Royler
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Since I get people asking, thought I'd throw some UFC 51 predictions up. Hopefully the thread won't get buried, but I don't see a "Other Sports" forum on the board anymore.
Live telecast hits at 10 PM ET time on Saturday, February 5. Any self-respecting fight fan should be checking it out. You're getting 5-6 marquee fights for half the price of one stolid boxing match.
Ortiz/Belfort
I see Joey O getting a lot of two-way action on this fight, with the numbers holding Belfort as a slight favorite. It's baffling. On the ever-proverbial paper, this should be the most straightforward fight on the card.
Vitor Belfort has done nothing but underwhelm in the six years since his impressive KO of Vanderlei Silva. He struggled against mid-carders in Japan, then returned to the UFC, where he was dominated by both Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture. The only fight that's saved his marquee status is a vicious cut stoppage over Marvin Eastman in '03. Impressive at the time, but I was less enthused once I saw Eastman get knocked out cold by a middleweight grappler in Travis Lutter.
Vitor's game is very simple: if he's not wary of you, he'll throw. If he is, he will morph into the most cautious, offenseless fighter on the circuit. People bet this guy based on performances he gave against C-listers nearly a decade ago. In this regard, his persona resembles Tyson's to a tee.
Ortiz has struggled lately, dominated by Couture and knocked out by Liddell. It's not the losses that should concern anyone: it's almost an honor to hang with Randy for five full rounds, and Liddell had his number from day one. But the psychological effect on Tito has been profound: he's no longer strutting into the ring with the same hubris or intensity.
Even so, when you're talking about placing a bet based on mental games, the last friggin' thing you'd do is bet on Vitor Belfort.
I'm no fan of Ortiz, but A). He's only been caught once on the feet, and B). That's Vitor's only chance to win. Submission? Forget it. Tito ran through Abu Dhabi without getting snagged, and he didn't even have the benefit of strikes there. Outwrestled? Please: Tito took down Matyushenko, who is ten times the wrestler Belfort could ever hope to be.
This fight will consist of Belfort waiting for just the right time to come in with a flurry, and while those plans are being processed in his fragile little head, Tito will clinch/trip for the takedown and hold Vitor down until the fight expires or his elbows cut Vitor's face for the stoppage.
If you'll allow me to quote from "Chasing Amy," Kevin Smith's seminal tale of unrequited love...
"Alright, now see this? This is a four-way road, OK? And dead in the center is a crisp, new, hundred dollar bill. Now, at the end of each of these streets are four people. Over here, we have a male-affectionate, easy to get along with, non-political agenda lesbian. Down here, we have a man-hating, angry as f-ck, bitter dyke. Over here, we got Santa Claus, and up here the Old Vitor Belfort. Which one is going to get to the hundred dollar bill first?"
The man-hating dyke.
"Good. Why? Because the other three are figments of your f-cking imagination!"
This fight was scheduled twice before, in '01 and '02, and Tito was a healthy favorite out of the gate. Joey, you had it right the first time.
Ortiz +105
Arlovski/Sylvia
Big Tim Sylvia is a former UFC champ who ran into two spots of bad luck: he was busted for steroids (twice!) and when he was finally allowed back in the ring, he was the victim of the most gruesome submission in UFC history. Frank Mir armbarred him with such intensity that his forearm snapped in two on camera. Before that, he was using his reach (6'8") to knock people into the third row.
Arlovski is a Russian powerhouse with the agility of a lightweight. His chin is somewhat suspect, but the vibe I get from this fight is of two guys on radically different courses. Arlovski has improved tremendously in recent years, even knocking down the granite-chinned Cabbage. (Tim had to settle for a standing TKO.) He's going to have a problem with Big Tim's reach, but I think his agility will let him get in and out without a lot of difficulty. And on the mat, I give the edge to Arlovski: Sylvia hasn't even seen the ground in a UFC fight. Who knows what he has there, but it sure hasn't been battle-tested. I don't think Sylvia will be the same fighter off the sauce and nursing a wing that sufferd a lot of trauma. Look for Andrei to either hand Tim his first KO loss or snag that arm for a quick panic tap.
Arlovski -110
Terrell/Tanner
Tanner is the UFC vet; Terrell is the UFC upstart. Terrell is getting his shot at the vacant middleweight belt because of his flash KO win over #1 ranked Matt Lindland. And he deserves it.
