Ukraine crisis: Is the noose around Putin tightening?

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BBC News, Moscow
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A "siege mentality" is setting in at the Kremlin over Ukraine
 

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The Kremlin is a very different seat of power from 10 Downing Street, the Elysee Palace or the Washington White House.

The word Kremlin means "fortress".

For hundreds of years, that is exactly what it has been, with high walls, towers and a moat; besieged by foreign invaders, from the Polish army in the early 17th Century, to Napoleon 200 years later.

Today there are no foreign armies knocking at the gates.

Yet once again the Kremlin feels threatened.

Whether these are phantom fears or grounded in reality, they are fuelling a siege mentality at the heart of Russian power - one which is dictating Kremlin policy on Ukraine and on the West.

"Putin sincerely believes that 'Orange Revolutions' in Ukraine were instigated by the US State Department and that Kiev's Association Agreement with the European Union is an EU conspiracy to take dominance of Ukraine," says political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky
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"He hates the West for it and despises it."



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Many in the Kremlin saw Ukraine's 2004 "Orange Revolution" as part of a pattern of Western encroachment
 

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This week, one of Russia's most popular newspapers, Komsomolskaya Pravda, published an article entitled, "America is tightening the Anaconda Loop around Russia".

In the piece, a Russian military analyst claimed that Washington's geopolitical doctrine was geared to squeezing Moscow into submission like a great snake.

He argued that the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR were the first two American "snake loops" around Moscow.

"Now," he concluded, "they want to build on their success by dragging Ukraine from Russia".

"The American end game is quite clear: it's global domination," claims the pro-Kremlin MP Vyacheslav Nikonov.

"The way to achieve that is to prevent the emergence of centres of power that can challenge this global domination. Russia looks more and more like a rising centre of power. So the end game is to weaken Russia."

Breakdown of trustWhen Vladimir Putin came to power 15 years ago, the language coming out of Moscow was very different.

In March 2000, Mr Putin invited then British Prime Minister Tony Blair to St Petersburg and praised him as a "wonderful partner".

A few days earlier, in a BBC interview, the Russian leader had even raised the possibility of Russia joining Nato.

"I don't see why not," Mr Putin had said, "I would not rule out such a possibility... if, and when, Russia's views are taken into account as those of an equal partner."

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"Common interests" - British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Russian President Putin 14 years ago
 

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Since then, Moscow believes its views have been ignored.


Nato maintains that the alliance's eastward enlargement in Europe has helped spread freedom, peace and stability across Europe.


The view from Moscow has been rather different.


The Kremlin has watched Nato moving closer and closer to Russia's border.


"It is part of Putin's mind, he is afraid of this," believes Sergei Aleksashenko, a former deputy finance minister in the Russian government.


"He believes the enlargement of Nato has changed the geopolitical balance in Europe and creates more dangers for Russia.


"We may disagree with those views, but if Russia's leader is afraid, that means no-one in the West was able to explain to him it is not true or reach agreement.


"It is very easy to blame Putin himself and call him paranoid, but politics is a game for two people, for two sides."





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Squeezed from two sides - Russian President Vladimir Putin faces challenges from Nato and America
 

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Instruments of power

Yet Western leaders believe it is the other way round, that it is the Russian president who has changed the geopolitical balance in Europe, by annexing Crimea and by fomenting unrest in eastern Ukraine.


They fear that President Putin's policy on Ukraine is creating huge dangers for Europe.


In this atmosphere of mutual finger-pointing there now appears to be a total lack of trust between Moscow and the West.


A senior Russian foreign policy strategist with close links to the Kremlin told me there were no Western politicians President Putin felt comfortable negotiating with on Ukraine.


He claimed that the Kremlin had warned the West "dozens of times" not to meddle in Ukraine, but that all of Moscow's warnings went ignored.


"I can't see anybody now in Russia or in the West who could stop this," he concluded.


President Barack Obama has accused Russia of a "brazen assault" on Ukraine.


There is growing evidence of direct Russian military involvement in the conflict there.


What is President Putin hoping to achieve?


"His ultimate objective is his presidency for life. So, Ukraine has no right to become a democratic, economically open state. From Putin's point of view, that would create a very bad example for Russia," believes Andrei Piontkovsky.


He predicts the Kremlin will try to "freeze" the conflict in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in such a way as to leave Kiev weak and Moscow strong.


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Source: IISS data and estimates


"If these two regions were given a special status within Ukraine, they would become Putin's instrument of destabilisation of Ukraine, his instrument for shackling Ukraine in certain geopolitical limits, like Trans-Dniester in Moldova or South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia."


How will the Kremlin respond to more Nato troops and equipment in former Soviet bloc countries?


"In political gambling, Putin respects only brutal force," says Sergei Aleksashenko.


