Ultimate Where The Money Is At Eternal Post 08/09 Playoffs

[OccamsRazor]

(I decided we'll go with one long post so that you can see the evolution of the Pointspread. I'll paste the first 2 days results here and continue


Welcome back to, "Where The Money Is At In the Playoffs". The purpose of this post is to track the ATS record of the NBA playoffs overall. Bettors can then see where the money is at.

In previous years Home Teams, Home favorites and the UNDER have dominated and that my friends is where the money has been.

Be careful, proper money management is a must, don't get greedy thinking all you have to do is bet the Home team. Its not that easy. This is a guide to get you onto the right side or the pass.

Be careful taking the Road team and the points, you're not getting the best of it.

1st Round Results Going into Sunday April 19th

Favorites are 1-3 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 1-3 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home teams have gone 1-3 SU
Home teams are 1-3 ATS
Home Favorites are 1-3 SU
Home Dogs are 0-0 ATS
Road Dogs are 3-1 ATS
The 'Over/Under' is 4-0

Money Makers
Individual Hot Teams


Money Burners
Individual Cold Teams

OVERS
Individual Hot Teams

UNDERS
Individual Hot Teams


Comments
The first Day of the playoffs, saw an uncharacteristic 4 Overs and only 1 cover by a Home team. The pointspread did not come into play in the 4 games. The Dogs won SU and the Favorite covered the 12.

1st Round Results Going into Monday April 20th

Favorites are 4-4 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 4-4 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home teams have gone 4-4 SU
Home teams are 4-4 ATS
Home Favorites are 4-4 SU
Home Dogs are 0-0 ATS
Road Dogs are 4-4 ATS
The 'Over/Under' is 7-1

Money Makers
Individual Hot Teams


Money Burners
Individual Cold Teams

OVERS
Individual Hot Teams

UNDERS
Individual Hot Teams


Comments
The 2nd Day playoffs, saw the OVER Trend continue at 3-1.
The only game that went UNDER was Atl/Miami.
The pointspread has not come into play in the 8 games.
First day categories except the OV/UN ended 1-3.
2nd day categories ended 3-1 evening everything out at 4-4

On Monday 2 teams, Boston and San Antonio face most win situations at home.

Both must win. Teams that lose and go 0-2 face insurmountable odds of winning the series. 0-2 teams have to win 4 of the remain 5 games in order to advance. 2-0 teams only have to win 2.

You have 2 very motivated teams and 2 teams that have already accomplished their mission; win at least 1 on the RD.

Tread carefully as the pointspread has not come into play yet.

15% of the time the pointspread will affect the bet. Thats 1.5 games out of 10. Tomorrow we will have played 10 games. If you like Boston and Tonio but fear the spread, the ML is always an option.

Long way to go, trick is not to tap out

GL


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[OccamsRazor]

1st Round Results Going into Tuesday April 21th

Favorites are 5-5 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 5-5 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home teams have gone 6-4 SU
Home teams are 5-5 ATS
Home Favorites are 5-5 SU
Home Dogs are 0-0 ATS
Road Dogs are 5-5 ATS
The 'Over/Under' is 8-1 (Used 188.5 closing line)

Money Makers
Individual Hot Teams


Money Burners
Individual Cold Teams

OVERS
All games OVER so far except 1

UNDERS
Individual Hot Teams


Comments
The 2 must win teams, Boston and San Ant won tonight. Boston did not cover the 8 but won SU. First time Pointspread came
into play in 10 games.

Used the 188.5 closing on the total figuring most gamblers bet the closing line rather than the opener.

Portland faces a must show up tomorrow, can't afford to go 0-2 on homefloor or its curtains.

