UFC 94 lines are out

[j0hnnyv]

on bookmaker:

<table class="matchupBox fontsize12" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="banner"><td colspan="2">UFC-94: "ST-PIERRE VS PENN-2" - LAS VEGAS, NV </td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="leftColumn"><small>8:00 PM</small></td><td class="rightColumn"><table class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotCell">32501</td><td class="teamCell">BJ PENN</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="826411_206_4_0_160_MU" type="checkbox">+160</label></td></tr><tr><td class="rotCell">32502</td><td class="teamCell">GEORGES ST PIERRE</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="826411_206_5_0_-200_MU" type="checkbox">-200</label></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="leftColumn"><small>8:00 PM</small></td><td class="rightColumn"><table class="" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotCell">32503</td><td class="teamCell">THIAGO SILVA</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="826413_206_4_0_240_MU" type="checkbox">+240</label></td></tr><tr><td class="rotCell">32504</td><td class="teamCell">LYOTO MACHIDA</td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"> </td><td class="selectCell"><label class=""><input class="chkbox" name="game" value="826413_206_5_0_-300_MU" type="checkbox">-300</label></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

I like machida but I love bj penn in this fight and am surprised hes the dog. great value at +160...gsp is great and beat him before by decision but bj is on another level now.

This line will even up in the next month im sure.

Thoughts?:niceback:

 

[terpkeg]

I agree with both plays.

I hit BJ yesterday at +175 for 2u. I think that was the peak. I also agree that the line will come down as fight gets closer and people are reminded of BJ's prior success going up in wieght and dominating Matt Hughes in his prime, taking out Rodrigo (i think) and Renzo Gracie and giving Machida a run for his money (from what i have heard, never saw the fight).

Anyway, I expect both guys to come in in top form and I think this is a coin flip fight.

As for Machida, I think he will completely dominate Silva. Just curious if I can get better than -300. First time around, this fight opened at Machida -140 and within 1 hour it was at -420 before settling down at -285. Then Silva got injured.

Silva in my opinion is quite overrated. He may be the next great thing, but nothing he has done in the cage leads me to think that. The Drwal fight was atrocious. He got hurt in that fight and looked like shit. (i will atribute that fight to bad cardio as he looked real gassed). The irvin fight, i believe he was takin down off the bat (havnt watche dit in a while) either way, cant take anything from that fight b/c irvin blew out his knee 40 seconds in. The Houston Alexander fight doesnt prove much as Alexander more than held his own on the feet, but was quickly taken out once the fight hit the mat. We have seen HA's ground work, so enough said there. And then, Mendez almost kicked Silva's head off. And Mendez appeared to be an undersized and overmatched LHW there to add to the silva hype machine.

Just based on what i have seen from these two in the cage. I believe that Machida will score at will on the feet and have the more proficient ground game. Silva has the "puncher's chance" but Machida may be the most elusive fighter in the game. \

I would set this pup at -450 minimum.

 

[TheBrainiac]

I agree , Silva has the punchers chance but Machida seems way too good to get caught with a wild punch , he just wont take the risk .

 

[turbozed]

Good point about Machida not taking the risk. He's one of those fighters I would regard as a 'low variance' fighter because I think you know exactly what you're going to get. He's out to win his fights and doesn't mind taking shit for it. Other fighters, you may have to worry about them trying to make a fight more 'exciting' by engaging in a brawl when they shouldn't. It's hard enough to try to handicap fighter skill based on the small amount of footage of actual fight time we get. It's a complete crapshoot, however, when a fighter decides not to fight to his advantages (think Gurgel).

Other fighters I think fit this mold are Florian and LnP-type wrestlers like Maynard. The latter are fighters I love betting on. Once you see one round where they get control and maintain it without taking risks, you pretty much know what's going to happen the next two rounds. While it's fun to see your guy win by KO after slugging it out with his opponent, it doesn't really confirm whether you were on the 'right' side or just the lucky side. Some fights you can throw out the window as uncappable because variance and luck dominate the result.

 

[HurricaneEddy]

Very good post turbozed.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

Thiago Silva is the future of the LHW division. Machida has finally got someone who poses a threat on their feet.

I don't count Sokoudjou because his 2 KO's of Lil Nog and Arona were flash punches, plus Arona isn't a striker and Lil Nog isn't a world beating striker.

Fear the Chute Boxe!!!!

 

[j0hnnyv]

UFC-94: "ST-PIERRE VS PENN-2" - LAS VEGAS, NV
8:00 PM
32501 BJ PENN +155
32502 GEORGES ST PIERRE -185

+155, people took advantage of the +160!

Silva future of the LHW division? ehhhHh maybe....but I like machida for sure this fight.

 

[terpkeg]

Thiago Silva is the future of the LHW division. Machida has finally got someone who poses a threat on their feet.

I don't count Sokoudjou because his 2 KO's of Lil Nog and Arona were flash punches, plus Arona isn't a striker and Lil Nog isn't a world beating striker.

Fear the Chute Boxe!!!!

Silva may very well be the future of the of the LHW division, but I just havnt seen any indication of it. His cardio was suspect in his UFC debut, no other fight has gone far enough to test his cardio.

He seems to leave himself open to punishment, Drwal seemed to land plenty of shots. Mendez had him hurt.

I just havnt seen it yet.