Guys,
Just following tradition and offering my thoughts on the upcoming UFC card. It looks very tightly matched, and despite recent dropouts, should prove to be fairly exciting. All lines come from Pinnacle. These are my early thoughts. I'm refraining from any final predictions until the weigh-ins, as per the usual. Just thought I'd start some conversation up earlier in the week.
Ortiz (-439) Vs. Cote (+399)
Ortiz was originally scheduled to fight Guy Mezger in their rubber match, which wasn't going to be all that competitive. After Mezger dropped out, Cote was brought up from the undercard to headline against Tito. This is very much a shark/fish match on paper, with Ortiz having three times as many fights as Cote and having faced a far higher level of competition.
Cote, of course, has nothing to lose and will get a lot of credit for even going the distance with Tito. He's 5-0 in Canadian MMA against underwhelming opposition. He can win by laying some heavy hands on Tito. I don't think Ortiz will have a lot of trouble taking it to the mat and grinding out a stoppage. People dog him, but Couture couldn't hurt him and Liddell was in his head. He is still extremely dangerous. Ortiz/No Play
Hughes (-262) Vs. St. Pierre (+242)
Hughes vies for a second welterweight title after recording five consecutive defenses in his initial run. Lackluster stand-up ability is made up for with the most damaging, devastating ground and pound in his weight class. He won a close decision over Renato Verissimo last June.
St. Pierre is in here primarily because few options existed for Hughes at this point in time. He's another Canadian MMAer with an undefeated record - but unlike Cote, he's garnered wins over durable guys like Pete Spratt and Karo Parisyan. The Canuck has terrific stand-up ability, with crisp, accurate strikes. He may represent the best striker Hughes has faced since Sakurai in 2002.
If Carlos Newton and Verissimo couldn't submit Hughes, St. Pierre sure as Hell won't. That leaves five chances to rock Hughes on the feet, and he had better not squander them. I'm dubious about his odds, since Hughes only has one KO loss in 35+ fights. If you like taking 'dogs, it's not a bad option. Hughes does not seem to be all that interested in fighting. But the odds are accurate. He should pummel St. Pierre to a stoppage in a premature bout for Georges. Hughes/No Play
Trigg (+134) Vs. Verissimo (-144)
Maybe the most competitive bout on the card - Trigg is a great wrestler with an aggressive style. He'll look to contend with Verissimo, a lanky BJJ player with an awesome guard.
This is tough. Hughes is a beast on the mat, but Verissimo controlled him and wound up without a scratch. He also came within a few miliseconds of tapping Matt. If Matt couldn't damage him, how will Trigg? Some point to Trigg's hyper-aggressive fighting style, but being a busy boy in the guard is only leaving yourself open for trouble.
On the other hand, Verissimo "came close" to submitting Hughes, but didn't. Nor could he submit Carlos Newton, though he did win decisively.
I think a stand-up fight is neutral grounds, with a slight edge to Charuto if only due to his reach. Trigg looked good against Hallman, but Hallman spent two weeks in the hospital with an infection prior to that bout. I think Charuto's guard is going to prove to be too problematic for Trigg, who will overstay his welcome there and get caught. Verissimo by submission.
Tanner (-153) Vs. Lawler (+143)
Another tough fight to call. Tanner was a 205 lb. fighter who dropped down to 185. Lawler is a 170 lb. fighter coming up to 185. Common sense says that Tanner is going to have it all over Lawler when it comes to size, strength, and experience.
The only reason Lawler's camp took the fight is because Tanner does not have a great chin, having been clocked by Rich Franklin and nearly KOed by Phil Baroni before a fortunately timed cut check. Lawler is a brawler, and if he catches Tanner on the button, he will go down.
I just think Tanner isn't going to waste a lot of time taking this to the mat and using his patented elbows to grind out a stoppage. Lawler was not setting the world on fire at 170, having lost to Spratt and Diaz. Tanner is used to scrapping with far bigger men, and I think the gulf in physical ability will be obvious early on. Tanner by stoppage.
