I'm 1-1 in my very large playoff bets so far this year, historically 60% in that category (although admittedly not a big sample size). The Nuggets are a VERY LARGE tonight. They are not the Celtics. They are not the Knicks. They are probably 4 points better than the Bucks right now, facing a team which, without Szczerbiak, is probably 2 points worse than the Pistons. Additionally, I propose that the Nuggets have a 1-1.5 point greater home advantage than the Bucks, while the T-Wolves need home cooking more than the Pistons. All translated, this leaves the Nuggets line for tonight at fair between pk and DENVER a 2 pt. favorite. Only GREAT teams with good depth should be considered as more than road pk-'ems in the playoffs, IMO, and Minn. - esp. without Wally and Troy - are only very good and obviously NOT deep. Nuggets have only lost FOUR games at home this year by 4 or more when rested. They also have a curious history going back years and years. When they beat a team at home as a dog, they usually get the $ next time at home as well if still a dog. Also, as I mentioned in an earlier post, look at the Nuggets when they break a losing streak followed by a home game.
