UGA/USC game with total play

Furmanski · Sep 7, 2009

I have done this for the past 2 years since joining the site.

Here is last year's post....

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=612634

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Here is my thought's for this year's game.

I wanted to run down a few things for the UGA/USC game that might be of interest.

First, since 1998 this is the total points scored in the game:

2008 - 21
2007 - 28
2006 - 18
2005 - 32
2004 - 36
2003 - 38
2002 - 20
2001 - 23
2000 - 31
1999 - 33
1998 - 20

That's 12 straight years that the Under has hit. (It hit in 1997 as well).

Obviously this year's total is not posted yet, so I am waiting on that.

The under has hit 12 STRAIGHT years in this game. Last year's game was UGA 14-7. I don't see any indication that this will come close to the over regardless of the number they post. I expect it to be around 38 after see these two teams play.

I will be playing UNDER and first HALF under in this one.

BOL to all.

Sportsrmylife · Sep 7, 2009

Great to see you back man. You know your Dawgs were one penalty away from covering and possibly winning that game last weekend. Score is quite misleading.

Furmanski · Sep 7, 2009

Sportsrmylife said:
Great to see you back man. You know your Dawgs were one penalty away from covering and possibly winning that game last weekend. Score is quite misleading.

Thanks man....one of the worst calls i have ever seen against Reshad Jones. Still can't believe they called that. I was fumed.

Cusipz · Sep 7, 2009

That call was ridiculous, no doubt.

bigtendominator · Sep 7, 2009

That was a awful call, but I will take it.

Furmanski · Sep 9, 2009

UNDER 38 for the game.

1st half isn't posted yet.

BOL.

Conan · Sep 9, 2009

Well done Furmanski. That kind of research is very telling. :103631605

Good luck

charliepeete · Sep 9, 2009

u know i have been waiting all year for this one again.............the o/ u came out around 39 to 40 and now down to 37.5 gl............. :laugh:

USC_TheReal · Sep 9, 2009

Furmanski!!! I was just looking for this year's post. I always enjoy your analysis. I'll be chiming in later tonight with my take on this game later tonight. If I tried to post it now, I'd get pwned in class and be answering con law questions for an hour.

charliepeete · Sep 9, 2009

Furmanski said:
UNDER 38 for the game.

1st half isn't posted yet.

BOL.

20 ????????? eazzzzzzzzzy\ under?? :laugh:

Furmanski · Sep 9, 2009

I will have a full analysis for this game either tomorrow or Friday, but the under is the play regardless. I needed to get this out and get a total offshore as early as possible.

BOL to everyone.

Thanks guys....especially Conan. I have seen this matchup for years and have a good feeling where these totals will fall from the books. Whether I am correct or not is a different matter. All you can do is know the game and know the expectations.

Furmanski · Sep 9, 2009

charliepeete said:
20 ????????? eazzzzzzzzzy\ under??

It will be less than that. It's usually a 3 point different between 1st and second half, so expecting around 17.

Furmanski · Sep 9, 2009

charliepeete said:
20 ????????? eazzzzzzzzzy\ under??

I was wrong.....just hit 1st half UNDER 19.5 at 5 dimes. Very shocked they would throw that out.

Furmanski · Sep 10, 2009

Here is the my analysis of the game.

UGA Offense – Well, the season started with great anticipation for me. UGA actually looked incredibly unstoppable against the OSU D on the first series, then reality set in. Joe Cox became moral, and the playcalling was substandard. UGA used a total of 4…..yes 4 receivers the whole game, and while they only have 6 on scholarship, there is no additional option besides AJ Green on this team. Let’s be honest, Michael Moore is not going to be a #2 receiver.

The Running game actually was a bright spot for the offense. I have read about complains (including my own) about Richard Samuel going down on first contact, yet he still gained 87 yards on 20 carries. However, let’s get serious, this was against OSU and no pressure up front. Samuel is no Knowshon, and he hasn’t seen what pressure is yet.