Tanner is a recent convert to the 185 lb. class, but it's still very hard to gauge what exactly he's capable of here. Baroni was handing him his head up until the referee made a fortunate intervention to check Tanner's cut. When the fight resumed, a gassed Baroni ate elbows. In the rematch, Baroni didn't even show up at all, taking advice to check his tempermental style too seriously. Tanner looked ridiculous, spinning around and scoring with sloppy strikes on his near-comatose opponent. Late last year, he beat Robbie LAwler by submission: Lawler was struggling at 170 and inexplicably made the move to 185.
I like Cesar Gracie to have prepared Terrell for the task at hand. We know he can punch, and we know Evan doesn't respond well to pressure on the feet. And we know Terrell is one of the best grapplers in the world, bar none. I think he's a justifiable favorite here. Taking +180 on Tanner for his experience and deadly elbows/knees is tempting, but the hype on Terrell is deserved. This will be a great fight, possibly the best of the evening. Unless Tanner can outmuscle him, he's going to get outclassed.
Pass
Briefly...
Diaz/Fickett should be a grueling three-round war, with a judge's nod going to Diaz. Too well-rounded, and too well-prepared by Cesar, who should see his boys go 2-0.
Lyle/Parisyan is another fight too close to call, though I'd lean on Lytle outworking Karo on the feet to earn a decision.
Baroni/Sell should see a highlight reel KO for Baroni, but Sell apparently knows his way around on the feet and is the better grappler. I expect Baroni to win, but who knows?
Irvin/Kyle represents a good underdog play on Kyle at +150, as most of Irvin's wins have come against fighters with losing records. Kyle's been to the big show before and shows heart. Slugfest.
Eilers/Buentello will be another stand-up war, with Buentello by far the more experienced and polished fighter. When two guys who break 240 lbs. swing, someone will go down. Buentello is 9-1 in his last ten bouts, so why not take the +150?
Louiseau/Ray is a last-minute arrangement, and I don't see short-timer Ray doing anything here.
Best Bets...
Ortiz +105
Arlovski -110
Kyle +150
Buentello +150
Best of luck to all.
Live telecast hits at 10 PM ET time on Saturday, February 5. Any self-respecting fight fan should be checking it out. You're getting 5-6 marquee fights for half the price of one stolid boxing match.
Ortiz/Belfort
I see Joey O getting a lot of two-way action on this fight, with the numbers holding Belfort as a slight favorite. It's baffling. On the ever-proverbial paper, this should be the most straightforward fight on the card.
Vitor Belfort has done nothing but underwhelm in the six years since his impressive KO of Vanderlei Silva. He struggled against mid-carders in Japan, then returned to the UFC, where he was dominated by both Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture. The only fight that's saved his marquee status is a vicious cut stoppage over Marvin Eastman in '03. Impressive at the time, but I was less enthused once I saw Eastman get knocked out cold by a middleweight grappler in Travis Lutter.
Vitor's game is very simple: if he's not wary of you, he'll throw. If he is, he will morph into the most cautious, offenseless fighter on the circuit. People bet this guy based on performances he gave against C-listers nearly a decade ago. In this regard, his persona resembles Tyson's to a tee.
Ortiz has struggled lately, dominated by Couture and knocked out by Liddell. It's not the losses that should concern anyone: it's almost an honor to hang with Randy for five full rounds, and Liddell had his number from day one. But the psychological effect on Tito has been profound: he's no longer strutting into the ring with the same hubris or intensity.
Even so, when you're talking about placing a bet based on mental games, the last friggin' thing you'd do is bet on Vitor Belfort.
I'm no fan of Ortiz, but A). He's only been caught once on the feet, and B). That's Vitor's only chance to win. Submission? Forget it. Tito ran through Abu Dhabi without getting snagged, and he didn't even have the benefit of strikes there. Outwrestled? Please: Tito took down Matyushenko, who is ten times the wrestler Belfort could ever hope to be.
This fight will consist of Belfort waiting for just the right time to come in with a flurry, and while those plans are being processed in his fragile little head, Tito will clinch/trip for the takedown and hold Vitor down until the fight expires or his elbows cut Vitor's face for the stoppage.
