UFL 2024

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Thanks, Dog.

Recap: 2-0
Record: 10-10

From yesterday:
"The theory going in was to Fade the consensus plays, but going into week 6 my charts show that any game where the consensus has a two to one or more advantage on a side they're hitting at 67%.
That's a play ON number not AGAINST."


Both Birmingham and St Louis hit the parameters noted above, and both covered.

Content with getting back to even I stayed off the late games, saved a little juice as I would have probably made the same two plays I used in the morning, the 67% spot on St Louis and the Over.

Here are today's consensus numbers:
Mich 6, Arl 2; Ov 4, Un 2
SA 7, DC 1; Ov 3, Un 1

Both Mich and SA have a 2-1 or better advantage.
So . . .

Mich -3'
 

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Recap: 0-1
Record: 10-11

Lost Sunday's play when Michigan won but couldn't cover the three-point spread, but a 2-1 weekend knocks my unit deficit in half, down one now plus juice.

No real differentials in consensus picks this week, except for the total in the Arlington game, 6 Ov, 1 Un.
My charts show that a game with a differential like this on the Ov/Un has a record of 4-2 so I'll ride the Over in that one.

On the side we have a winless team laying 6. They've lost a lot of close ones and I think they get in the win column today but -6? I don't know.

In the late game we have the biggest game of the season so far with St Louis facing Birmingham. Got to have action on this one right, but what?
Consensus has a slight edge Birmingham, 6-4.
The number is at -4' now, up from -4.
I lean Birmingham but I'll see how the morning game goes before deciding whether to pull the trigger on a recommendation for the late game.

Mem/Arl Ov 45'
 

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Recap: 1-0
Record: 11-11

Okay, banked a unit yesterday to get back to .500, but also have to make up for 1.1 unit in juice now. Have today and three more weeks of the regular season to get into the plus side.

Here are the consensus numbers I have for today:
Mich 3, DC 7; Ov 2, Un 5
SA 7, Hou 2; Ov 0, Un 5

Totals with a differential like I have in both games today (3 or >) have a record of 5-2. BUT, what I don't know is what the breakdown of that 5-2, what was the record for Overs what was the record for Unders.
So I'm going to go check my charts and be back with that info.

Here's what I found: Unders are 2-2, which means the real value is in the Over in these spots (like yesterday with Mem/Arl) at 3-0.
No edge for Unders.

DC and SA consensus numbers show a differential of 4 or >.
My charts show teams in this spot have a record of 6-4, so a slight edge there.

We have what I call a Flip Flop Fav in Mich/DC (when I ran the sports book we had to have our parlay cards down to the print shop on Monday morning. Wednesday night was our last chance to make any changes, for example when the team that was the original favorite was now the dog. We'd have to call the print shop and tell them to flip-flop the teams, with the new favorite being put on the left side of the card and the former favorite flip flopped to the right side of the card.)

I see three other times there were FF Favs this season and all three original Favs lost, SU; 2-0-1 ATS.
Looks like following the money is the right way to go so I'm going to lay the points with DC I hope I don't get screwed by missing out on the better line -1, 1') that was available earlier.

DC -2'
 

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From above:
"DC and SA consensus numbers show a differential of 4 or >.
My charts show teams in this spot have a record of 6-4, so a slight edge there."


Looking like that stat will be going to 6-5 after the DC game.
I'll take the second play and hope it gets a split on the day.

SA -3
 

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Recap: 1-0-1
Record: 11-12

Pulled one out of my ass with that San Antonio game.
They're down by like 11 points or something late in the game, got a TD, made the first three point conversion (I think) for the year in the UFL, and ended up winning by a field goal, giving me a push on what I was ready to mark in my charts as a loss.

Here's this week's consensus for Saturday.
Mich 10, Mem 0; Ov 3, Un 1
Birm 6, Hou 3; Ov 2, Un 2.

Looking at that 10-0 edge in the Michigan game. My normal mode of thinking is "Bookies don't stay in business by paying everyone so go against the tide," which should have me playing Memphis plus the points.
But . . . three other factors to consider.

1) Sides with a consensus edge of 4 or > are 7-4, 63%.
2) games where I had a team that had zero picks for it ars 1-1
but the one win was . . . Michigan.
3) Memphis pretty much sucks.

Layin' the wood the Panthers.

Mich -9, -112 (Her.)
 

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Correction: recap should read 0-1-1
Season record is correct though (if anyone ever sees a mistake in my records please let me know. Thanks.)
 

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Recap: 1-0-1
Record: 11-12

Pulled one out of my ass with that San Antonio game.
They're down by like 11 points or something late in the game, got a TD, made the first three point conversion (I think) for the year in the UFL, and ended up winning by a field goal, giving me a push on what I was ready to mark in my charts as a loss.

Here's this week's consensus for Saturday.
Mich 10, Mem 0; Ov 3, Un 1
Birm 6, Hou 3; Ov 2, Un 2.

Looking at that 10-0 edge in the Michigan game. My normal mode of thinking is "Bookies don't stay in business by paying everyone so go against the tide," which should have me playing Memphis plus the points.
But . . . three other factors to consider.

1) Sides with a consensus edge of 4 or > are 7-4, 63%.
2) games where I had a team that had zero picks for it ars 1-1
but the one win was . . . Michigan.
3) Memphis pretty much sucks.

Layin' the wood the Panthers.

Mich -9, -112 (Her.)
On them with you, lets get it truth!
 

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Recap: 0-1
Record: 11-13

Michigan won by 6, couldn't cover the -9 (Michigan's Bates, the league's leading kicker in points scored, has a couple of 60+ yarders this season but missed yesterday from something like 40 yards. Ugh.

With just a few games left in the season I'm running out of time to get on the plus side of the ledger.

Here are today's consensus numbers:
St L 8, DC 1; Ov 2, Un 2
Arl 6, SA 0; Ov 1, Un 4

After Michigan didn't cover yesterday, sides with a differential of four or greater is now 7-5, still decent at 58%. Both games fit that scenario today with differentials of seven on St Louis and six on Arlington.

Differentials that are totally one-sided (no picks votes for one team) are now 1-2; Arlington fits that scenario today.

Totals with a differential of three or more are 6-2; SA Un fits that scenario today, but Un are just 2-2 in this spot.

Charting today's line I see a full FG has come off St Louis, -8' down to -5 now, so without checking the latest news I'm guessing McCarron must have been announced out for the game.

St Louis and San Antonio are tied at the top of the league, both need to win today. Arlington has been eliminated, nothing to play for there. DC hanging on by a thread, need an almost impossible scenario to not be eliminated from the playoffs.

I'm going to use that 7-5 stat and start the day off with a play on St Louis. Off a loss versus Birmingham I don't think it matters if McCarron's in or out, they're going to want to beat somebody up today. And tied for the top spot in the XFL division with San Antonio I know I'll be getting a full effort from them, no need to factor in whether they'll be playing hard or not like some of the eliminated teams.
Her. has the Battlehawks at -5' right now, BM has -5 with a higher price on DC. A little more money comes in on DC and that -5 may drop to 4', but I'm grabbing it now. A full point differential at the two books if you're looking at the total, BM has 42', Her. 43'.

St L -5
 

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