UFC 271 expert picks and best bets ?

[HacheMan]

UFC 271 expert picks and best bets: How will Israel Adesanya-Robert Whittaker 2 and other key fights play out?​

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Israel Adesanya came up short in a bid to become a double champion last year, when he went up in weight against Jan Blachowicz. But thus far, he has been unbeatable at 185 pounds.

Former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker (23-5) is probably the division's best hope at changing that narrative. And he'll get his chance at UFC 271 on Saturday in Houston.

Adesanya (21-1) has already beaten Whittaker once, decisively. He knocked out the Aussie fighter in the second round of their title fight at UFC 243 in 2019. But Whittaker has clearly asserted himself as the division's second best. He is 11-1 overall as a UFC middleweight, and is riding a three-fight win streak over Darren Till, Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum.

Who has the edge in this highly anticipated middleweight rematch? Brett Okamoto asked several experts for their breakdowns and predictions for Saturday's main event. In addition, ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker offer their picks for Adesanya-Whittaker 2, as well as the rest of the UFC 271 card.

UFC middleweight championship: Israel Adesanya (c) vs. Robert Whittaker​

John Wood, Syndicate MMA

How Adesanya wins: Adesanya does expose himself to getting hit sometimes, He lunges in with his hands down and takes risks, but he gets away with it because he's so talented. You get that with a lot of great strikers, because their timing and vision are so good. With Adesanya, it's so hard to hit him with that second strike. You might get him with one, but it's unrealistic you get him with the second one -- and if you do get the second one, he's already countered you. His counter striking is some of the best in the business.

How Whittaker wins: Obviously, last fight's approach didn't go well, so you'd expect him to change it up. Adesanya is one of those, "You're damned if you do and damned if you don't" puzzles. Can't stay back, but can't rush forward into his counters. Getting him to the ground is probably the way to beat him, but we haven't seen anyone do that at 185 pounds. I think closing the distance to get those takedowns is damn near impossible, but Whittaker needs a takedown. Striking with Adesanya is not good for anybody. Whittaker needs to get in, dirty box, grind on the cage and get that takedown.

Prediction: Adesanya, by TKO again.

arc Montoya, Factory X

How Adesanya wins: If you're on Adesanya's side you're saying, "Let's repeat what we did. Maybe add a few new tactics, but replicate what we had success with." One of the issues Whittaker had with his darting-in-and-out style is that Adesanya throws a punch that I would call a hybrid Cuban hook, which he landed on Whittaker using that darting style, and it paid dividends.

Tale Of The Tape​

	ADESANYA	WHITTAKER
Age	32	31
Height	76	72
Reach	80.0	73.5
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Last fight	6/12/21	4/17/21

How Whittaker wins: Whittaker has to change some tactics. We just saw it in another rematch -- Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo -- where Figueiredo was able to come out and change the whole fight. He slowed it down, he introduced the calf kick and he stopped Moreno's bodylock takedown. The big question is if Whittaker can change the tactics of the fight, and not think to himself, "Well, he caught me, but I just need to have a better day and I'll catch him." Grappling- and cage wrestling-heavy first couple rounds would, I think, pay off for Whittaker.

X Factor: Time. They've both been off for a long time since their last fight. What does that look like?

Prediction: My gut says Izzy wins again

 

[HacheMan]

James Krause, Glory MMA

How Adesanya wins: Izzy has already shown what he needs to do. So just go out, mix up the strikes and stop the takedown. From what I've been hearing in interviews, Whittaker is going to shoot on him, and after Blachowicz exploited Izzy's ground game, you'd have to be an idiot not to shoot on him. Izzy needs to continue to do a good job of circling and finding the fence on takedowns.

How Whittaker wins: Even though Whittaker got knocked out in the first fight, he was doing a good job with blitz attacks. I don't mind him doing that again, but he just can't stay in the pocket. Since Izzy does such a good job with takedown defense along the fence, you need to take him down in the open mat. This fight isn't in a smaller cage at the UFC Apex, which in my personal opinion actually hurts Izzy, because he's so good at defending takedowns against the fence and his footwork is so good he can control the striking in a smaller space anyway. Whittaker has to mix in takedowns to win this fight, and he has to do it with timing.

Prediction: Izzy wins again, but in a much more competitive fight. He'll win a decision.

Duane Ludwig, Ludwig MMA

How Adesanya wins: Adesanya has the flow that Anderson Silva had when he first started fighting in the UFC, that intangible X factor. What he does really well is use a lot of motion and loose guard to draw out his opponent's strikes, and then he counters them. If people try to follow Israel, like people tried to follow Conor McGregor or Anderson Silva, they're gonna be in trouble.

How Whittaker wins: I would like to see Whittaker try to not catch Israel, but rather lead the dance. It's a cat-and-mouse game. Israel's motion is so unpredictable, you're always a step behind if you're trying to catch him. He's not even slipping your punch, he's already moving while the puncher is trying to catch up. Whittaker needs to cut him off and stay a step ahead, and he needs to throw in combinations, but they can't all be committed. He has to throw ghost punches in order to get Adesanya to lose position, so that he can follow up with the second, third and fourth punch.

Prediction: Adesanya by decision. He'll play it a little safe, because he has a lot to lose.

