UCLA / California

[Conan]

Simple strategy here. Two factors influence me.

First, Cal just played their "Pac-10 game of the year" and regardless of whether or not they won or lost, they must be feeling somewhat deflated. Laying points at home to a UC rival is to be expected, however I think the number is substantial under the circumstances. The Bears have beaten easy teams but they haven't really been tested beyond last week's "game of the year" against any other decent opponent yet.

Second, this year UCLA is an improved team in all facets of the game. Traditionally, the Bruins are also strong starters. This season, the Bruins continue to exceed expectations. They are underrated and have been a good bet this season because of that fact. How good? It's hard to say, but, looking at both teams stats and quality of opposition, they are much closer to each other than one would expect. Both teams win when they are expected to and both teams have done it with balanced play on both sides of the line. Perhaps UCLA may even have an edge in the rushing department. If they can keep the ball and control time of posession, this game will be a good one.

The Bears may have a bit of revenge going for them having lost at home last season to this team. That's about all I can come up with as far as motivaton goes for the Bears. The Bears are a very good team but I think 1/2 of that is hype for the squares. On the other hand, UCLA has much more to gain here than Cal does.

The last couple of years have been very competitive games between these teams. But what sways me the most is the fact that the Bruins haven't looked this good since DeShaun Foster got kicked off the team a couple years ago which destroyed them when many were considering the Bruins top 10 material. I think UCLA has something to prove and it's been that way for a long time. They may be the hungrier team here. That plus 14 points looks to me like a winner. Laying 14 in the Pac-10 isn't often a good idea. Certainly not between these 2 schools.

Winone, maybe you are right about UCLA's coach. The are definintely playing a lot better than I expected this season. The Bruins look a lot more disciplined and tuned than I've seen them in quite a while. I don't think the Bears will be able to just walk over them.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

good analysis

Conan,

I agree with this post 100%...very well written...Played UCLA +14 earlier today

BTW, heard you are taking over the "Tonight Show" in a couple of years...lol

 

[Conan]

Before I forget, I want to explain why I feel UCLA can run on Cal, maybe even well enough to control the TOP. I'm sure a few might not agree with me on this point. And I agree that the game may hinge on who is the better rushing side.

Like I said, Cal hasn't really been tested very much. They did out gain USC but the punishment they paid in the process when the chips were down is the reason why USC pounded their asses. Long drives usually don't pay off.
Statistically, Cal appears to have a decided edge. But if you look at their record you will find that they racked up 450 rushing yards MORE than NMST and Air force did when they played these opponents who can't run the ball or defend against the rush either. This skews the numbers. Their 1-2 punch, Arrington and Lych have ammassed 800 yds between them against weaker defenses.

On the other hand, UCLA was outrushed 380 yds. (total) by OK ST. and Arizona (who can do one thing right which is run the ball.) Despite this difference in scheduling difficulty, UCLA's 1-2 punch, Drew and White have racked up over a 1000 yds between them against overall tougher opposition.

Take all that for what it's worth but I think UCLA will put Cal's statistically good rushing defense to the test.

Of course the QB advantage goes to Cal, with Rogers (871 yds) averaging 78% completions which is kind fo outrageous if you think about it. I'm not so sure he will pitch that kind of game this week. On the other hand, Drew Olson scores almost a thousand yards with a 60% completion rate. That ain't bad. Seems almost like a wash to me unless you count picks. I'm counting on that crap not to get too much out of control.

 

[muffinman]

"Like I said, Cal hasn't really been tested very much"

WHAT???:think:
They just went toe-toe with the reigning national champions, one of the best teams in the country.

"The Bears may have a bit of revenge going for them having lost at home last season to this team. That's about all I can come up with as far as motivaton goes for the Bears. The Bears are a very good team but I think 1/2 of that is hype for the squares. On the other hand, UCLA has much more to gain here than Cal does."

What???
How can you make statements like this? Cal has everything to play for.
- How about proving, like they did last week, that they can play with the Best in the Nation.
- How about Rogers Heisman campaign? Don't you think it would be nice if he shreads a pretty good UCLA secondary(#20)?
-How about Avenging LY loss?
And how can you say the squares are the reason behind Cal's hype?
-How about their Offense:
ranked 2nd in total offense (6th scoring,9th rushing, 23 passing)
ranked 5th in total defense (13th rushing,13th passing,16th scoring)
This team is as well rounded, and well coached as they come!

 

[AlwaysKeen]

Muffinman,

You make some good points here...but Pac 10 games are more historically close games IMHO than any other conference...14 points is a lot in this game...UCLA is as hot as any team in the country and they are a 14 point dog in this one? Doesn't make too much sense to me...

 

[Conan]

Muff, there's just about nothing you said that I didn't mention in the post. Try reading each sentence to the end. If you think testing Cal this season amounts to one game vs USC, I have to disagree. I'm not suggesting that they are not a good team, I know their coach well for years here in Oregon... but if you think your Bears can rise to the occasion and beat the Bru's by 2 TDs then it's your money. Cal's rankings have to be measured against their opposition and as I explained, overall they have played no one worthy but USC. UCLA has whupped similar opposition the same way the Bears did. You seem to know a bunch about Cal but what do you know about UCLA? You talk about the game as if UCLA doesn't show up and won't even make the bus. THAT IS SQUARE THINKING.

By the way, if I remember the story... Isn't the muffinman the guy who used to sell food concessions at public beheadings?

 

[muffinman]

Conan,
lol Good one

I do not know anymore about Cal than I do UCLA. I am just a numbers cruncher that considers himself a (mediocre) handicapper. I am certainly not the best in the nation, or am I never wrong. I watched that USC/CAL game this weekend and was completely impressed. I have not yet gotten the chance to watch UCLA, but I think that will change Sat.
You have certainly made some good points, and this UCLA team is definitely a good one, but how good? Good enough to stay with USC, Cal? Maybe for a quater or two, but I think Cal pulls away in the end.
Bol, my friend :howdy:

 

[WinOne]

Conan,

Great write up. I definately don't think you can overlook the level of competition that UCLA has played. SDSU, OK St and Zona all have very good defenses. I think UCLA is turning in the right direction with Dorrell. Also note that Cal top receiver is lost for the year with ACL injury so WR corps will be depleted a bit. Everyone has to step up one slot. The #2 becomes the #1, The #3 becomes the #2. And they run a lot of multiple receiver sets. It could hurt them a bit.

WinOne!!

 

[silver7]

I Think Cal Is a Top 10 Tm

But, UCLA is not chopped liver, and laying this many pts (it`s 15 now) is asking a lot in this spot. After playing their hearts out and losing, there HAS to be some letdown. Remember they ARE still teenagers for the most part. Even the Pro`s suffer thru this. L2 yrs games decided by a total of 8 pts. Love this Cal tm but not here.

 

[panther]

conan

as always

thanks and good luck

panther

 

[TheGeneral+]

Hope you are doing well Conan.


I just talked to the hippie techies yesterday. Good people.

 

[Conan]

thx Gen.

Give M & B my regards next time you talk to them.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Will do my friend.

All the best to you.

 

[WCBias]

Conan...how's the weather in Oregon?

Another factor to consider in this game is that Cal CONTINUES to talk **** about losing last week. They seem more focused on losing to USC than preparing for UCLA.

GL and send my love to the Beavers

 

[Journeyman]

UCLA has improved greatly and has beat some very decent teams soundly , Cal scares the hell out of me though...I'm definately leaning to playing UCLA now, thanks for the write up Conan.