"He does not believe in win-win solutions. He believes that in political life there is only win or lose.


"If he believes Nato bases in the Baltic or Eastern Europe will be a danger to Russia, he will find some opposite decision.


"He believes that if he allows Nato to move its bases to Russia's borders that will be the defeat of Russia. And Putin doesn't like defeats."
 

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[h=1]West's 'plan to force out Putin will backfire': Moscow claims US is exploiting Ukraine conflict in bid to force Russian president out of power[/h]
  • Ex prime minister, Sergei Stepashin, says Barack Obama lost face over Syria
  • Has accused US president of ‘propaganda’ in blaming Russia for Ukraine violence and claims he is creating new Cold War to force Vladimir Putin out
  • Has labelled Mr Obama 'a hawk who dresses up as a peacekeeper'
  • Comes as Amnesty International accuse Russia of lying over rebel weapons

The West is exploiting the Ukraine conflict in a deliberate bid to force Vladimir Putin out of power, Moscow claims.


This is the real aim of US policy, but the attempt will backfire, warned former FSB secret service chief Sergei Stepashin, who preceded Putin as prime minister.


In an open letter to Barack Obama – amid a fragile ceasefire in Ukraine – he accused the US president of ‘propaganda’ in blaming Russia for the violence in Ukraine and claiming Moscow threatens its neighbours.





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Under threat: Vladimir Putin is said to have 'hurt' Barack Obama over Syria, according to former Russian prime minister, Sergei Stepashin





He said Mr Obama was ratcheting up sanctions to ‘isolate Russia and generate a new Cold War’, aiming to hurt the country’s economy to the extent that Putin is forced out.



‘It is perfectly obvious that you are preparing grounds to loudly state your main goal: “Putin should resign”,’ he said.


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Stepashin, now head of the Russian government’s accounts chamber, claimed Putin had outplayed a ‘hurt’ Mr Obama over Syria, preventing Western military intervention, and with his peace plan had caused the US president ‘to lose face’ in Ukraine.



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Open letter: Mr Stepashin has accused Barack Obama of generating a new Cold War to force Vladimir Putin out

He added the White House was seeking to pull Europe into a conflict there, showing Mr Obama to be a ‘hawk who dresses up as a peacekeeper and can be called the father of the new Cold War’.



It comes as Russia faces claims from Amnesty International that it lied to the world in denying its troops and weaponry were supporting rebels in Ukraine.
The human rights group accuses Putin’s forces of backing militias ‘responsible for war crimes’.



It produced satellite images to back its case and ‘documented incidents of indiscriminate shelling, abductions, torture and killings’ by Moscow’s supporters.



Moscow has angrily denied its forces were deployed in Ukraine.



Last night it vowed to hit back against the EU if a new list of sanctions – which target Russian officials as well as the Kremlin’s oil and gas interests – is approved this week, saying there would ‘undoubtedly be a reaction’.



And Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko made clear that the ceasefire may not hold.



‘I am ready to fight for my country and even to die for it,’ he said.



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[h=1]Russia ships lay claim to Arctic's energy riches: Putin sends naval convoy to reopen military base[/h]
  • Move supports Vladimir Putin's claims to vast mineral wealth under ice cap
  • Russia contests Canada, Denmark, Norway and US for right to exploit riches
  • Arctic Circle estimated to hold 22 per cent of recoverable energy resources
  • Base will also supervise the Northern Sea Route between Europe and Asia


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Russia yesterday sent a naval convoy to reopen a military base in the Arctic in support of Vladimir Putin’s claims to vast energy riches under the ice cap.


The move comes the day after a ceasefire in Ukraine saw a major territorial advantage to his separatist supporters, and as Russia contests Canada, Denmark, Norway and the US for the right to exploit the mineral wealth of the Arctic.

The Arctic Circle is estimated to contain 22 per cent of global recoverable energy resources.




The base will also supervise the Northern Sea Route between Europe and Asia, viable since ice melted in the region.



The presidents of Russia and Ukraine said on Saturday that a ceasefire between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists was holding up fairly well and they discussed urgent humanitarian aid for the shattered region.





Residents and combatants in eastern Ukraine welcomed the respite in a five-month conflict that has killed at least 2,600 people but said they did not expect it to last.




They also each accused the enemy of using the truce to rebuild their forces.



The presidents also expressed support for the full involvement of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), a rights watchdog, in monitoring the ceasefire.


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Russia sent a naval convoy to reopen a military base in the Arctic in support of Vladimir Putin's claims to vast energy riches under the ice cap


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Envoys of Ukraine, Russia, the separatist leadership and the OSCE approved the ceasefire in Minsk on Friday as part of a peace roadmap that also includes an exchange of prisoners of war and establishing a humanitarian corridor for refugees and aid.


