UFC 89 Predictions and Thoughts

Jim Miller

The only lines i see so far are

Chris Leben +180
Michael Bisping -220

Keith Jardine +155
Brandon Vera -175

Im leaning towards bisping but Jake T thinks leben will get a tko.

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JakeT. · Oct 14, 2008

Leben is knocking that fool out cold.

JakeT. · Oct 14, 2008

Not only is Leben better on the basis of what each fighter can and can't do, he is ripped and training his ass off. This is a much better fighter than you saw when he started out on TUF.

An in-shape Chris Leben who is committed to training is a very scary thing for any fighter. Would not be surprised at all to see Leben take out the Spider in the rematch.

<img src="http://c1.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/5/l_acb8f32f521547248cc09b43c10db280.jpg">

Rambo · Oct 14, 2008

Leben is always that wild card. He has the knockout ability but sometimes seem to lose his cool in a fight and get off track.

JakeT. · Oct 14, 2008

Rambo said:
Leben is always that wild card. He has the knockout ability but sometimes seem to lose his cool in a fight and get off track.

IMO he's much more well-rounded now and his head is as good as it's ever been since he's been training in Hawaii (per Leben's quotes).

Here's his last fight against Alessio Sakara. Notice the improved mauy-thai kicks.

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JakeT. · Oct 14, 2008

Sakara also hits MUCH harder than Bisping and didn't faze Leben.

JakeT. · Oct 14, 2008

The only way Bisping wins this fight is if it goes to the cards and he somehow manages to get himself together after being rocked more than once.

sleung · Oct 14, 2008

Leben going down faster than a fat girl on a hot dog

JakeT. · Oct 14, 2008

If freakin Matt Hammil and his sloppy boxing can rock Bisping, and Sinosic and his sloppy striking can rock Bisping, you can bet a guy with as much power as Leben who also has more technical work than both of them will put the Count's lights out.

turbozed · Oct 14, 2008

I'm on Leben. Official pick for me.

+200 at CRIS

I don't think Bisping has enough power to hurt Leben. Leben will keep coming at Bisping and will eventually caveman pummel him despite Bisping's attempts to backpedal and keep at distance. The only way I see Bisping winning is if he takes down Leben and plays the gnp/control game to a boring decision. I think Bisping has too much pride and too much confidence in his striking to do this.

1.5 units to win 3 on the Catsmasher

JakeT. · Oct 14, 2008

turbozed said:
I'm on Leben. Official pick for me.

+200 at CRIS

I don't think Bisping has enough power to hurt Leben. Leben will keep coming at Bisping and will eventually caveman pummel him despite Bisping's attempts to backpedal and keep at distance. The only way I see Bisping winning is if he takes down Leben and plays the gnp/control game to a boring decision. I think Bisping has too much pride and too much confidence in his striking to do this.

1.5 units to win 3 on the Catsmasher

Agreed 100%. I don't think Bisping even has the takedowns to win by boring LNP if he wanted to to be completely honest.

GL to us. :toast:

turbozed · Oct 14, 2008

Leben is a bit sloppy in his scrambles and people eventually find a way on top of him (Starnes and NacDonald). Leben has an underrated guard though and he's constantly striking from the bottom and looking for some subs. If Bisping finds his way on top he can stall a bit and gnp a bit (his gnp is fairly accurate). A drawn out fight like this with some stalling on the feet with some good distancing could also win this for Bisping.

Basically, I'm dreading any decision where Bisping is involved.

JakeT. · Oct 14, 2008

turbozed said:
Leben is a bit sloppy in his scrambles and people eventually find a way on top of him (Starnes and NacDonald). Leben has an underrated guard though and he's constantly striking from the bottom and looking for some subs. If Bisping finds his way on top he can stall a bit and gnp a bit (his gnp is fairly accurate). A drawn out fight like this with some stalling on the feet with some good distancing could also win this for Bisping.

Basically, I'm dreading any decision where Bisping is involved.

As am I considering the Hamill fight.

I think Bisping stands and trades and gets destroyed though. That's his bread and butter and what he knows how to do so I think he'll try it. He's a kickboxer first and foremost and I don't think the other parts of his game are that strong to be honest.

terpkeg · Oct 14, 2008

+200 is on the high side imo, but for some reason ive had trouble pulling the trigger on this one. Leben just leves himself too open. I had my biggest mma play of my life on Leben against Sakara and I was nervous as hell he was going to catch one. Ever since the Terry Martin fight Leben has seemed like a more focused fighter, but even in that fight he was gettign rocked. Bisping seems to be a different fighter at 185, but he hasnt faced any top level comp down there. I think both fighte3rs have improved dramatically in the last year and although i think bisping gets the win i cant argue with Leben at +200.

I like Jardine at +155. I just dont see how Vera can be favored against top level compitition at this stage of his career. Apparently he is going to handle the cut better this time around, but i bet Jardine comes in real focused and with a great game plan. VEra hasnt impressed in the last 1.5 years.

Im also hoping to get a good price on Carwin. I havnt seen Wain, but i know the UFC is real high on Carwin and im gonna ride Carwin and Valesquez until they burn me as the openers in their first 3 fights have been way too low.

Also like bielkheden over liaudin if i can get under -150.

Leaning towards Cane if i can get a good ++ as i think Soko's big name wins will inflate the line a little.

turbozed · Oct 15, 2008

I also like the play on Jardine at +155.

Jardine stock is really low after getting bum rushed by Wandy. In Vera, he has a fighter who fights the type of fight that Jardine is comfortable with, which is on the outside. Vera hasn't shown anything at 205, and if it was tough to make the cut the 205 once, then it should be uncomfortable the second time around too. I just don't have much faith in Vera's mental toughness and I give Jardine the advantage.

.5 units on Jardiine officially at +155

Mr_Mark · Oct 15, 2008

my picks are bisping and vera

clearx1 · Oct 15, 2008

either Leben knocks out Bisping, or the fight is going to decision where it's going to be unanimous for Bisping, especially when it's in London. i still believe Hamill beat Bisping hands down, but the home court factor a lot. i'm not going to deny Vera the victory over Jardine. at first, leaning towards Jardine, but after reviewing a few of his last fights. he does damage up close with his arm, kicks if the opponents are far. for every punch and kick he throws, he's already defending himself. Vera is going to see this and try to catch a kick and bring the fight to the ground. Vera should win this with his reach advantage, and gassing out won't be a problem this time around. going to play Vera for small at 340/200 @ -170.

i'm also liking Chris Lytle & Sokoudjou

hardys4ever2000 · Oct 15, 2008

goes to the ground i see bisping by late sub or dec. stays standing leben by tko

HatTrick · Oct 15, 2008

Are there any LEBEN BY KO props out yet?

ksta7090ks · Oct 15, 2008

mr_mark said:
my picks are bisping and vera

Way too much chalk to take for Bisping considering the line should be even at best. Look the UFC has been pushing Bisping because of the UK market. Not crazy about the competition he has been given, besides the Evans fight.
From interviews and pictures it looks like Leben is on a Qwest. He can take a punch and his grouund game and wrestling skills are at another level.
I really see leben knocking Bisping out, really do.

UFC 89 Predictions and Thoughts

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