 

[OccamsRazor]

wanted to bring this over from a previous. post good read


http://www.vegasinsider.com/story.cfm/story/849851

 

[OccamsRazor]

good read for Tuesday 4/21

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/851037

 

[OccamsRazor]

1st Round Results Going into Wednesday April 22th

Favorites are 8-5 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 6-7 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home teams have gone 9-4 SU
Home teams are 6-7 ATS
Home Favorites are 6-7 SU
Home Dogs are 0-0 ATS
Road Dogs are 7-6 ATS
The 'Over/Under' is 11-2

Money Makers
Clev 2-0
Houst 2-0
Chicago 2-0

Money Burners
Det 0-2
Portland 0-2
Boston 0-2
OVERS
Lakers/Jazz 2-0
Portland/Hst 2-0
SanAnt/Dall 2-0


UNDERS
Individual Hot Teams


Comments
Pointspread came into play Monday for the first time and 2 more times Tuesday.

OVERS hottest category followed by Straight Up Home Teams.

Orlando faces a must win SU at home on Wednesday. Miami and New Orleans will be the more motivated team in their respective games neither wants to go 0-2. Always look to bet the more motivated team, value when you're getting points. Pass is always an option, they play more games on Thursday.

 

[OccamsRazor]

"Where The Money Is At"

Companion post, see the individual games.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/850750

 

[diop]

if miami is going to be motivated tmw, dont u think the game will go OVER then?

 

[OccamsRazor]

if miami is going to be motivated tmw, dont u think the game will go OVER then?

In the playoffs and in the regular season for that matter, motivation means DEFENSE. You win games on defense, not offense. When have you ever heard a coach say,"OK guys we need this game, go out there and drop 35 points a qtr on them!" Never.

What you hear and what players in all sports hear is "Ok guys we really need this game today. You need to clamp down on defense and shut these motherfuckers down. I'll bench any of you motherfuckers that can't rotate on defense. We need to shut these fuckers down, don't worry about the offense, we'll get our points. Shut the door."

Coaches like to use Motherfucker a lot, part of being a coach.

The thing that ignites a team and creates momentum is not a 360 slamdunk, but the defensive steal that led to that slamdunk.

 

[diop]

very true...ok gl to both of us tmw.. thanks for the great capping aswell occam!

 

[OccamsRazor]

1st Round Results Going into Thursday April 23th

Favorites are 10-6 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 7-9 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home teams have gone 11-5 SU
Home teams are 7-9 ATS
Home Favorites are 7-9 SU
Home Dogs are 0-0 ATS
Road Dogs are 9-7 ATS
Road Favorites are 0-0
The 'Over/Under' is 13-3

Money Makers
Clev 2-0
Houst 2-0
Chicago 2-0
Philly 2-0
Denver 2-0

Money Burners
Det 0-2
Portland 0-2
Boston 0-2
Orlando 0-2
New Orl 0-2

OVERS
Lakers/Jazz 2-0
Portland/Hst 2-0
San Ant/Dall 2-0
Denver/NO 2-0

UNDERS
Individual Hot Teams


Comments
Pointspread into play 4 times in 16 games

OVERS hottest category followed by Straight Up Home Teams.

Big changes beginning tomorrow as the arguably better teams head for the RD. HM/AWAY stats change check them for each team.

Jazz and Detroit face their biggest game of the season. Both are at home, getting points and are the more motivated team. First Home Dogs of the playoffs, always a profitable spot. Neither can afford to go 0-3 in 7 game series as they would need 4 straight wins to advance. Always look to bet the more motivated team. Pass is always an option, they play more games on Friday.

 

[OccamsRazor]

1st Round Results Going into Friday April 24th

Favorites are 11-8 Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 8-11 Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 13-6 SU
Home Teams are 9-10 ATS
Home Favorites are 8-10 SU
Home Dogs are 1-0 ATS
Road Dogs are 10-8 ATS
Road Favorites are 0-1
The 'Over/Under' is 13-6

Money Makers
Clev 2-0
Houst 2-0
Chicago 2-1
Philly 2-0
Denver 2-0

Money Burners
Det 0-2
Portland 0-2
Boston 1-2
Orlando 0-2
New Orl 0-2

OVERS
Lakers/Jazz 2-1
Portland/Hst 2-0
San Ant/Dall 2-1
Denver/NO 2-0

UNDERS
Individual Hot Teams


Comments
Pointspread into play 4 times in 19 games (21%) Avg is 15%

UNDERS swept 3-0 for he first time


OVERS hottest category followed by Straight Up Home Teams.