If you'll allow me to quote from "Chasing Amy," Kevin Smith's seminal tale of unrequited love...
"Alright, now see this? This is a four-way road, OK? And dead in the center is a crisp, new, hundred dollar bill. Now, at the end of each of these streets are four people. Over here, we have a male-affectionate, easy to get along with, non-political agenda lesbian. Down here, we have a man-hating, angry as f-ck, bitter dyke. Over here, we got Santa Claus, and up here the Old Vitor Belfort. Which one is going to get to the hundred dollar bill first?"
The man-hating dyke.
"Good. Why? Because the other three are figments of your f-cking imagination!"
This fight was scheduled twice before, in '01 and '02, and Tito was a healthy favorite out of the gate. Joey, you had it right the first time.
Ortiz +105
Arlovski/Sylvia
Big Tim Sylvia is a former UFC champ who ran into two spots of bad luck: he was busted for steroids (twice!) and when he was finally allowed back in the ring, he was the victim of the most gruesome submission in UFC history. Frank Mir armbarred him with such intensity that his forearm snapped in two on camera. Before that, he was using his reach (6'8") to knock people into the third row.
Arlovski is a Russian powerhouse with the agility of a lightweight. His chin is somewhat suspect, but the vibe I get from this fight is of two guys on radically different courses. Arlovski has improved tremendously in recent years, even knocking down the granite-chinned Cabbage. (Tim had to settle for a standing TKO.) He's going to have a problem with Big Tim's reach, but I think his agility will let him get in and out without a lot of difficulty. And on the mat, I give the edge to Arlovski: Sylvia hasn't even seen the ground in a UFC fight. Who knows what he has there, but it sure hasn't been battle-tested. I don't think Sylvia will be the same fighter off the sauce and nursing a wing that sufferd a lot of trauma. Look for Andrei to either hand Tim his first KO loss or snag that arm for a quick panic tap.
Arlovski -110
Terrell/Tanner
Tanner is the UFC vet; Terrell is the UFC upstart. Terrell is getting his shot at the vacant middleweight belt because of his flash KO win over #1 ranked Matt Lindland. And he deserves it.
Tanner is a recent convert to the 185 lb. class, but it's still very hard to gauge what exactly he's capable of here. Baroni was handing him his head up until the referee made a fortunate intervention to check Tanner's cut. When the fight resumed, a gassed Baroni ate elbows. In the rematch, Baroni didn't even show up at all, taking advice to check his tempermental style too seriously. Tanner looked ridiculous, spinning around and scoring with sloppy strikes on his near-comatose opponent. Late last year, he beat Robbie LAwler by submission: Lawler was struggling at 170 and inexplicably made the move to 185.
I like Cesar Gracie to have prepared Terrell for the task at hand. We know he can punch, and we know Evan doesn't respond well to pressure on the feet. And we know Terrell is one of the best grapplers in the world, bar none. I think he's a justifiable favorite here. Taking +180 on Tanner for his experience and deadly elbows/knees is tempting, but the hype on Terrell is deserved. This will be a great fight, possibly the best of the evening. Unless Tanner can outmuscle him, he's going to get outclassed.
Pass
Briefly...
Diaz/Fickett should be a grueling three-round war, with a judge's nod going to Diaz. Too well-rounded, and too well-prepared by Cesar, who should see his boys go 2-0.
Lyle/Parisyan is another fight too close to call, though I'd lean on Lytle outworking Karo on the feet to earn a decision.
Baroni/Sell should see a highlight reel KO for Baroni, but Sell apparently knows his way around on the feet and is the better grappler. I expect Baroni to win, but who knows?
Irvin/Kyle represents a good underdog play on Kyle at +150, as most of Irvin's wins have come against fighters with losing records. Kyle's been to the big show before and shows heart. Slugfest.
Eilers/Buentello will be another stand-up war, with Buentello by far the more experienced and polished fighter. When two guys who break 240 lbs. swing, someone will go down. Buentello is 9-1 in his last ten bouts, so why not take the +150?
Louiseau/Ray is a last-minute arrangement, and I don't see short-timer Ray doing anything here.
Best Bets...
Ortiz +105
Arlovski -110
Kyle +150
Buentello +150
Best of luck to all.
