Thanks all. Here is what my group was thinking. From the technical side, Tulsa is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against Tulane. Tulane is also 1-4 in their last 5 openers. From the coaching side, as mentioned, Tulane gets a new D.C. and he is going to try and keep his defense in their basic defenses as much as possible, not a real good idea against spread teams.
The biggest difference is inthe players themselves. Tulsa has to replace starting QB Johnson. Their new QB will get plenty of help from returning WR's Damaris and Trae Johnson, and RB Clay, who is also an excellent receiver. Their defense shold be strong at LB and in the secondary, important because they use a 3-3-5 sceme.
Tulane also has a QB issue, a good RB, and a good WR, providing that they both stay healthy, something that has been a problem for those two. All toll, 8 return on their offense. The defense is where the major problems are going to be. They return 6 starters from a very poor defense. Only Reggie Scott returns to the line, and he WAS expected to anchor that line, but he has been suspended for two games. The secondary has major problems. Safety Lauricella has had injury problems, and his back-up is out. Another key figure, CB/S Sonnier has also been suspended. LB Rhymes missed all of the Spring with numerous hamstring issues, and his replacement is also out for the season.
Because of the defensive problems at Tulane, Tulsa looks like a sure thing. The suspensions really hurt Tulane, especially in the line, where they need al the help they can get. This is the type of game that we like to look for. Not much action, so not much of a chance of a major line move, or the lines moving at all the Vegas casino's all at once. Tulsa looks like a solid play at -13.5. We will probably be adding this game as a play later.
The biggest difference is inthe players themselves. Tulsa has to replace starting QB Johnson. Their new QB will get plenty of help from returning WR's Damaris and Trae Johnson, and RB Clay, who is also an excellent receiver. Their defense shold be strong at LB and in the secondary, important because they use a 3-3-5 sceme.
Tulane also has a QB issue, a good RB, and a good WR, providing that they both stay healthy, something that has been a problem for those two. All toll, 8 return on their offense. The defense is where the major problems are going to be. They return 6 starters from a very poor defense. Only Reggie Scott returns to the line, and he WAS expected to anchor that line, but he has been suspended for two games. The secondary has major problems. Safety Lauricella has had injury problems, and his back-up is out. Another key figure, CB/S Sonnier has also been suspended. LB Rhymes missed all of the Spring with numerous hamstring issues, and his replacement is also out for the season.
Because of the defensive problems at Tulane, Tulsa looks like a sure thing. The suspensions really hurt Tulane, especially in the line, where they need al the help they can get. This is the type of game that we like to look for. Not much action, so not much of a chance of a major line move, or the lines moving at all the Vegas casino's all at once. Tulsa looks like a solid play at -13.5. We will probably be adding this game as a play later.
This is the third year in a row that Tulsa is breaking in a new QB; QB Bower played in every game last year although limited reps. He is a former JUCO who orgininally signed with BYU; he is a dual threat QB and he will be fine as he has been in the system for two years. The Running backs are all playmakers in rushing and recieving and the WRs are one of C-USA's top units and are explosive. The O-line has some holes to fill as they lose three starters from last year but should be serviceable against Tulane's poor def numbers from last year. Tulane has no offensive punch but should improve upon last year's pathetic 17pts/gm. Tulane cannot match Tulsa's firepower and Tulane's defense won't be able to keep this number at or under the 13' pt spread. Punch your ticket.
Best Wishes
Buckeyemac (<)<
Best Wishes
Buckeyemac (<)<
And if Bower doesn't work out, they have G.J. Kinne (Texas transfer) or the true frosh Shavodrick Beaver at QB - both who are talented enough to start at several other programs. The only time they don't cover is when they played an average to above average defense (Arkansas, East Carolina) which Tulane does not have. They can put up points, that's for sure.
The only thing that somewhat worries me about this play are last year's SOS #'s. Tulane tested themselves and was victim of a tough schedule playing LSU and Alabama OOC (in addition to UL-Monroe and Army), while Tulsa didn't play a single bowl team (Central Arkansas, New Mexico, North Texas, Arkansas). SOS doesn't play a huge part in determining winners until the second half of the season though, simply because it tells you who is overvalued (Minnesota) and undervalued (almost everyone in the ACC).
The only thing that somewhat worries me about this play are last year's SOS #'s. Tulane tested themselves and was victim of a tough schedule playing LSU and Alabama OOC (in addition to UL-Monroe and Army), while Tulsa didn't play a single bowl team (Central Arkansas, New Mexico, North Texas, Arkansas). SOS doesn't play a huge part in determining winners until the second half of the season though, simply because it tells you who is overvalued (Minnesota) and undervalued (almost everyone in the ACC).
