. Same with the home/away.
Why is that? Does Vegas try to get 50-50 or is that a bi-product of excellent capping?

Another example, total delta from vegas line compared to actual result. In 2008, the discrepancy was -84.5, 2007=90.5, 2006=-521, 2005=236.5, 2004=14.
Aside from 05 & 06, bookies did an excellent job! Again did they want the delta to be zero (ie perfect) or is that a bi-product?


So, how would this information help us?

Well if we know the ATS margin has been high the last couple of weeks, we can expect a correction to bring it down and vice versa.

Attached is some data from StatFox with charts of the 2004-2008 seasons in table and graphical form.

Any insight and feedback is appreciated!

 

[TheShambler]

Good Luck with that

 

[Michelangelo]

Are you talking weekly cumulative spread differential here? I've graphed individual team spread differential in the past but never an accumulative spread differential.

Would love to look at the charts but although the graph is there, there are no charts drawn, at least not visible to me.

Thanks.

 

[sdf]

i think the books do NOT want their line to be close to the actual ATS margin. that would be detrimental to them as they move the line around and they could get middled.

it also makes teasers much much more valueable

 

[Factor15]

Very easy. The majority of bets taken are on the favorites therefore the lines are always inflated.

To be like the Vegas books bet the come line AKA as dogs

 

[bscully27]

Are you talking weekly cumulative spread differential here? I've graphed individual team spread differential in the past but never an accumulative spread differential.

Would love to look at the charts but although the graph is there, there are no charts drawn, at least not visible to me.

Thanks.

Michelangelo, I am taking the weekly cumulative spread. Aka sum of vegas prediction vs actual result across all games from week to week. For example, week 1 of 2008, Vegas gave 13 more points than needed then in wk2, they were off by 75.5 points.
This could be done per team but I have not gotten around to that yet.
As for the chart lines, thats odd... Try clicking the background then the foreground, or refreshing the series.

i think the books do NOT want their line to be close to the actual ATS margin. that would be detrimental to them as they move the line around and they could get middled.

it also makes teasers much much more valueable

sdf, So you are saying the proximity of actual scores compared to Vegas expected amounts is a bi-product of their capping? Ie, thats not what they were shooting for but they are getting close to it?




When looking at the graphs, there just seems to be too much symmetry occurring to be random. The week-to-week graph shows a fluctuation across zero differential which jumps out at me.

 

[CHANCE]

Maybe this info will help --

In the NFL, just throw out the spread ... It rarely matters.

As a matter of fact, I have tracked this for many, many years and the point spread comes into play an average of just 17% of all NFL games. In other words, the S/U winner covers 83% of all NFL games .... Every year, without fail. Even in the preseaon.

For example: This past preseaon, the S/U winners went 55-5-5 ATS. In other words, if you picked all the S/U winners this past preseason, you cashed an amzing 92% of your tickets.

Sounds impossible, right? Go check it out.

Currently, through Week 3 of the current NFL season, the S/U winner is 41-7 ATS (30-2 ATS the past two weeks & 11-5 Week 1).

This is not an abnormal ocurrence. Year in and year out 82-83% of ALL S/U NFL winners cover the spread. If you like a dog in the NFL, you should only bet them if you feel they can win the game.

One caveat --- Throw out the DD dogs Last year (2008 season) the spread winning record for the S/U winners was 202-44-9 ATS (Philly & Cincy played to a tie). However, if you throw out the DD (Double Digit) faves, which went 29-4 S/U, but just 14-24 ATS, your new record is 188-20-9 ATS. An amazing 90% spread winners for the S/U winners.

We are not talking about betting favorites only and we are not talking about the ATS results for the posted faves. We are talking about the teams that win the games on the field ... THE S/U WINNERS, be they dog or faves.

So, once again, if you like a SD (Single Digit) dog, you better feel secure in their chances of winning that game on the field.

I read the posts in here on Monday night, and saw so many people stating that they thought Dallas could win the game, but 8 points was just too, too many and Carolina would lose the game, but cover the spread. Remember this, it does happen, (17-18% of the time), but in an amazing 82-83% of ALL t4he NFL games, if the team loses the game, they just don't cover the spread, especially, as we said, if you throw out all games with a line of 10 or more.

By the way, in the NFL this year, only four games (final scores) have come within three points of the posted spread:
Week 1: Indy & NYG
Week 2: Indy & Atlanta
Week 3: None

I know it will come into play at times, but to worry about a ½ point here and a ½ point there is obviously a waste of time in the NFL.