Franklin (-319) Vs. Rivera (+300)
This should prove to be the sleeper bout of the evening. Few people seem to be giving Jorge Rivera a chance in this fight, with Franklin continuing to be something of a frontrunner for Next Big Thing.
Sorry, but I'm just not seeing it. Franklin is a solid fighter with the fundamentals locked down, but he has yet to fight a high-level opponent. His career trajectory and record does not differ much from Rivera - they've both toiled in feeder shows and have yet to face any big names. Rivera was submitted by Lee Murray a few months back, while Franklin was beaten down by unknown Japanese fighter Machida late last year.
Perhaps it's the loss to Murray - who is not considered a great submission artist - that's influenced the line. For one, I think Rivera made a tactical error in not respecting Murray's mat game. That was seen on live PPV, whereas Franklin's loss is buried in Japanese video stores.
Franklin has been competing at 205 and is cutting down for the first time on Friday. I don't know about you, but I'm not laying -300 on a guy making his debut in a new weight class. We don't know how the cutting will affect his game. And Rivera is far from a small middleweight - he's also competed at 205 and even had a bout with Tim Sylvia (!) early in his career.
In the stand-up, it's a dead heat, with both guys having power and accuracy. Franklin gets the edge on the mat, but it'll be Rivera who has the gas to go the distance if need be. Call it a gut feeling or just hope in finding a bad line, but I think Rivera surprises a lot of people on Friday. Don't judge him on the Murray fight, and don't believe Franklin's hype. Rivera by TKO
Lutter (+230) Vs. Eastman (-250)
Lutter steps in as a late replacement for Cote. Eastman is a ferocious stand-up striker who nearly KOed Michael McDonald in K-1 last April. His wrestling is very good - Lutter has a good deal less experience and is known primarily for his BJJ game.
I have yet to see Lutter fight, but I do know he was training for a bout prior to being called up and won't be taken completely off guard. If he can get Eastman down, a submission will follow. I don't think he can. Eastman by TKO
Salaverry (-132) Vs. Fryklund (+122)
Salaverry has allegedly looked very sharp in training and should be able to pick apart another late replacement in Fryklund. Salaverry by TKO
Just following tradition and offering my thoughts on the upcoming UFC card. It looks very tightly matched, and despite recent dropouts, should prove to be fairly exciting. All lines come from Pinnacle. These are my early thoughts. I'm refraining from any final predictions until the weigh-ins, as per the usual. Just thought I'd start some conversation up earlier in the week.
Ortiz (-439) Vs. Cote (+399)
Ortiz was originally scheduled to fight Guy Mezger in their rubber match, which wasn't going to be all that competitive. After Mezger dropped out, Cote was brought up from the undercard to headline against Tito. This is very much a shark/fish match on paper, with Ortiz having three times as many fights as Cote and having faced a far higher level of competition.
Cote, of course, has nothing to lose and will get a lot of credit for even going the distance with Tito. He's 5-0 in Canadian MMA against underwhelming opposition. He can win by laying some heavy hands on Tito. I don't think Ortiz will have a lot of trouble taking it to the mat and grinding out a stoppage. People dog him, but Couture couldn't hurt him and Liddell was in his head. He is still extremely dangerous. Ortiz/No Play
Hughes (-262) Vs. St. Pierre (+242)
Hughes vies for a second welterweight title after recording five consecutive defenses in his initial run. Lackluster stand-up ability is made up for with the most damaging, devastating ground and pound in his weight class. He won a close decision over Renato Verissimo last June.
St. Pierre is in here primarily because few options existed for Hughes at this point in time. He's another Canadian MMAer with an undefeated record - but unlike Cote, he's garnered wins over durable guys like Pete Spratt and Karo Parisyan. The Canuck has terrific stand-up ability, with crisp, accurate strikes. He may represent the best striker Hughes has faced since Sakurai in 2002.
If Carlos Newton and Verissimo couldn't submit Hughes, St. Pierre sure as Hell won't. That leaves five chances to rock Hughes on the feet, and he had better not squander them. I'm dubious about his odds, since Hughes only has one KO loss in 35+ fights. If you like taking 'dogs, it's not a bad option. Hughes does not seem to be all that interested in fighting. But the odds are accurate. He should pummel St. Pierre to a stoppage in a premature bout for Georges. Hughes/No Play
Trigg (+134) Vs. Verissimo (-144)
Maybe the most competitive bout on the card - Trigg is a great wrestler with an aggressive style. He'll look to contend with Verissimo, a lanky BJJ player with an awesome guard.