First Homedog of the playoffs; Jazz won. Detroit up next.

HM Dogs have always been high probability plays. Detroit in a must win situation at Home and getting points becomes a Play or a Pass.

Det. Philly and Houston play their first home game of the Playoffs on Friday.

Manage your bankroll. The playoffs are about picking your spots. The money is there.



"This work is presented for informational purposes only and it is not recommended for people who exhibit symptoms of addiction".

That means you, Robert, take responsability for your own shit. I don't need your wife calling me. I told her I would write a disclaimer.

 

[kingking]

Wow very much appreciated Razor! You really do a terrific job with this and I enjoy reading not only this but your writeups of the 'best bets' you really put some good time and thought into them! Thanks man and BOL!!! :toast<)<

 

[OccamsRazor]

thanks King.

Companion link, see the games individually:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/850750

 

[OccamsRazor]

Total Talk

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/852126

 

[bigal69]

excellent work occam

 

[OccamsRazor]

1st Round Results Going into Sat April 25th

Favorites are 13-9 (59%)Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 9-13 (41%)Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 15-7 SU (68%)
Home Teams are 10-12 ATS (45%)
Home Favorites are 8-11 SU (42%)
Home Dogs are 2-1 ATS (66%)
Road Dogs are 11-8 ATS (57.8%)
Road Favorites are 1-2 (33%)
The 'Over/Under' is 13-9 (59%)

Money Makers
Clev 3-0
Philly 3-0
Houst 2-1
Chicago 2-1
Denver 2-0

Money Burners
Det 0-3
Orlando 0-3
Portland 1-2
Boston 1-2
New Orl 0-2

OVERS
Lakers/Jazz 2-1
Portland/Hst 2-1
San Ant/Dall 2-1
Denver/NO 2-0

UNDERS
Clev/Det 2-1
Orl/Phil 2-1


Comments
Pointspread into play 5 times in 22 games (22%) Avg is 15%

UNDERS 6-0 last 2 days

Vegas is happy as Favorites and HM teams ATS are losing. Unhappy that OVERs are cashing.

Manage your bankroll. The playoffs are about picking your spots. The money is there.

"This work is presented for informational purposes only and it is not recommended for people who exhibit symptoms of addiction".

 

[OccamsRazor]

1st Round Results Going into Sunday April 26th

Favorites are 17-9 (65%)Straight Up (SU)
Favorites are 12-14 (46%)Against the Spread (ATS)
Home Teams have gone 18-8 SU (69%)
Home Teams are 12-14 ATS (45%)
Home Favorites are 10-12 ATS (46%)
Home Dogs are 2-2 ATS (50%)
Road Dogs are 12-8 ATS (60%)
Road Favorites are 2-2 (50%)
The 'Over/Under' is 14-12 (54%)

Money Makers
Clev 3-0
Denver 3-0
Philly 3-0
Houst 2-1
Chicago 2-1

Money Burners
Det 0-3
Orlando 0-3
New Orl 0-3
Portland 1-2
Boston 1-2

OVERS
San Ant/Dall 3-1
Portland/Hst 2-1
Denver/NO 2-1

UNDERS
Clev/Det 2-1
Orl/Phil 2-1


Comments
Pointspread into play 6 times in 26 games (23%) Avg is 15%

UNDERS on a 9-1 Run last 3 days

OVERS were 13-3 before the 9-1 UNDER run

Leading category is the HM team Straight Up hitting 69% BUT only 45% ATS. If you like the HM team, ML is the way to go.

The pointspread has affected a particulary high 23% of the wagers, mostly the HOME Team that wins (69%) but does not cover (45%) It also accounts for the RD DOGs hitting 60%
Portland +4.5 and Boston +3 are RD Dogs on Sunday

Orlando who led the NBA with the most ATS wins in the regular season, has yet to win a game ATS in the Playoffs.

Manage your bankroll this goes through June. The playoffs are about picking your spots. The money is there.

