UFC San Antonio

[mrpickem]

Decent Fight Night card set to go off at 430

First 3

• 2/2.06 VICTOR ALTAMIRANO +103
• 2/4.70 Altamirano Fighter Wins Inside Distance +235
• 3/1.58 CJ Vergara Wins Inside Distance -190
• 3/2.78 TREVIN GILES -108

• -Salvador brings bi KO power to the weight class in his debut with 5 KO's in his last 6 fights. He has shown a short gas tank however and that may be his downfall vs a tough customer such as Altamirano(11-2)...I see a finish in 2H of the fight.
• -DaSilva offers kind of similar 1st round ferocity with power to spare, but is also known for tiring early so as long as Vergara survives R1, he linkely finds the KO later on.
• -Giles(15-4) chin was questioned after consecutive KO losses before last fight where he rebounded to a unanimous decision showing off good grappling and decent striking chops. Parsons is 1-1 in UFC but hasn't shown nothing special. I'll back Giles’ restored durability to carry him to a split decision.

View attachment 72727

 

[mrpickem]

[2-1 +1.64u]
Still pending...
3/2.78 TREVIN GILES -108

Rest of prelims:

• 2.90/2 STEVEN PETERSON -145
• 1.44/1 ALEXANDER vs PETERSON o2½ -144
• 4/1.48 TUCKER LUTZ -271

• -Peterson (19-10) is the wily old vet with some ups and downs but his body likely won't hold up much longer taking damage and the huge weight cuts he pulls off. Alexander likes to throw but not with enough power to slow Peterson from pressing the action to most likely dominant decision.
• -Pineda has had steroid issues with 2 KO wins overturned afterwards in 2019. Peneda does have strong finishing-factor although maybe lessened off the juice. Lutz (12-2) is tough as nails and will push a relentless pace from the opening bell and capture the judge's eye(s).

 

[mrpickem]

Main Card​

• -Njokuani is a one-shot killer who prolly should be a ranked MW. Tall lanky with uncanny power "Chidi Chidi Bang Bang" has shown KO's of all type including elbows, knees to the body, spin kicks and good ole overhand right that put Marc-Andre Barriault out for 16 seconds. He did have a setback in his 2-round war with Gregory Rodrigues in Sept but will look to get back on track vs Duravev (15-4), who does have heart but nowhere near the standup to compete here. This likely ends by early KO.
  
• -Kape has won 3 straight and solidified himself as a contender. An athletic specimen, his power and speed look unnatural with only a low volume and avg TDD as faults. Perez was in the DWCS in 2017 and since then is 5-3 in the UFC with several longish layoffs for various reasons. He is a strong wrestler who will try to avoid standing with Kape. I think Kape will get the finish eventually.
• -Lee's constant barrages of 1-2 straight shots may cause a problem for Barber (11-2) early on. So long as Maycee doesn't get lulled into a lw pace kickboxing battle and she enforces her will and brawling style into the clinch or the ground, she will be fine and likely carry a unanimous if unspectacular decision.
• -"The Trains" deep gas tank keeps his chances alive deep into fights, even without substantial power of great grappling Landwehr (16-4) gets it done by staying busy and accumulating points round after round. Lingo (9-1) will offer heavy hands at least for a round or 2 and could possibly find the kill switch as both of Nate's losses in his last 11 were by KO. More likely is Lingo's a bit technically disadvantaged here and will spend most of his time stuck up against the cage and controlled.

Edit: Kape out due to medical, so cancel that and move Lutz to Main Card

 

[mrpickem]

[4-2 +2.52u]

Pending from before
4/1.48 TUCKER LUTZ -271


Rest of Main Card:

• 2/1.38 CHIDI NJOKUANI -145
• 4/3.81 Njokuani Wins Inside Distance -105
• 1/2.26 ANDREA LEE +226
• 3.98/2 NATE LANDWEHR -199

Of note: I switched to Lee as she has surprised me in the past and I just couldn't lay 270 with Maycee.

 

[mrpickem]

UFC San Antonio: Co Main Event​

Holly Holm (14-6) vs Yana Santos (14-6)

• Holms continues riding the coattails of the upset win over Rhinda Rousey 7.5 years later...how long will this last? She has gone 4-6 since winning the title that night Nov 14, 2015, with her best win probably a unanimous decision over Irene Aldana, but that was OCT 2020! She's fought once since then, a split-decision loss to Kaitlen Viera. She does remain a technical veteran even though she never lived up to the high-octane kickboxing shown early in her career. This appears a favorable matchup for the "Farmers Daughter" tonight, she comes off a nearly 2-year hiatus looking to impose her lay-and-pray fight styly on Holm...not likely. Holms by decision.

[4-6 -8.48u]
Still pending...
3.98/2 NATE LANDWEHR -199

• 3/1.27 HOLLY HOLM -237
• 2.90/2 HOLLY HOLM by Points -145
  

 

[mrpickem]

UFC San Antonio: Main Event​

Marlon Vera (20-7-1) vs Cory Sandhagen (15-4)
- Marlon Vera (20-7-1) is set to take on Cory Sandhagen (15-4) in what promises to be a thrilling UFC matchup.
- Vera is known for his highlight reel KO's but has struggled with grappling in the past, notably being controlled on the ground by Jose Aldo.
- However, Vera has improved his control grappling skills and is also dangerous with his close in clinch striking game.
- Sandhagen, a consummate game planner with great footwork, uses feints to set up excellent combos, which may slow Vera from closing the distance.
- Vera is a slow starter, but has an impressive gas tank, however, Sandhagen may be able to bank enough early rounds to secure a decision win.
- While many are expecting a 5-round banger, a more cerebral gameplan could secure the win for the Sandman.
- Regardless, fans can expect highly creative strikes from both fighters in what promises to be an exciting matchup.
- Prediction: Sandhagen Decision


[7-6 -3.21u]

• 2/1.35 CORY SANDHAGEN -148
• 2/2.80 CORY SANDHAGEN by Points +140
• 2/1.39 VERA vs SANDHAGEN o4½ -144

 

[mrpickem]

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

You closed out the night strong, carry that momentum into next weeks card.

 

[mrpickem]

Not a great night, but as @smartmoneyfollower said, I finished strong with last 6 plays cashing. I dug out of a big hole and it's always good when you can finish a day in the green.

UFC San Antonio
2/2.06 VICTOR ALTAMIRANO +103
2/4.70 Altamirano Wins Inside Distance +235
3/1.58 CJ Vergara Wins Inside Distance -190
3/2.78 TREVIN GILES -108
2.90/2 STEVEN PETERSON -145
1.44/1 ALEXANDER vs PETERSON o2½ -144
4/1.48 TUCKER LUTZ -271
2/1.38 CHIDI NJOKUANI -145
4/3.81 Njokuani Wins Inside Distance -105
1/2.26 ANDREA LEE +226
3.98/2 NATE LANDWEHR -199
3/1.27 HOLLY HOLM -237
2.90/2 Holly Holm by Points -145
2/1.35 CORY SANDHAGEN -148
2/2.80 CORY SANDHAGEN by Points +140
2/1.39 VERA vs SANDHAGEN o4½ -144
[10-6 +2.33u]