US Economy Stalled

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Economic reality hit Americans hard over the weekend as newly released data showed a dramatic slowing of economic growth, a decline in consumer spending, and federal budget deficits reaching an all-time high. President Bush continued to talk up the economy stating, "We've turned the corner and we're not turning back," – surely comforting words for millions of Americans facing stagnating wages, rising costs, and mounting debt.

Millions of struggling Americans have been left behind in today's economy. New economic data released last week showed paltry 3 percent annual growth rate in the second quarter – down from the 5.4 percent average growth rate in the year ending in March – thus increasing concerns about long term job and wage growth.
Middle class consumers – fueled by rising household debt – cannot sustain economic growth. The primary culprit for slower growth was a sharp drop-off in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of our nation's economic activity. The amount of economic activity driven by consumers in the second quarter grew by only 1 percent, the weakest since the recession and a sharp decline from the 4.1 percent clip in the first quarter of 2004. At the same time, job market growth remains slow, wages continue to decline, and household debt is mounting.
"Tax-and-spend conservatives" have created a major fiscal crisis that will threaten economic growth for years. The Office of Management and Budget estimated a $445 billion budget deficit for fiscal year 2004 – $70 billion more than in 2003 and over $100 billion more than originally estimated by the Bush administration. Projected deficits of $5 trillion over the next 10 years will almost certainly drag down economic growth, reduce job and wage opportunities, and force spending cuts in critical programs aimed at helping struggling Americans.


Center for American Progress
 

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It took awhile, however, bush is pulling us out of the Clintoon/Gore recession. 9-11 didn't help, things look great moving forward.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Millions of struggling Americans have been left behind in today's economy. New economic data released last week showed paltry 3 percent annual growth rate in the second quarter – down from the 5.4 percent average growth rate in the year ending in March – thus increasing concerns about long term job and wage growth.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

3% annual growth is now "paltry"...awesome analysis!
 

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3% GDP growth IS paltry when the economy averages 3.5% productivity growth. That in an overly simplistic way describes why despite the "strongest recovery in 20 years", people still aren't buying that this spurt has made their lives any better. In the meantime think about the math I just gave...
 

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When growth is about the same as the productivity rate, guess what, no new jobs. That sums up today's jobs report. Amazing there are paid economists and pundits that missed the number so badly. It was painfully obvious that it couldn't be a good number and won't be for at least another two or three months. If business can cover the growth with what they have in workers and added productivity, why would they hire more?

My guess is that jobs report doesn't look good again until October at the earliest. Looks to me that even with the modest gains over last two months, the extra hires might be outpacing need as growth is clearly slowing below productivity gains. Pretty soon those inventory to sales deficits that economists were talking up will start abating and the job numbers likely go down somewhat before they come back up.
 

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Bush today says "more needs to be done" on the economy. He didn't say what, but I can't think of anything else could possibly come up with other than MORE TAX CUTS. I'm sure that's what it is. Or extending tax cuts, or making them permanent. Something along those lines. That's his response to all weak economic news.
 

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The United States is now owned by China, and the government is bankrupt and trillions of dollars in debt. Dollars are nothing but worthless fiat money, backed by hot air and bullshit. The world's banks have been manipulating the price of gold for years by selling their reserves short. It's all a house of cards and hurricane andrew is approaching. The only thing keeping this Titanic afloat is low interest rates causing a housing bubble, which people are using to finance a consumer-driven lifestyle and that can't go on forever. Greenspan is between a rock and a hard place and there isn't much he can do about it except to keep pumping more and more dollars into the system and hope for the best.
 

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Don't forget the ecnomaniac cheerleaders who always crow about the slightest good news neglected to mention that job data -- expected to be 228,000 jobs for July -- came to just 32,000 (that's almost as bad as a couple of months ago, when 149,000 were expected and about 1,000 were added.) Not only that, but 61,000 jobs off of those "great months" in the spring have been quietly removed due to "corrections" in accounting.

(See here.)


Phaedrus
 

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Increasing debt/interest rates, higher oil prices.

Plus you guys have Iraq and tax CUTS.(cuts??)

Bumpy times ahead methinks

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Poor US jobs figures hit markets


The US jobs market appears weaker than originally thought
US employers added just 32,000 workers to their staff numbers last month, as far weaker employment figures than expected were revealed on Friday.
The addition to the "non-farms payroll" was the lowest this year, and smaller than the most gloomy estimate.

Markets around the world dropped on the news, while the dollar lost ground against the euro and the pound.

However, unemployment dropped to 5.5%, from 5.6% in June, its lowest level since October 2001.

"We're not satisfied," US Treasury Secretary John Snow told reporters in Pittsburgh. "We're encouraged, though, by the fact that the unemployment rate came down."

The (payrolls) number was definitely beyond any pessimist's wildest imagination

Ashraf Laidi, MG Financial

The payroll figures are bad news for the world's largest economy, and for President George W Bush ahead of the presidential election in November.

They come as world stock markets are already under pressure after oil prices hit fresh record highs on Friday on fears that demand will outstrip supplies.

Crude oil prices climbed close to $45 a barrel after a fire at a major US refinery added to the catalogue of disasters undermining the market.

Estimates for new jobs in July had varied from 125,000 to 240,000, and markets around the world were stunned by the actual figure.

"This is shockingly low and that's two months in a row now, and they even revised the number down for June and May as well," said Robert MacIntosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management in Boston.

'Dollar punished'

European shares dipped on Friday afternoon after the jobs data raised concerns about US economic growth.

The French Cac and German Dax both closed down by more than 2.5%, and London's FTSE 100 by 1.7%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indexes tumbled to their lowest levels of the year..

In New York trade, the dollar was down 1.96% against the euro, which soared to $1.2279, and UK sterling rose 1% to $1.8416.

"The (payrolls) number was definitely beyond any pessimist's wildest imagination. The dollar was punished as a result," said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analysts at MG Financial in New York.

"This really confirms that the soft patch in the US economy has become slippery for the US dollar," he added.

As well as the poor July figures, payroll growth in May and June was also revised down by a cumulative 61,000, showing a weaker jobs market than previously thought.

June was revised down to 78,000 from 112,000 and May was revised down to 208,000 from 235,000.

Election battle

The news comes as the US markets are already reeling from constantly rising oil prices, while other factors have also helped bring the Dow to a five-month low.

They include worries about world oil output capacity in the wake of terrorist attacks, and an uncertain future at troubled Russian oil giant Yukos.

Thursday's fire at a refinery in Texas came on the back of news that Russia could be back-tracking on promises to lift an asset freeze on Yukos.

Responding to news of the refinery fire, US light crude traded at $44.77 a barrel overnight on Thursday, the highest in the 21-year history of crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

And London's Brent crude reached $41.50 a barrel, a record for the contract since it started trading in 1988 on the International Petroleum Exchange.


It all adds up to unwelcome news for President Bush, who has been touting his successes as an economic leader.

Democratic challenger John Kerry has accused Mr Bush of mismanaging the economy and losing jobs to other countries, and claims the benefits of growth have not been widely distributed.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3542238.stm
 

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