UEFA Champions League pick

[quantumleap]

Thanks to soccerbob's suggestion, I have taken a special look at Tuesday's matchup between Premiership powerhouse Arsenal and the Dutch Eredivisie's PSV Eindhoven.

Arsenal/PSV over 2.5 and 3 -106
PSV has been in matches in the Champions League with results of 2-3 and 5-0 and in their league with results of 5-2, 5-1, 2-2 and 1-0. Their last match was with RKC Waalwijk which is a rather low-scoring team. Perhaps PSV was looking ahead to the Champions League matchup and wanted to simply get a win here.

Arsenal, on the other hand, has been a special project for me in this forum. In the Premiership they have scored 19 goals in 5 matches. My only concern perhaps is that their defense will rise to the occasion. Other than giving up 3 goals to Middlesbrough, they have only allowed 2 goals in their 4 other matches.

Nevertheless, I still believe this will at least cover the 3 goals here.

 

[quantumleap]

More Champions League fun-

Chelsea -0.5 +109 over Paris St. Germain
PSG has yet to win a match yet this season. Their record is 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. They are going against Chelsea which has a record of 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses. My only concern here is that Chelsea is a low-scoring team and there is a chance for a draw. I thought about betting 1 unit on Chelsea and 1/2 unit on the draw at +221 but I believe I have the advantage here with a Chelsea win. While Chelsea has been scoring few points they have 4 wins.

 

[miamiman]

Good analysis here buddy but they are not as clear cut as one thinks, often teams like psg raise their game for these tournaments.

Will end up taking anderlecht on the asians if i can get the right price, Val not the team of last year....

 

[quantumleap]

Good point miamiman. Teams will be playing their best for these matches. That is what concerns me about the draw. Betting the win for Chelsea and the half-unit bet on the draw would net me +0.59 if Chelsea won, +0.1 for a draw and -1.50 for a Chelsea loss.

It is Chelsea's 4 wins that gives me the confidence to win the +1.09 units. I guess that's why they call it gambling.

 

[acw]

Nevertheless, I still believe this will at least cover the 3 goals here.
Statistically spoken I fully agree with you, BUT the PSV coach has made very clear that he does not mind a draw. So PSV will close the door to start with. If Arsenal comes ahead and PSV equalises, then there will be another stand off. I would not feel too comfortable about this over.

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

Can get Chelsea -0.5 at 2.125

now (Bet365)

 

[matahari]

acw,

How do you like PSV + 1 1/2 ?

 

[quantumleap]

acw:

Are you saying PSV will try a slow-down in an effort to keep the score closer? If so, I believe that will backfire. I believe Arsenal will be able to score early. In order to get a draw PSV will have to play catch-up.

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

clearly the only way to beat arsenal is to, not play defence but, play offence (thus high scoring) and I believe hey know that. Having said that, a draw would be an excellent result for PSV.

 

[stef]

Its so nice when things go pretty much to form and they did today, basically the better teams and leagues all won.

 

[quantumleap]

Arsenal/PSV over 2.5 and 3 -106
Result: Arsenal 1, PSV 0.
The only goal scored was by PSV's defender.

Chelsea -0.5 +109 over Paris St. Germain
Result: Chelsea 3, PSG 0.

Olympique Lyonnais pk -113 over Man Utd.
Man Utd. is playing hurt, with several of their players out due to injuries. Lyon, on the other hand, has 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in the French Division 1 league. Again, I thought about betting 1 unit for the win and 1/2 unit on the tie at +225 but I've decided to just go with the advantage of having a win by Lyon.

 

[quantumleap]

Monaco +0.5 -117 vs. Liverpool
Until Liverpool beat West Brom 3-0 in the Premiership they were not a high-scoring team. Monaco has 3 victories out of 5 in the French Division 1 league. I see this match as being between equal teams. The +0.5 gives the advantage to Monaco.

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

what price did u get for Monaco +0.5, i got evens.

 

[quantumleap]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by A2345exxx:
what price did u get for Monaco +0.5, i got evens. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I got -117. Where did you get evens?

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

2.025 now at bet365

 

[DIRECTVPOLICE]

Lyon pissed away a 2 goal lead.ends 2-2

 

[quantumleap]

I feel your pain DP.

Olympique Lyonnais pk -113 over Man Utd.
Final tally: 2-2
As DirectTV Police said, Lyon was up 2-0 until Man Utd. came back to tie.

Monaco +0.5 -117 vs. Liverpool
Final tally: Liverpool 2, Monaco 0
Two of my losses have been while betting against Liverpool. I think I'll re-assess doing that again.