You should also consider betting the ML, if you like the single digit dog. Odds are they are only going to cover the spread if they win the game S/U, so get the extra money for the win and save the juice if they lose.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS:

IF U CAN PICK S/U WINNERS IN THE NFL, U CAN B RICH !!!

MORE EXAMPLES: This is also amazing, but also true ---

Despite the SF loss this past weekend, which was the only one on the board ... The S/U winner is 25-2-2 ATS the past 29 San Fran games. The S/U winner is 46-4-1 the last 51 Philly games. The S/U winner is 29-1 the last 30 Baltimore games. The S/U winner is 31-4-1 the last 36 GB games. The S/U winner is 28-3-1 the last 32 Chicago games.

I think you get the idea ....

Good luck everyone ... Just find those S/U NFL winners and have a profitable season.

 

[JimmyJet]

thanks....now I know how to win.....just have to pick the winner of the game...so easy. Why didn't I think of that? Going to get rich.....just pick the winner.

 

[Jetplane]

And how many of those ATS wins were as dogs?

 

[CHANCE]

By theway --- To answer your other question --

After three weeks, 15 dogs have won S/U.
Week 1: Dnvr / NYJ / SF
Week 2: Oak / Hstn / NYJ / Cincy / NYG / Ariz / Balt / Chic
Week 3: Jax / Det / Cincy / Indy

 

[G$$]

bscully27

please keep us updated on how well it is doing through out the season. i am rooting for you!

 

[CHANCE]

Jimmy --- I wasn't trying to hype anyone or anything. As for why you didn't think of it --- I can't answer that.


thanks....now I know how to win.....just have to pick the winner of the game...so easy. Why didn't I think of that? Going to get rich.....just pick the winner.


And yes, just pick the winners is correct. Since you seem to doubt the numbers, go look at your NFL schedule and count them up yourself. Facts are facts, sorry they offend you.
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[dayang23]

And how many of those ATS wins were as dogs?

That's exactly the point, when u play a dog, don't take the stupid points, play the ML. The winner covers about 83% of the time, EVERY SEASON. Why is it so hard for ppl to understand if you're playing a dog, play the stupid ml instead or at least 50/50 the damn thing if you're gonna win 83% of the time if you just pick the winner. That's why ppl are losing out big time, you shouldn't be winning 1:1, it should be more, and if you lose, you don't lose 10% or whatever it is, you lose EVEN money... *sigh*

 

[JomoSmooth]

good thread.

thanks.

 

[tool21]

Here's my thoughts on the matter...


Just because a book is hitting to high or too low doesn't mean it has to come down the other way to balance it out. It can balance everything out by just hitting 50% the rest of the way.

 

[tool21]

Duplicate post...delete me

 

[lindabp1]

Interesting, plz keep us updated

 

[dayang23]

Before sunday nights game, 10/12, points didn't matter, that's 83.3%. So simple, only 2 games it mattered. Cincy winning by 3 and Washington winning by 3. Another perfect example, just pick the winner. If you played ANY DOGS this week ML, you woulda only lost 1:1, the two games mentioned above AND WOULDA WON Jacksonville ML and Denver ML. Such a simple concept, but so hard for so many to understand.

 

[BAGIANT]

As a Beverly Hills bookie once told me, " If the line supposedly makes the game even, and I get 3,4,5,10 times the action on one side over the other,aren't I now getting 3,4,5,10 times the money on an even money bet?"

Books "evening out" are in the general "lie" category as "the check is in the mail, and I won't come in your mouth!" It's all BS. Books don't make money by "evening out", they make their money by gambling. They aren't taking action to just win the juice. You wouldn't see the large sports books in Vegas if all they counted on was the juice.

Besides winning straight bets, they usually clean up on parlay cards, parlays and teasers. Not every week mind you, but enough during the season to come out with a nice profit! Those that run football contests, even when they return 100% of the money, if not even more than 100%, usually clean up on all the action that is created by players coming into the casino to place bets, play parlay cards, play video poker and slots as well as table games. They'll also eat dinner there and have drinks at the bar. You ought to see the Stations Casinos on a Friday and Saturday night when people come in to put in their entries for their Great Giveaway contest.

But overall, if you aren't a winning player, it's time to book your own action. By that I mean, play the bookie. Whatever you think you should bet, go the other way. That way you are now booking your own action, and instead of paying your bookie every week, they'll be paying you. It may take a while to get used to, but when you start to collect, you won't think twice about going against your feelings. And when you really think a game is easy, bet TWICE the amount on the other side! Simple as that!

 

[tlam10]

lol bagiant if i hd the self control to do that i would be a rich man!