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Betting analysis​

STAND-UP STRIKING OFFENSE	ISRAEL ADESANYA	ROBERT WHITTAKER
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received)	11:0	10:6
Distance knockdown rate	5.0%	2.0%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch	0.02	0.14
Takedown accuracy	0%	34%
Advances per takedown/top control	1.5	2.0
Opponent takedown attempts	71	68
Takedown defense	80%	84%
Share of total ground time in control	22%	75%

Kuhn: Whittaker to win (+230); over 2.5 rounds (-250). Title fight rematches are fairly commonplace these days, and sometimes we get a very good fight the second time around.

That's what Whittaker is banking on, as he has talked about making a lot of changes since losing his title to Adesanya. Many suspect Whittaker will have improved ground game and hopefully better defense.

He has always been dangerous with his hands, but no one at middleweight has been successful in a toe-to-toe striking duel with Adesanya, and Whittaker has been dropped six times in his career -- twice by Adesanya. On the feet, this is still Adesanya's fight, and we'll need to see something new from Whittaker.

At such a steep line, there's value in expecting Whittaker to adjust his approach and make the most of his championship pedigree.

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Parker: Adesanya to win (-280); over 3.5 rounds (-187). Adesanya will look to continue his dominance of the middleweight division by defeating a familiar foe in Whittaker. In their last fight at UFC 243, over two years ago, Adesanya finished Whittaker in the second round and became the undisputed UFC middleweight champion. Adesanya has successfully defended his title three times since then, with his lone loss coming against former UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz at UFC 259 last March.

Two of Adesanya's three wins in that stretch were by decision. Since losing the middleweight belt, Whittaker has won three fights in a row by decision. I do believe Adesanya will retain the belt, however, I see this fight going a little differently than the first. I believe Whittaker won't be willing to engage in a kickboxing fight with Adesanya, and Whittaker will incorporate his wrestling in order to steal some rounds from the champ. I see this fight at worst going over 3.5 rounds as both men know each other well. With that level of familiarity, fights tend to become more methodical and go into the deeper rounds.

 

[HacheMan]

Best bets for the rest of the UFC 271 card​

Derrick Lewis vs Tai Tuivasa

Parker: Lewis to win (-190). In what should be a firefight (for as long as it lasts), Lewis and Tuivasa always put on a show. Tuivasa is coming off the biggest win of his career after knocking out Augusto Sakai. With a win over Lewis, he could be in line for a title shot in the near future. However, I don't see the fight going that way. This will be the first time in quite a bit that Lewis will not have to worry about someone wrestling him or out grappling him and for that reason, this is a favorable matchup. I am going with Lewis here. I believe he is the better athlete, better striker, and carries a tremendous amount of power. I expect Tuivasa to press forward as he usually does, but unfortunately he gets hit a ton, and in this instance that will not end well for him.

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Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson

Parker: Brunson to win (+145). After losing a one-sided decision at the hands of Whittaker, Jared Cannonier bounced back with a decision win over Kelvin Gastelum. He will be looking to make it two wins in a row as he takes on the resurging Derek Brunson at UFC 271. In my opinion, there is one path to victory for Cannonier, and that is to keep the fight standing and hope to land the knockout. However, Brunson hasn't lost, let alone been finished since 2018. Brunson is a high IQ fighter and has really leaned into his volume, cardio and wrestling to get back to the top of the division. With a five fight win streak, Brunson is looking to yet again prove the naysayers wrong by pulling off another upset as an underdog against Cannonier.

At underdog odds, I like Brunson in this spot. He is a seasoned veteran who knows his identity as a fighter and isn't looking to let his ego get in the way of a potential title shot. Look for Brunson to close the distance and out wrestle Cannonier en route to victory.

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Bobby Green vs Nasrat Haqparast

Parker: Green to win (-150). Haqparast will be looking to bounce back from his loss to Dan Hooker as he takes on the very dangerous Green. This will be a very tall task for Haqparast. Green is a great striker himself (see his fight with Rafael Fiziev), and has excellent defense as well. Between the two, the major difference will be the cardio and wrestling of Green. We have seen a maturation in his game, and Green has his biggest advantage on the ground.

Kuhn: Haqparast to win (+125). For a potential upset, consider Haqparast over the veteran Green. On the feet, Green is a willing partner for a duel, and makes quite a show of pretending his opponents aren't landing on him. But Haqparast has both better offensive accuracy, as well as striking defense. And the younger southpaw also hits a bit harder.

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Carlos Ulberg vs. Fabio Cherant


Parker: Ulberg inside the distance (-162). Riding a two fight losing streak, Cherant is running into a nightmare matchup with Ulberg. In his past two fights, Cherant was finished in the first round. I don't see this fight going any different, as Ulberg will be the better striker of the two, and he's always looking to finish. The only negative to what we have seen out of Ulberg so far is his gas tank, but I believe Ulberg lands early and often on Cherant and gets it done inside the distance.

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Two-fight parlay: Alex Perez to win (-380) and Casey O'Neill to win (-400) for an overall bet of -172

Kuhn: O'Neill over Roxanne Modaferri and Perez over Matt Schnell are both safe favorites to bet on. Both O'Neill and Perez have dominant ground skills paired with solid stand-up. But at such steep prices, these two are realistically better used in parlays.