 

[OccamsRazor]

From Bogdanovich's Think Like A Sharp series: [My adds]

• [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps typically hope that the home team wins that third game straight up so they can come back strong on the road underdog (and the pre-series favorite) in the fourth game.[Portland on Sunday meets the criteria] In the minds of many sharps I talk to, that's arguably the best situation of an entire NBA playoff series. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Think about all the positives that line up in that scenario...you've got the best team (at least the pre-series favorite)...getting points...bouncing back off a loss...facing the inferior team...in a letdown spot...in front of a crowd that wore itself out cheering in Game Three![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What other scenario is that powerful in a series? Normally the dog you're taking is the inferior team. In Game Four of a typical matchup, it's the pre-series favorite. And, you've got them in an ideal situation emotionally. This is where the big money comes out. If sharps are betting Game Three...they're doing it conservatively. They really hit Game Four hard.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Now, if the road team scores an upset in that third game, the sharps will consider the home favorite in Game Four only if they're getting an affordable price. [/FONT]

Sharps will be on Portland. Public will be on Houston.

 

[jungular10]

From Bogdanovich's Think Like A Sharp series: [My adds]

• [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps typically hope that the home team wins that third game straight up so they can come back strong on the road underdog (and the pre-series favorite) in the fourth game.[Portland on Sunday meets the criteria] In the minds of many sharps I talk to, that's arguably the best situation of an entire NBA playoff series. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Think about all the positives that line up in that scenario...you've got the best team (at least the pre-series favorite)...getting points...bouncing back off a loss...facing the inferior team...in a letdown spot...in front of a crowd that wore itself out cheering in Game Three![/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What other scenario is that powerful in a series? Normally the dog you're taking is the inferior team. In Game Four of a typical matchup, it's the pre-series favorite. And, you've got them in an ideal situation emotionally. This is where the big money comes out. If sharps are betting Game Three...they're doing it conservatively. They really hit Game Four hard.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Now, if the road team scores an upset in that third game, the sharps will consider the home favorite in Game Four only if they're getting an affordable price. [/FONT]

Sharps will be on Portland. Public will be on Houston.

Portland was not the pre-series favorite (or if they were, they shouldn't have been) and in my opinion, they have no chance tonight. Houston in 6.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Portland was not the pre-series favorite (or if they were, they shouldn't have been) and in my opinion, they have no chance tonight. Houston in 6.

Portland was the the pre-series favorite, if just for the fact that they have 4 gms at Hm at home to Houstons 3.

In Bogdanovich's columns he points out that Sharps bet probabilities, not opinions. After Portland lost the first game, bettors opinions all shifted towards Houston being the better team (myself included, I was on Portland in the first Gm) the fact that Portland won the 2nd Gm but did not cover, reinforced bettors opinions that Houston was the better team.

In the 3rd game all bettors were on Houston at Home (myself included, Houston is the better team now, right?) Houston wins, but does not cover. Now bettors are really going to load up on Houston in that 4th Gm.

But as Bogdanovich points out, you now have a Portland team getting big points in a letdown spot for Houston.

Houston players are human also, after that big first game win, they thought they were better than Portland. Tonight there is a tendency for Houston to relax just a bit, Portland will be the more motivated team and with the +4' or 5 by game time, you have the more motivated team getting too many points. Probability will line things up such: 1) The 3rd game scenario will most likely repeat itself. Houston will win but not cover 2) Portland will win straight up. 3) Houston wins and covers.

Probability never changes opinions do. If Portland would have won and covered that first game, we would not be having this learning opportunity. When I took Houston in that 3rd Game it didn't feel right, I thought, "I'm I getting whipsawed? I loved a young Portland team in the first GM, now I think they're shit."

What I learned is. Portland and Houston are evenly matched. Look at their Power ratings. Probability favors the team getting points in the match ups between these 2. The Dog is now 3-0 in this series.

I'll pass in this 4th Gm cause I'm stuck in opinion land and I'm 0-4 on the Sides. On the Totals, which are more objective and less emotionally driven, I'm 3-1.

I'll watch this game from a new perspective.