Chattanooga/UCONN Over 145.0
How can a mediocre team like Chattanooga possibly score points against a #1 seed that has the most imposing interior defensive presence in the nation? The answer is simple: Chattanooga likes to launch the 3-ball. There’s no better way to avoid a shot-blocking freak of nature like Thabeet than by chucking up shots from deep. Chattanooga tossed up about 800 three point shots during the season. Among the 300+ teams in Men’s NCAA Division I Basketball, Chattanooga ranked 13th in three point field goal attempts. They ranked 12th in three point field goals made. Leading the way by far is their leading scorer, Stephen McDowell, who on average jacks up about 9 three point attempts per game and hits 4 of them. He was the second leading scorer in the Southern Conference, behind only all-world Davidson guard Stephen Curry. McDowell had a fine senior season, averaging 18.6 points per game thanks in part to shooting 43% from deep and 80% from the charity stripe. The Mocs also get a lot of scoring from 2 senior forwards, Nicchaeus Doaks (13.9 ppg and 8.7 reb) and Kevin Gaffney (13.3 ppg and 6.9 reb). Beyond their top 3 scorers, their 4th, 5th, and 6th leading scorers are comprised of 2 seniors and a junior. The Mocs have plenty of experience, and given the fact that they are ridiculously upperclassmen-heavy, they should avoid the “deer in the headlights” syndrome that other #16 seeds suffer from.
Chattanooga averages about 77 points per game, but the best part is they play absolutely no defense. Doaks averages 1 block per game for Chattanooga, and no other player on their entire roster even averages half a block per game. They don’t contest shots at all. They yield about 77 points per game to their opponents, and UCONN should have no trouble eclipsing this average. Dyson being out for UCONN will not affect the Huskies offense at all because Chattanooga plays a fast tempo game and they have nothing defensively. UCONN ironically averages about 77 points per game, which of course has come against much stiffer defenses than the Mocs put on the floor. Is it possible that Chattanooga hasn’t faced a powerhouse like UCONN this year, so maybe they will struggle to score against a great team? Not if history is any indication. Prior to conference play, Chattanooga scored 75 points against Tennessee, 75 points against Missouri, 71 points against Memphis, and in 2 conference games against Davidson they averaged 82.5 points per game. All of these points were scored in losing efforts; one could easily make the argument that the Mocs have a flair for the dramatic. They like to go down in flames.
Even minus Dyson, UCONN should be able to get plenty of scoring from Price, Adrien, Thabeet, Walker, Robinson, and Austrie against a team that basically rolls out the red carpet for teams to score on them. UCONN does not attempt many 3 point shots, which is a good thing in this case because they’ll get a multitude of easy baskets if they go inside early and often against the Mocs. The Huskies should easily score 85+ points in this game in their sleep, which means if the Mocs can break the 60 point barrier then this game should go over the total. The Mocs should be able to reach the mid 60’s just by gunning 3’s for most of the game, and then possibly getting some junk interior scoring late in the game when Calhoun pulls out his starters and the game takes on the feel of a run n’ gun backyard pickup game. There’s at least 10 points of value in playing this over according to my capping methods, so feel confident about the total going over 145.0. I’ll leave you with one last interesting tidbit which hopefully foreshadows a winning play:
These 2 programs have only met one other time… on March 16, 1995 the Huskies and Mocs played for the first and only time in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. UCONN was a #2 seed and beat #15 seeded Chattanooga by a score of 100-71. That’s a lot of points.
Sorry it was a little wordy
hno:
Best of luck to all in the first and second rounds! :godown:
How can a mediocre team like Chattanooga possibly score points against a #1 seed that has the most imposing interior defensive presence in the nation? The answer is simple: Chattanooga likes to launch the 3-ball. There’s no better way to avoid a shot-blocking freak of nature like Thabeet than by chucking up shots from deep. Chattanooga tossed up about 800 three point shots during the season. Among the 300+ teams in Men’s NCAA Division I Basketball, Chattanooga ranked 13th in three point field goal attempts. They ranked 12th in three point field goals made. Leading the way by far is their leading scorer, Stephen McDowell, who on average jacks up about 9 three point attempts per game and hits 4 of them. He was the second leading scorer in the Southern Conference, behind only all-world Davidson guard Stephen Curry. McDowell had a fine senior season, averaging 18.6 points per game thanks in part to shooting 43% from deep and 80% from the charity stripe. The Mocs also get a lot of scoring from 2 senior forwards, Nicchaeus Doaks (13.9 ppg and 8.7 reb) and Kevin Gaffney (13.3 ppg and 6.9 reb). Beyond their top 3 scorers, their 4th, 5th, and 6th leading scorers are comprised of 2 seniors and a junior. The Mocs have plenty of experience, and given the fact that they are ridiculously upperclassmen-heavy, they should avoid the “deer in the headlights” syndrome that other #16 seeds suffer from.
Chattanooga averages about 77 points per game, but the best part is they play absolutely no defense. Doaks averages 1 block per game for Chattanooga, and no other player on their entire roster even averages half a block per game. They don’t contest shots at all. They yield about 77 points per game to their opponents, and UCONN should have no trouble eclipsing this average. Dyson being out for UCONN will not affect the Huskies offense at all because Chattanooga plays a fast tempo game and they have nothing defensively. UCONN ironically averages about 77 points per game, which of course has come against much stiffer defenses than the Mocs put on the floor. Is it possible that Chattanooga hasn’t faced a powerhouse like UCONN this year, so maybe they will struggle to score against a great team? Not if history is any indication. Prior to conference play, Chattanooga scored 75 points against Tennessee, 75 points against Missouri, 71 points against Memphis, and in 2 conference games against Davidson they averaged 82.5 points per game. All of these points were scored in losing efforts; one could easily make the argument that the Mocs have a flair for the dramatic. They like to go down in flames.
Even minus Dyson, UCONN should be able to get plenty of scoring from Price, Adrien, Thabeet, Walker, Robinson, and Austrie against a team that basically rolls out the red carpet for teams to score on them. UCONN does not attempt many 3 point shots, which is a good thing in this case because they’ll get a multitude of easy baskets if they go inside early and often against the Mocs. The Huskies should easily score 85+ points in this game in their sleep, which means if the Mocs can break the 60 point barrier then this game should go over the total. The Mocs should be able to reach the mid 60’s just by gunning 3’s for most of the game, and then possibly getting some junk interior scoring late in the game when Calhoun pulls out his starters and the game takes on the feel of a run n’ gun backyard pickup game. There’s at least 10 points of value in playing this over according to my capping methods, so feel confident about the total going over 145.0. I’ll leave you with one last interesting tidbit which hopefully foreshadows a winning play:
These 2 programs have only met one other time… on March 16, 1995 the Huskies and Mocs played for the first and only time in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. UCONN was a #2 seed and beat #15 seeded Chattanooga by a score of 100-71. That’s a lot of points.
Sorry it was a little wordy
hno:Best of luck to all in the first and second rounds! :godown:
