USC @ Oregon St....am i crazy????

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BEACH BUM
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Am I crazy for seeing a little bit of value on the home dog (oregon st) in this one????

This line is inflated to the max, yes the Trojans are world beaters but giving up 4 TDS on the road is too tough IMO

whatta u guys think????
 

i am an american aquarium drinker
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my book has USC -25.5....see if you can grab or buy down to a -24 for the Trojans and you have a winner.
 

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I'll say this, I play a system on Thursday Night ESPN games faithfully -- I play on every home team whether they are favorites or dogs. So far the system stands at 3-1 on the season. I'll be on Oregon State because it is a system play and I am damn glad to be getting this many points. USC may be coming off a bye week here, but they are still #1 in the nation coming off a shallacking of Ohio State and they have a HUGE bullseye on their backs. Oregon State is a young team that should be improving from game to game and it is a big plus for them to be playing this game at home.

beer.gif
 

No Respect make the Situation worsen
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Wait till the end of the week.. the line should go up
 

Noob, but not really
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Penn State shelled them 45-14 and it could have been much worse if Joe didn't put the brakes on in the 4th.

The only way this cover happens is through the back door if USC decides not to cream an in conference school and they let up in the 2nd half. USC will have this spread covered at the half.
 

Zip

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The problem here is I don't see a back door cover. USC needs big wins because the Pac 10 is down this year and Pete Carrol knows it.
 

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I love myself a juicy home dog but I feel like I'd need 40 here to consider the Beavers.

You don't think that loss that USC suffered in Corvallis two years will be lingering in their minds all week? Certainly will be in Carroll's mind.

And they have two weeks to prepare? This one is gonna get ugly..
 

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I wish I could remember where the hell I posted it before the Ohio State game, but Carroll's record with two weeks to prepare is something like 7-1 or 8-1 ats and straight up. The only loss was the Texas NC game...
 

Rx Local Motion
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I love myself a juicy home dog but I feel like I'd need 40 here to consider the Beavers.

You don't think that loss that USC suffered in Corvallis two years will be lingering in their minds all week? Certainly will be in Carroll's mind.

And they have two weeks to prepare? This one is gonna get ugly..
thank you...:103631605
 

No Respect make the Situation worsen
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Over is set at 51.. something to think of.
 

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I would take the over

USC dominates (very likely) and Oregon St. scores a couple TDs to push it over. Or it's a good game with Oregon St. hanging on til the 2H, scoring more than expected.
 

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I love myself a juicy home dog but I feel like I'd need 40 here to consider the Beavers.

You don't think that loss that USC suffered in Corvallis two years will be lingering in their minds all week? Certainly will be in Carroll's mind.

And they have two weeks to prepare? This one is gonna get ugly..

usc evened that score last year. thats a non-factor when capping this one.
trojans are the best team in the country, but osu plays this team tough year after year.
 

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when the spread is over 21 then i either do not touch the game or i just play the total. Spreads this high always tend to be decided by how long the starters stay in or a pointless td by the dog with hardly anytime left. To big of a risk if you ask me.
 

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I like Oregon St. TT over 13.5. Figure they will play behind all game and a late TD should get the job done.
 

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I posted this in another thread but it still applies
"Before people start claiming USC is going to crush Oregon State, maybe they should look at the last few times USC has visited Corvallis

2006 - USC was #3 - OSU WON 33-31
2004 - USC was #1 - OSU LOST 28-20
2000 - USC was #? - OSU WON 31-21

So USC is 1-2 in their last 3 visits and when they did win it was only by 8 points"

and even if you don't think too much in to trends you can see that the margin of victory doesn't go over 10
 

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usc evened that score last year. thats a non-factor when capping this one.
trojans are the best team in the country, but osu plays this team tough year after year.

I didn't bring that up as some sort of revenge factor. I realize they beat them last year. It was more of a "there's no way in hell we let them ruin our season up there again" type of attitude in this one..

To consider it a "non-factor" is not considering all information available to you imo..

That game Oregon State won up there was one of the more crazy games I've ever seen. You could barely even watch it on TV it was so foggy. That fog and lack of vision certainly aided in all the turnovers USC had that night. I just don't see this one being close. However, I would never lay 25 points on the road in a conference game. Just seeing this one as a romp. :toast:
 

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