UGA Defense – Honestly, the intensity was tremendous. The coaching was off as far as getting to Robinson last week, but Owens, Atkins and Weston were very strong up the middle to contain OSU’s RB for 3.7 yards per carry. The secondary was another bright spot. The hard-hitting UGA D was back, and the hits were big…..including a terrible call against Reshad Jones. Bryant made 1 remakable 46-yard catch against cover 2 and showed why he's an All-American. UGA held OSU to 307 yards of offense (over 180 yards less than average of last year, and they were at home). USC and Garcia will struggle to get 250 against this D. I calculated the scoring drives OSU had…..TOTAL 38 yards to generate 24 points!!

USC Offense – Well, well, well….The self-touted QB has his year to shine. Did anyone see how long he takes to look at his receivers???? Now I know why he had 4 ints against Iowa in the Outback Bowl last year. Wow, he looks at 1 option, and 1 option only. That goodness he had SOME rushing game, or this may have been a 3-0 loss. Remember they only scored from inside the 10 on the NCSU fumble. Spurrier can’t be expected to allow this guy to open up the offense without a few receivers.

USC Defense – Very, very quick. I will be the first to admit that Matthews and Norwood are SEC class guys. They were able to get to the NCSU QB from behind more than I imagined. The Redshirt Freshman in the secondary had some incredible breakups, and the guy would be a star in this league if he didn’t play for USC. The question mark for me will be the matchup with UGA’s TE’s and the USC LB’s.

All in all, I still believe the first team to score 17 will win this game. Expecting a 0-0 first quarter, and around 7-3 at the half.

Final score UGA 14-10

BOL to all.

GoForIt · Sep 10, 2009

Furmanski said:
Here is the my analysis of the game.

UGA Offense – Well, the season started with great anticipation for me. UGA actually looked incredibly unstoppable against the OSU D on the first series, then reality set in. Joe Cox became moral, and the playcalling was substandard. UGA used a total of 4…..yes 4 receivers the whole game, and while they only have 6 on scholarship, there is no additional option besides AJ Green on this team. Let’s be honest, Michael Moore is not going to be a #2 receiver.

The Running game actually was a bright spot for the offense. I have read about complains (including my own) about Richard Samuel going down on first contact, yet he still gained 87 yards on 20 carries. However, let’s get serious, this was against OSU and no pressure up front. Samuel is no Knowshon, and he hasn’t seen what pressure is yet.

UGA Defense – Honestly, the intensity was tremendous. The coaching was off as far as getting to Robinson last week, but Owens, Atkins and Weston were very strong up the middle to contain OSU’s RB for 3.7 yards per carry. The secondary was another bright spot. The hard-hitting UGA D was back, and the hits were big…..including a terrible call against Reshad Jones. UGA held OSU to 307 yards of offense (over 180 yards less than average of last year, and they were at home). USC and Garcia will struggle to get 250 against this D. I calculated the scoring drives OSU had…..TOTAL 38 yards to generate 24 points!!

USC Offense – Well, well, well….The self-touted QB has his year to shine. Did anyone see how long he takes to look at his receivers???? Now I know why he had 4 ints against Iowa in the Outback Bowl last year. Wow, he looks at 1 option, and 1 option only. That goodness he had SOME rushing game, or this may have been a 3-0 loss. Remember they only scored from inside the 10 on the NCSU fumble. Spurrier can’t be expected to allow this guy to open up the offense without a few receivers.

USC Defense – Very, very quick. I will be the first to admit that Matthews and Norwood are SEC class guys. They were able to get to the NCSU QB from behind more than I imagined. The Redshirt Freshman in the secondary had some incredible breakups, and the guy would be a star in this league if he didn’t play for USC. The question mark for me will be the matchup with UGA’s TE’s and the USC LB’s.

All in all, I still believe the first team to score 17 will win this game. Expecting a 0-0 first quarter, and around 7-3 at the half.

Final score UGA 14-10

BOL to all.

Am I crazy or does it seem like it is around that score every year I watch it or hear it on radio here? It seems like South Carolina hangs around and hangs around, then finds a way to mess it up in the end.

Furmanski · Sep 10, 2009

Go For It said:
Am I crazy or does it seem like it is around that score every year I watch it or hear it on radio here? It seems like South Carolina hangs around and hangs around, then finds a way to mess it up in the end.

You're not crazy....Under has covered 12 years in a row. The way the game goes.

