UCLA / Arizona St.

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Last week I sorta split on UCLA with 1/2 my action on the Bru's +17 and 1/2 of it at 17.5 so I kinda made out... but I'm disappointed because they played well enough to make it closer than they did. A failed onside kick left the Bears with super good field position with a minute or two left in the game and they modestly tried to kill the clock with a few rushing plays however UCLA has no rushing defense and da Bears end up with a gratuitous TD they didn't even want or need. But the Bruins showed a lot of grit just the same.

This week UCLA faces a team that CANNOT exploit their weak rushing defense. The Sun Devils with their current problems in their backfield will likely run the ball about as well as your average JV team but we don't talk about those things as long as Andrew Walter is bombing secondaries... not very much different from Koetter's old days up in Idaho if you think about it. I guess some things never change. The Sun Devil game came down to a confrontation between HC Koetter who handles his team's offense and HC Pete Carrol who personally deals with the Trojan defense. Kudos to Norm Chow too but Carrol holding Az.St. to a FG was a bit off the scale I must admit.

So it's already been a week but I personally don't think the Sun Devils know where they are yet or what hit them. As I mentioned, the Sun Devils are a team that hasn't much of a rushing game. Injuries, suspensions etc. to their top 2 backs and you have to wonder what they bring to the table this week. The Bru's only 2 losses this season were against VERY formidable rushing teams. They beat everyone else.

This week they find Az.St. hurting bigtime in their backfield. Without a rushing threat to worry about, I wonder how they might exploit what's left... albeit Koetter can coach a pretty good QB, but without balance, I think UCLA may snuff their offense a la Pete Carrol with some success. Don't think for a minute that the USC defense in that game wasn't the hot topic in the Bruins chalk talks all week. And with Az.St. hurting in their backfield even worse than usual, life for the Bruins could be good.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bruins win this one outright, but with that hook on top of a TD, I just can't resist.

PS... thanks to my bud DC.. I really think you are onto something.
 

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Conan we are in agreement here.this was the first play I posted a few days ago.I know this sun devil team well much like you know the oregon schools and I think that UCLA comes in and gives the devils all they can handle.
 

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agree that this is the right side...but after last week, I was sick...won't be betting UCLA for a while...
 

Oh boy!
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Conan, I think this is the correct way to diagnose a game.

-You cover the topics of one team's strengths against another's weaknesses.
-You mention how one team's weakness cannot be exploited by the other team.
-You mention the intangibles like momentum and getting blown out the week before.

Good luck.
 

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pags pags pags... give yourself a break and just chalk up an early bet on a line with less value as a lesson on how to fade the squares. Let them jack up the line and then swoop in for the kill. The Cal Bears are lacking only a church for their followers to congregate in. Other than that, Cal probably costs their fans at least a FG at the betting window just because they are the supreme Cal Bears. UCLA deserved that cover. Anyone who watched the game saw how well they contested the mighty Bears. It could have been a 10 or 13 point win but sometimes the sh*t just hits the fan and even the smartest player loses because it just f*kkin happens and there isn't sh*t anybody can do about it. Would you walk away from a blackjack table just because the dealer beats your 19 with a 20? Winning INCLUDES losing. Any decent player will tell you that. Now suck it in and put some money on the Bruins and fahgetaboutit.

Prophet, I have noticed how many times we have agreed this season. Did you get a brain transplant? :) just kidding. I think the only loss was when the Ducks went ballistic out of nowhere like a psycho hose beast and broke the Cougars face 911 style. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Quantum, you are absolutely right. Find those angles on a game and you will win your share more than the book. In the face of relevant, important game factors such as what you noted, ALL bookmakers are losers in the long run. You can pick your spots the right way, bookmakers can't do anything but take action on the whole card. THIS is the gambler's advantage that everyone understands but very few exploit.
 

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