As UGLY as you wanna be!
The plays your mother warned you about. 69% last year. I don't expect many to agree, but just a few to understand. Best of luck in your endeavors, and may God be with us!
Houston (+14) @ Miami
Miami's the chic Super Bowl pick for the AFC, and I personally have a bit on them myself.
But to make the Texans 2 TD dogs is ,IMO, downright ludicrous. Miami has yet to prove they have ANY semblance of an O-line, and Fiedler, although tough, will never wow anyone with his skills. Sure, Ricky will get his thirty carries for +100 yards, but the Phins lack the head coach and killer instinct to put teams away, as evidenced by the last two games of 2002.
The Texans will be much improved this year and it starts up front. Everyone knows about the 76 sacks Carr took last year. But the line only gave up an average of 3 sacks over the last 5 games, not great numbers, but definitely marked improvement, and they've since upgraded by signing Zach Wiegert and Greg Randall. The leader, Center Steve McKinney, is hurting, but he should be healthy enough to be valuable. Stacey Mack is a huge upgrade over rapper James Allen and Jon Wells because of his ability to get the tough yards.
On defense, Aaron Glenn and Marcus Coleman should be able handle the inconsistent Chambers and the unfamiliar (to Fiedler) Derrius Thompson, one on one, and allow the defense to focus on Ricky. Foreman and Sharper are mad run stoppers in the middle of Capers' 3-4, and safeties Brown and Stevens offer excellent run support.
Houston improved greatly through last season. Of their 12 losses, the first 6 were by over 13 PPG, while their last 6 were by right around 7 PPG.
Miami is tough at home, particularly in September, and I'm sure they'll have no problem winning. But judging from the Dolphins team I've grown accustomed to, and the toughness and stellar arm of Carr with his new toy Andre Johnson, I really think we'll see, at the very least, a back door cover in the Sunshine State.
My pick: Houston +14
Indianapolis (PK) @ Cleveland
Seriously though, when I heard Dr. Whuzzizname on ESPN say the Colts were going to the Super Bowl this year, I threw up in my mouth.
I would take the Browns here for the coaching discrepancy alone. Butch Davis did more with nothing than any coach in the league last year, and with a couple breaks, i.e. the Rudd helmet incident, etc., they probably would have been playing at home in the postseason.
Tony Dungy improved the defense of the Colts last year, but his offensive prowess leaves a lot to be desired. Sure, Harrison's 140+ catches were huge, but larger still were Peyton Manning's 23 INT's.
Cleveland's D is young, particularly at LB, but the line is talented enough to funnel Edge to them.
Holcomb has 4 solid receivers to throw to against a banged up secondary. He's got a solid William Green to attack a linebacking corps devoid of Mike Peterson, team leader in tackles 2 of the last 3 years. Peterson will be replaced by David Thornton, making his first NFL start.
I'm no fan of Dungy's motivational skills, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Browns run away with their home opener.
My pick: Cleveland PK
San Diego (+5.5) @ Kansas City
Offense is the bettor's best friend, and when the average bettor thinks of Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, etc., he begins to salivate. Particularly when you tell him the opposing secondary has FOUR new starters in place.
Don't be fooled.
The last five games of this series have been decided by five or less points, and this one should be no different.
David Boston will turn out to be one of the best free agent pickups, especially with LT running the ball. It will be tough in Arrowhead, but San Diego should control the line of scrimmage with Tomlinson, and take enough attention off of Boston to free him for the occasional big play.
Now about that defense. Marty was handcuffed last year because of the lack of defensive speed, and couldn't afford to be aggressive. Say what you will about Seau and Harrison, but they've both lost a step, and were probably both expendable. As much hoopla as K.C.'s offense generates, they still have no goto receiver, and the young Charger DB's have a lot of confidence and just as much talent. This secondary WILL be better than last year's.
Watch Tim Dwight as well, as he will be returning kickoffs as well this year, and he certainly has the talent to make a game changing play, as he's shown.
This one has the makings of one of those 28-27 type games.
My pick: San Diego (+ 5.5)
Getting late and the games come early. may add more in the A.M.