Just watch, and I will be wrong this year, but I feel like this is the right side, and I knew where they would throw out the O/U, and still liked the under.

Jlip9 · Sep 10, 2009

I could see it 14-3. Under does look good

USC_TheReal · Sep 10, 2009

Furmanski:
Tell me more about this freshman, Logan Gray. I hear Cox is out (still sick?) and Gray is in. I know nothing about this kid. Thanks.

Furmanski · Sep 10, 2009

USC_TheReal said:
Furmanski:
Tell me more about this freshman, Logan Gray. I hear Cox is out (still sick?) and Gray is in. I know nothing about this kid. Thanks.

This is from one of the best UGA beat writers out there.....

-- UGA Sports is reporting that Logan Gray took over the first-team offense yesterday and is expected to get the start on Saturday due, in part, to a lingering shoulder issue for Joe Cox.

I have spoken with multiple players who told me that isn't true. While Gray did see increased reps with the No. 1 unit, I'm told it was simply a matter of getting him better prepared for times when he is used on game day and that Joe still took the vast majority of the first-team reps.

Now, it's certainly possible UGA Sports has better sources than I do, but we'll find out for sure when we meet with Mark Richt around 4 p.m. today.

-- There was some indecision yesterday on whether Caleb King would see action this weekend, but I'm told through several sources that King does not expect to play and is still experiencing problems with the hamstring, which has limited him since he first injured it Aug. 12.

Anyways, to answer your question, he's actually a redshirt sophomore.

Logan Gray is much more of a dual-threat QB than Joe Cox, and has the ability to break contain if there is pressure on him. He is really seeing his first full season at QB this year because last year, they actually had him playing Special Teams, fielding punts.

Now, having said that he is more mobile than Cox, I am uncertain with his grasp of the full playbook the way that Cox would be. Arm strength is adequate, but he's not overpowering.

USC_TheReal · Sep 10, 2009

Furman, thanks for the insight. Yeah, who knows. It could be propaganda for all we know. Obviously Johnson (our DC) would need to prepare a slightly different game package for a mobile QB like Gray thank more of a PP like Cox.

Assuming Gray gets the nod, and based off your knowledge of him, I will say this: It seems like what UGA gains with athleticism under center (with Gray at the helm), they lose in experience. I think Johnson will be pleased with this. Also, if Gray is second on the depth chart, that kind of puts things in perspective for me, i.e., he couldn't be out Cox for the job in the first place. I'm not trying to bash Cox, but he's not exactly an all star. At least not right now. Furthermore, I like SoCar's chances in this scenario. Putting a QB with little or no game experience under center in a high profile game like this up against the pressure that SoCar's defense is great at applying does not fair well for Gray.

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Clifton Geathers (DE) is back this week for SC following his one game suspension from the bar fight (police brutality?!). Geathers was the undisputed starter coming into the season. However, after freshman DE Devin Taylor played so well against NC State, DC Johnson has said that the job is Taylor's and Geathers has to win his spot back. What this means is that SC should always have fresh legs in at DE in this game. And Geathers is itching to prove his worth and win his spot back. With Geathers, Taylor, and Matthews available for DE, the outside pressure and containment should come all day long from SC.

Also, as abysmal as the score looked last week in SC's win, I saw a lot of good things out of SC's offense. First and foremost, I can't remember the last time I saw a Carolina game with ZERO penalties from the offensive line. Last year SC averaged almost 8 penalties a game. Last week they had only three. All pass interference. This year's OL for SC is the complete polar opposite of last year's OL. Also, I am giving the offense the benefit of the doubt in hoping that we only saw about 15 to 20% of the playbook last week. We have yet to see the Wild Cock formation (that everyone is running now). Which will give SC another tool on offense, and another foe for UGA's D to prepare for. Finally, SC has yet to debut Bryce Sherman. I'm excited to see Sherman. Sherman is much like a Tryndon Holliday burner-type back. He's a tiny guy, former track runner, now on SC's roster. I'm not exactly sure how he will be used, but I assume much like Holliday out the backfield, in the slot, or in the Wild Cock.

In my opinion this one stays close, under the total, with most points coming off FGs and other special teams.

UGA wins, 15 - 13