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Russia sent a navy convoy to reopen a base, which will also supervise the Northern Sea Route between Europe and Asia, viable since ice melted in the region. (File picture)







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The move to reopen the Arcctic base comes the day after a ceasefire in Ukraine saw a major territorial advantage to Putin's separatist supporters. Above, Ukrainian soldiers ride a tank on the outskirts of Mariupol



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Ukraine crisis: EU to adopt new Russia sanctions soon



he EU says new sanctions against Russia should be adopted shortly and take effect on Tuesday, despite a Kremlin warning of retaliation.




But an EU spokeswoman said the sanctions would be "reversible", depending on the situation in Ukraine.


Pro-Russian rebels and government troops are observing a fragile truce.


Russia has warned that it could block international flights through its airspace if the EU goes ahead with new measures over the Ukraine conflict.
The pro-Russian separatists have recently made big gains in eastern Ukraine. But a ceasefire agreed on Friday appears to be holding despite some sporadic shooting.


Fighting in the east has killed some 2,600 people since April.


Russia has repeatedly denied accusations by Ukraine and the West that it has been sending troops into Donetsk and Luhansk regions to help the rebels, who want to establish an independent state.
A European Commission spokeswoman said the new sanctions package targeting Russian firms and officials "is due to be formally adopted by member states through a written procedure later today, so the procedure is ongoing".


"It will then be published in the official journal of the EU, which should happen in the course of tomorrow at the latest as plans currently stand," she said.
Publication in the journal puts the sanctions into effect.




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Donetsk airport has been the scene of constant battles between rebels and government forces





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A building in Mariupol witnesses said was hit at the weekend





Earlier Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned that Moscow would respond "asymmetrically" to further sanctions.


A Russian airspace ban "could drive many struggling airlines into bankruptcy", he told a Russian daily.


"If there are sanctions related to the energy sector, or further restrictions on Russia's financial sector, we will have to respond asymmetrically... For example, restrictions in the transport sector.
"We work on the basis of friendly relations with our partners, and that's why Russia's skies are open to flights. But if we are restricted then we'll have to respond," he told Vedomosti (in Russian).


Airlines would have to pay far more for fuel if Russia blocked their routes to Asian destinations, and flight times would be longer in many cases.
Last week an EU official told the BBC that further sanctions would deepen the existing measures, affecting Russia's access to capital markets, dual-use goods which can be used for military purposes, defence equipment and some other sensitive technologies.


They would also expand the visa bans and asset freezes on Russian officials and entities, including separatist leaders in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian authorities in Donetsk region say President Petro Poroshenko is expected to visit Mariupol on Monday.
It is the last city in Donetsk region still held by the Ukrainian government and some shelling was reported there at the weekend. It is a strategic port on the route to Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russia in March.
There was also some fresh shelling near Donetsk airport. The rebels are still holding the city, and have pushed back Ukrainian forces on the outskirts.
On Sunday, Ukrainian security official Volodymyr Poliovyi said 864 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the conflict began.
So far there have been no big prisoner exchanges since the ceasefire took effect.


12-point peace roadmap - key elements

  • Ensure an immediate bilateral ceasefire
  • Carry out decentralisation of power, allowing temporary local self-government in areas of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine under a "special status" law
  • Immediately free all hostages and illegally detained persons
  • Ensure monitoring on the Ukrainian-Russian border and a security zone
  • Ensure the holding of snap local elections in Donetsk and Luhansk
  • Remove illegal armed groups, military hardware, and all fighters and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory
  • Pass a law against the prosecution and punishment of people over certain events in Donetsk and Luhansk region
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The Russian president hopes that the continuing fighting in the east, coupled with deepening economic problems will eventually soften Kiev's reluctance to compromise. Ukraine is teetering on the verge of economic collapse, avoiding bankruptcy only thanks to Western financial aid. Soaring utilities prices and likely fuel shortages in the winter will likely add to the pressure and foment discontent.

Yats is funny claiming they are fighting RUSSIANS. Did they ever imagine they could have held off Russia for five months? The rebels may have Russian help, but the main army are citizens of east Ukraine who demand independence. When Putin said "I could take Kiev in 2 weeks" this is what he was talking about , it was not a threat, but explaining that it's not ther Russian army fighting Ukraine, or they'd have won long ago! This seems a full-out rebellion with Russian arms suppoort -- of the majority working classes in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, and they have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. During the break up of Yugoslavia (even before any violence) it was all about self-determination, but in Ukraine quite the opposite. What gives?

Meanwhile, an investigation by Human Rights Watch has placed the blame for the rapid rise of the civilian death toll in and around Lugansk, where the survey took place, on Kiev’s “indiscriminate shelling” of settlements.
 

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