This is tough. Hughes is a beast on the mat, but Verissimo controlled him and wound up without a scratch. He also came within a few miliseconds of tapping Matt. If Matt couldn't damage him, how will Trigg? Some point to Trigg's hyper-aggressive fighting style, but being a busy boy in the guard is only leaving yourself open for trouble.
On the other hand, Verissimo "came close" to submitting Hughes, but didn't. Nor could he submit Carlos Newton, though he did win decisively.
I think a stand-up fight is neutral grounds, with a slight edge to Charuto if only due to his reach. Trigg looked good against Hallman, but Hallman spent two weeks in the hospital with an infection prior to that bout. I think Charuto's guard is going to prove to be too problematic for Trigg, who will overstay his welcome there and get caught. Verissimo by submission.
Tanner (-153) Vs. Lawler (+143)
Another tough fight to call. Tanner was a 205 lb. fighter who dropped down to 185. Lawler is a 170 lb. fighter coming up to 185. Common sense says that Tanner is going to have it all over Lawler when it comes to size, strength, and experience.
The only reason Lawler's camp took the fight is because Tanner does not have a great chin, having been clocked by Rich Franklin and nearly KOed by Phil Baroni before a fortunately timed cut check. Lawler is a brawler, and if he catches Tanner on the button, he will go down.
I just think Tanner isn't going to waste a lot of time taking this to the mat and using his patented elbows to grind out a stoppage. Lawler was not setting the world on fire at 170, having lost to Spratt and Diaz. Tanner is used to scrapping with far bigger men, and I think the gulf in physical ability will be obvious early on. Tanner by stoppage.
Franklin (-319) Vs. Rivera (+300)
This should prove to be the sleeper bout of the evening. Few people seem to be giving Jorge Rivera a chance in this fight, with Franklin continuing to be something of a frontrunner for Next Big Thing.
Sorry, but I'm just not seeing it. Franklin is a solid fighter with the fundamentals locked down, but he has yet to fight a high-level opponent. His career trajectory and record does not differ much from Rivera - they've both toiled in feeder shows and have yet to face any big names. Rivera was submitted by Lee Murray a few months back, while Franklin was beaten down by unknown Japanese fighter Machida late last year.
Perhaps it's the loss to Murray - who is not considered a great submission artist - that's influenced the line. For one, I think Rivera made a tactical error in not respecting Murray's mat game. That was seen on live PPV, whereas Franklin's loss is buried in Japanese video stores.
Franklin has been competing at 205 and is cutting down for the first time on Friday. I don't know about you, but I'm not laying -300 on a guy making his debut in a new weight class. We don't know how the cutting will affect his game. And Rivera is far from a small middleweight - he's also competed at 205 and even had a bout with Tim Sylvia (!) early in his career.
In the stand-up, it's a dead heat, with both guys having power and accuracy. Franklin gets the edge on the mat, but it'll be Rivera who has the gas to go the distance if need be. Call it a gut feeling or just hope in finding a bad line, but I think Rivera surprises a lot of people on Friday. Don't judge him on the Murray fight, and don't believe Franklin's hype. Rivera by TKO
Lutter (+230) Vs. Eastman (-250)
Lutter steps in as a late replacement for Cote. Eastman is a ferocious stand-up striker who nearly KOed Michael McDonald in K-1 last April. His wrestling is very good - Lutter has a good deal less experience and is known primarily for his BJJ game.
I have yet to see Lutter fight, but I do know he was training for a bout prior to being called up and won't be taken completely off guard. If he can get Eastman down, a submission will follow. I don't think he can. Eastman by TKO
Salaverry (-132) Vs. Fryklund (+122)
Salaverry has allegedly looked very sharp in training and should be able to pick apart another late replacement in Fryklund. Salaverry by TKO