Space.
The plays your mother warned you about. 69% last year. I don't expect many to agree, but just a few to understand. Best of luck in your endeavors, and may God be with us!
Houston (+14) @ Miami
Miami's the chic Super Bowl pick for the AFC, and I personally have a bit on them myself.
But to make the Texans 2 TD dogs is ,IMO, downright ludicrous. Miami has yet to prove they have ANY semblance of an O-line, and Fiedler, although tough, will never wow anyone with his skills. Sure, Ricky will get his thirty carries for +100 yards, but the Phins lack the head coach and killer instinct to put teams away, as evidenced by the last two games of 2002.
The Texans will be much improved this year and it starts up front. Everyone knows about the 76 sacks Carr took last year. But the line only gave up an average of 3 sacks over the last 5 games, not great numbers, but definitely marked improvement, and they've since upgraded by signing Zach Wiegert and Greg Randall. The leader, Center Steve McKinney, is hurting, but he should be healthy enough to be valuable. Stacey Mack is a huge upgrade over rapper James Allen and Jon Wells because of his ability to get the tough yards.
On defense, Aaron Glenn and Marcus Coleman should be able handle the inconsistent Chambers and the unfamiliar (to Fiedler) Derrius Thompson, one on one, and allow the defense to focus on Ricky. Foreman and Sharper are mad run stoppers in the middle of Capers' 3-4, and safeties Brown and Stevens offer excellent run support.
Houston improved greatly through last season. Of their 12 losses, the first 6 were by over 13 PPG, while their last 6 were by right around 7 PPG.
Miami is tough at home, particularly in September, and I'm sure they'll have no problem winning. But judging from the Dolphins team I've grown accustomed to, and the toughness and stellar arm of Carr with his new toy Andre Johnson, I really think we'll see, at the very least, a back door cover in the Sunshine State.
My pick: Houston +14
Indianapolis (PK) @ Cleveland
Seriously though, when I heard Dr. Whuzzizname on ESPN say the Colts were going to the Super Bowl this year, I threw up in my mouth.
I would take the Browns here for the coaching discrepancy alone. Butch Davis did more with nothing than any coach in the league last year, and with a couple breaks, i.e. the Rudd helmet incident, etc., they probably would have been playing at home in the postseason.
Tony Dungy improved the defense of the Colts last year, but his offensive prowess leaves a lot to be desired. Sure, Harrison's 140+ catches were huge, but larger still were Peyton Manning's 23 INT's.
Cleveland's D is young, particularly at LB, but the line is talented enough to funnel Edge to them.
Holcomb has 4 solid receivers to throw to against a banged up secondary. He's got a solid William Green to attack a linebacking corps devoid of Mike Peterson, team leader in tackles 2 of the last 3 years. Peterson will be replaced by David Thornton, making his first NFL start.
I'm no fan of Dungy's motivational skills, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Browns run away with their home opener.
My pick: Cleveland PK
San Diego (+5.5) @ Kansas City
Offense is the bettor's best friend, and when the average bettor thinks of Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, etc., he begins to salivate. Particularly when you tell him the opposing secondary has FOUR new starters in place.
Don't be fooled.
The last five games of this series have been decided by five or less points, and this one should be no different.
David Boston will turn out to be one of the best free agent pickups, especially with LT running the ball. It will be tough in Arrowhead, but San Diego should control the line of scrimmage with Tomlinson, and take enough attention off of Boston to free him for the occasional big play.
Now about that defense. Marty was handcuffed last year because of the lack of defensive speed, and couldn't afford to be aggressive. Say what you will about Seau and Harrison, but they've both lost a step, and were probably both expendable. As much hoopla as K.C.'s offense generates, they still have no goto receiver, and the young Charger DB's have a lot of confidence and just as much talent. This secondary WILL be better than last year's.
Watch Tim Dwight as well, as he will be returning kickoffs as well this year, and he certainly has the talent to make a game changing play, as he's shown.
This one has the makings of one of those 28-27 type games.
My pick: San Diego (+ 5.5)
Getting late and the games come early. may add more in the A.M.
Space.
