Us Masters Betting: Here's hoping the Angel can get off to a flyer (Betfair.com)

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Us Masters Betting: Here's hoping the Angel can get off to a flyer


Paul Krishnamurty wonders whether Tiger Woods is still a justified favourite and is happy with his selection of big-hitting Angel Cabrera, who has all the attributes to be a US Masters winner.
Bearing in mind that the last two Masters champions were matched at over 200.0 pre-tournament, a glance at this year's halfway leaderboard appears to add fuel to theory that Augusta has become an 'outsiders course'. Of the ten players within five shots of the lead at halfway, eight started the week in triple figures, and none were below 50.0. With Augusta renowned as a hard venue to play catch up golf on; only Tiger has won from further than four back at this stage this century; the stats point to a third consecutive surprise winner.

But while they may have all appeared unlikely winners at the start of the week, there is plenty of quality on the leaderboard. Amongst the leading ten, Angel Cabrera, Jim Furyk and to a lesser extent Todd Hamilton, provide the major-winning class. Alternatively, Kenny Perry, Sergio Garcia, Tim Clark and Chad Campbell have all had their share of near-misses in grand slam events. The last pair finished 2nd and 3rd here in 2006, and there are many similarities with the leaderboard from that year.

A whole host of big names sit just one shot outside that pack, most notably Mickelson, Ogilvy and Stenson; but any of them will need need an outstanding weekend to make up lost ground. Tiger Woods is seven behind halfway leaders Perry and Campbell, so in order to win a fifth Masters title, he'll need to come from further back than he's ever managed before at Augusta.

Woods did start 'moving day' six shots behind when winning the title in 2005, though it must be added that there were far fewer players between him and runaway leader Chris Dimarco on that occasion. It will be much harder this time for Woods, Mickelson or any of the other chasers to overhaul the tightly bunched leaderboard currently in front of them.

Given the task in hand, its hard not to wonder whether Woods should still be favourite. The current 6.2 is around the biggest we've seen yet in this tournament, but anything other than a fast start today will see that price drift. Similar arguments also apply to the numerous other high class performers around the -3 or -2 scoreline. Any one of them could well make a move today and set up a strong position for Sunday, and doubtless one or two of them will. But all the previous course history suggests we should keep our halfway calculations to the leading ten at most.

Of the eight players I've advised trades on so far, only Angel Cabrera is in that leading bunch. So long as he continues to drive the ball so well, I'm confident the big-hitting Argentinian will play a central part in the weekend's proceedings, and hope to be able to 'green up' should he trade short at any stage. For me, Saturday will be about cheering him on, and hoping one of my other candidates can improve their position from further back, but for anyone looking for a halfway outright trade, Cabrera would still be my pick at 9.0.

The 2007 US Open champion also offers the best 2-ball value at 1.79 to defeat former British Open winner Todd Hamilton. Prior to the last two days, Hamilton has endured a miserable year, missing all bar two cuts with a best finish of 39th. He's never previously looked cut out for the Augusta test, whereas Cabrera has a solid course record and possesses the ideal combination to prosper here; long, straight driving and a magical touch around the greens.

Earlier in the day, Paul Casey also looks a very strong favourite against Dudley Hart. Casey's relatively slow start may owe something to after-effects from last week's win in Texas, but there's still plenty of time for the Englishman to charge up the leaderboard on a course that is absolutely ideal for his power game. He's shown excellent resilience to improve his weekend position in other recent majors, and will enjoy a significant distance advantage over PGA Tour journeyman Hart.

Selections

2-Balls

16.35 Paul Casey @ 1.65 (vs Hart)
19.35 Angel Cabrera @ 1.79 (vs Hamilton)

Already Advised

Mike Weir @ 34.0
Angel Cabrera @ 55.0
Nick Watney @ 60.0
Lee Westwood @ 75.0
Hunter Mahan @ 110.0
Andres Romero @ 140.0
Jeev Milkha Singh @ 250.0
Miguel-Angel Jiminez @ 260.0


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Betfair.com

use code "TRX100" = $100 Free for TheRX members
Joined
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Did anybody else get better odds than 54-1 on betfair?

:dancefool:dancefool
 

abcs

..
Joined
Nov 5, 2007
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I think the winner will be one of the front three guys and whilst he's already won a major, I make Cabrera the least likely to do it

hmm
 

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