Using some sort of recent performance is essential to creating a more accurate line

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Using some sort of recent performance is essential to creating a more accurate line than the oddsmakers and the marketplace. If you want to handicap using more long term, year to year trends, it is likely you need predictive stats that don't involve things like personnel changes. This takes a significant amount of creative thinking as well as an understanding of the marketplace. Many successful bettors use a weighted formula of past performance and recent performance together to determine where team has been, is currently, and, most importantly where it is likely to headed. There are many ways to skin a cat, consider it knowledge for the esoteric. Hell, you can successfully develop a handicapping model using only mistakes, like fumbles, etc. if you understand the relationships on the field and, once again, the marketplace.

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Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

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PS...I hope this will helpful in making your decisions and bets? Look for my threads for coming season and very good luck on your picks for the opening season of NFL. Looking forward to your replys,feedbacks any questions you might have with our picks and also yours.

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*****NOTE:::The handicapping information taken from Internet Sports Media and other sources connected with NFL Sports.*****Stats taken from Power Ratings Danny Sheridan power rating, Dunkel Index power,
B&Rs Expert Consensus rating, with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating ~[Cleveland OH] With Bobby Lancer Exclusive ratings & There Calculated Point Spreads With Trends & Statistics and Indicators. Intelligent Analysis of the NFL Complements From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

 

[Ekkyjaja]

BOL this season Mr.Harry. Looking forward for your picks and insights. Thank you in advance! :toast:

 

[Ekkyjaja]

Will you be around this weekend at the Ceasars 8/31/19 Sat, or 9/1/19 Sun? I private messaged you already, but just in case you don't check your inbox.
Thank you.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Sorry Ekkyjaja, I will be at Eldorado Hotel & Casino on that specific date

Will you be around this weekend at the Ceasars 8/31/19 Sat, or 9/1/19 Sun? I private messaged you already, but just in case you don't check your inbox.
Thank you.

Sorry Ekkyjaja, I will be at Eldorado Hotel & Casino on that specific date

 

[JHL]

thanks for the insight hope you have a wonder season

 

[Ekkyjaja]

Sorry Ekkyjaja, I will be at Eldorado Hotel & Casino on that specific date

Mr.Harry, I messaged you via your inbox. Hopefully we can arrange a time to see you there! Thank you.

 

[jgm4661]

I agree. There are many easy models too to create even on paper. One starting pt is team win total predictions for the year. This is what Dan Gordon did in his book " Beat the Sportsbooks" . A team w 8 wins typically scores ~ 23pts, 10 wins 26 etc. So a 10 w team vs an 8 win team wins by 3 pts on a neutral site. You then need to create a HFA # too as some teams are night and day at home vs away where others are less effected.

I do the same idea but estimate PF and PA and use last years record, win prediction totals, all personnel moves, injuries etc to get to my #s. You then do slight adjustments as the actual results roll in. Ie if an 8 w team is scoring 26 pts over the first few games , you adj their ranking to say 24 and monitor.

You need to adj your ranking for in season injuries too obviously. I usually look at the skill positions actual pts scored/game and then deduct 1/2 that amt for the injured player. ie a starting RB had 1 td/game so when hurt deduct 3.5 pts from your total.

It is not perfect but it sure reveals value when the linesmakers put out a line w some value to one side.

 

[Mattreasor]

Harry
I am finally on RX. Where are the picks??

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Hey!!! Matt great to hear from you on number 1 Forum on the internet.

Harry
I am finally on RX. Where are the picks??

Hey!!! Matt great to hear from you on number 1 Forum on the internet. I have no picks or bets for the opener this Thursday.. Will have my picks bets for>>> Sunday, September 08, 2019 will post my thread on Saturday [ Sunday's Games ] Also picks for Monday night games & Thursday will be posted early too.

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Best of luck to you this season and thanks for joining Rx Forum Matt !!!!!!