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sherwood

sherwood

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MIAMI (OHIO) –6 over Akron (2:00 PM)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

This is being billed as a clash between the two top teams in the MAC and while their respective records would agree, we’re not buying it. The Zips are 12-5 and have reeled off five in a row (which means they were just 7-5 three weeks ago), however, four of those five were at home and the only game on the road was in Marshall, who happens to be 3-14 this year. None of their past five wins were that impressive at all and this edition of the Zips does not travel well at all. All five of their losses have been on the road and that includes Drake, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Dayton and at Wright St. Meanwhile, the Redhawks have played the likes of Cincinnati, Xavier and Kent St. and they looked absolutely flawless in their last win at home over Western Michigan. The Redhawks also have lots of options. Danny Horace has four 20-point games, while Chet Mason has two and Nathan Peavy has one. Than there’s sophomore guard Doug Penno, who has used solid long-range shooting and good hustle over Miami's last three games to make a name for himself. With home wins over Purdue, Findlay, Ball State, Liberty, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Ohio and Western Michigan, Miami is 8-0 at home this season and has won nine straight dating back to the 2003-04 campaign. Lastly, the RedHawks are 15th in the nation in three point shooting and from what we’ve seen, although these two schools have similar records, the Zips are imposters and will be exposed here. Play: Miami –6 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).<o:p></o:p>

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Dayton +10½ over GEORGE WASHINGTON (2:00 PM)
We’ve seen it a million times over, whereas a key player goes down and the oddsmakers completely over-compensate for it in the number. They over-compensate because they’re aware that the wagering public uses injuries as a handicapping tool when in fact, injuries are factored into the number. For the second game in succession the Flyers will be without 6’11” center, James Cripe. While Cripe will be missed, it’s not going to deter us from taking back these big points. The Flyers are a team that works hard from start to finish and aside from being 3-1 at home in league play, they’re also 2-0 on the road. George Washington is one of those teams that apply full court pressure and that’s a style that makes laying big lumber very dangerous indeed. It worked well for the Colonials earlier in the year but with all the game films available, opposing coaches and teams have caught up to the Colonials. GW has dropped three of its past four games and that includes losses to Xavier and UMass, both at home. Throw in an 11-point loss at Richmond and than throw in the first place Flyers getting 10½ points and the equation is a rather simple one; too many points to be spotting this feisty pooch. Play: Dayton +10½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
 
winbig

winbig

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good analysys...i like dayton as well

btw cripe is a non-factor and his loss is not calculated into this line at all.

his recent stats (5 game winning streak for Dayton):

11 minutes, 0/1 shooting (0 pts), 1RB, 1A vs Lasalle
16 minutes, 2/7 shooting (6 pts), 2RB vs St.Joseph's
3 minutes, 0's across the board, except for one blocked shot @Duquesne
7 minutes, 0's across the board, except for one rebound vs Richmond
11 minutes, 0 pts, 1RB and 2 blocked shots vs Cornell

all in all, not a factor at all.
 
Stilwell

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Nice write-ups SherwoodWith you all the way on Miami but the Flyers scare me. I agree that Cripe is not a factor, injured or healthy. What concerns me is UD's youth. They will start 2-3 freshmen and I've seen as many as five 1st yr. players on the floor at one time. They are the type of team that can get blown out by pressure, although they do play hard till the buzzer. UD guards Williams and Jones both have experience but are inconsistent. Both need to play solid and control the game. I'll play a 1/2 unit on this one and root for the home team. Thanks and GL

P.S. The Flyers are a team to watch in 2 years. They have an exceptional freshmen class that is getting lots of experience, with 2 excellent recruits coming in next year.
 

bhg

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win big said:
good analysys...i like dayton as well

btw cripe is a non-factor and his loss is not calculated into this line at all.

his recent stats (5 game winning streak for Dayton):

11 minutes, 0/1 shooting (0 pts), 1RB, 1A vs Lasalle
16 minutes, 2/7 shooting (6 pts), 2RB vs St.Joseph's
3 minutes, 0's across the board, except for one blocked shot @Duquesne
7 minutes, 0's across the board, except for one rebound vs Richmond
11 minutes, 0 pts, 1RB and 2 blocked shots vs Cornell

all in all, not a factor at all.

Good post, I found this info as well and made Dayton +11 sit better with me.

Sherwood - keep up the good work - your writeups are probably the best on this site and I always reference them to see if there's a dog or a game I may have missed.
 
Vegasvice

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nice call on miami--thought there might have been hanky panky with line coming down at posttime and miami trying to blow 19 point lead with 7 minutes left in game but they got there.
 

steelrunner

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Great Picks!

Nice call on both games today! I read both of your write-ups and was confident on both Miami and Dayton. Dayton made it close it at the end, but pulled it out. Your write-ups are much appreciated. Keep Rolling!!
 

GameBreaker

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Sweep! Great job!
 
sherwood

sherwood

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Thanks guys, there's such a fine line between winning and losing and luck plays a big role. So many games come down to a missed free throw here and there, a bad call by the ref, a shot at the buzzer that if it falls in you're a winner and if it doesn't you're not.

Both these games today could have gone either way but I feel like I was on the right side regardless of what happened. Miami was up 20 at one point and the Flyers were up 6 in the second half. Could have just as easily lost them both.

Anyway, I'm just glad to cash and hopefully most of you cashed too.

See ya tomorrow!!
 

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