uno ufc fight night 15

[Uno]

I like Neer +200. Diaz is disgusting on the ground but pretty weak with his stand up and I think he could have a hard time getting Neer on the ground. I don't think we have seen Nate beat anyone substantial enough to be this heavy of a fave.

also taking Jensen +325... big dogs like this rarely cash on these cards and i don't expect this one to the majority of the time but i think the line is clearly off. i don't see anything in Gouveia's past to merit being this large of a favorite. the guy is coming down in weight and i think the line is more a relection of the change from horn to jensen and jensen's 0-2 record in the ufc. problem with that is the guy has fought two studs and gouveia is easily more beatable than Leites and Maia. not hard to sell yourself on a 3-1 dog.

this is a card where i think you could play every dog and make decent money. danzig is my next favorite play but i am having a hard time with the current price. i have that one at a toss up.

tonight could be herman's last night in the ufc (i don't know the details of his contract) so you expect him to bring everything he has. i favor him but not -260 favor him, i am laying off tho.

now someone come in here and tell me why i am wrong.

 

[terpkeg]

now someone come in here and tell me why i am wrong.[/quote]

wilson has been slugging it out with larger 205ers the past few years, ad was close to finishing an excelant striker in relic last time out. jensen couldnt stand wth villasenor the last fight i saw of his and at on time was actually swnging with his eyes closed.

jensen has been suseptable to the sub over his career and wilson is a gracie black belt

wilson comes from a better camp and jensen took the fight on short notice.

i though the line should be -400, missed the -255 when it opened at cris so layed off.

i didnt make a play here and really have no vested interest, so good luck.

 

[Uno]

thanks terp. not big bets for me but i never feel bad about getting down on big dogs.

 

[Uno]

got some of schafer +200

gouveia wins by arm bar in the second round although jensen won round one and round two was looking like a toss up.

 

[JakeT.]

With ya on Neer buddy. Might want to take a look at Mac Danzig... GL on Schaefer. I parlay Alexander and Herman for $5 just so I had someone to root for but would rather see you win your real bet haha.

 

[JakeT.]

Nice +200 win on Schaefer!

 

[Uno]

thanks man, it will keep tonight from being a total loss.

come on neer and ville!

i like danzig tonight but not at the current price.

 

[whalewager]

what asquare

 

[whalewager]

diaz will knock this mfr smooth the f out

 

[Uno]

what asquare

you type like a negro

 

[Uno]

dammit should have bet belcher... guy is a great striker but the guy acts like a phag. with that said the guy is a crappy counter puncher and if herman would have been first in the strikes he could have won it standing up.

 

[core42]

dammit should have bet belcher... guy is a great striker but the guy acts like a phag. with that said the guy is a crappy counter puncher and if herman would have been first in the strikes he could have won it standing up.

So true...if Belcher would quit sucking himself off then he would realize that with some serious work on his ground game and cardio he could be a serious threat but will continue to be a B list guy if he keeps going to Thailand to work Muay Thai instead of BJJ

 

[Uno]

guida is a monster when it comes to stamina. guy is like b- across the board on skills but he has more stamina than any other fighter i know.

unreal.

 

[Uno]

wow, neer's nose is massively f'ed up. awesome.

 

[whalewager]

good fight...think judges may give it to neer

 

[Uno]

i would have been pissed if the did. i thought he made a run at it in the third and maybe if he had gotten his back off of the canvas and gone balls out he might have back doored it but you said it.. good fight.

good entertaining card all in all. i lost some money on the UFC... whats new?

go VILLE!