TUF 8 Finale picks - December 13th

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Going to be adding stuff here as I handicap the fights. Keep an eye out.
 

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Efrain is +300 and I like him at those odds. The guy is 10-0 with a nice submission wrestling game and his standup hasn't looked horrible. Nover is skilled enough to avoid the submissions and his striking has looked very nice but I haven't seen much of his takedown defense and he's less experienced. Efrain can win a boring lay and pray here or do some ground and pound work. He's a live dog.

Efrain Escudero +300
 

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The Vinny/Bader fight should be an interesting one and I'd probably back whoever was the doggie but since I missed out on Vinny at +170, gotta go Bader now. Bader is 7-0, Vinny is just 2-2. Vinny hates being hit and his heart for the sport has to be questioned a little bit. Vinny's jiu jitsu will make it hard for Bader to lay and pray and this fight could very well stay standing where Bader has a huge power edge and Vinny hates to be hit. Vinny's standup looked pretty sloppy as well. Gotta go with Bader.

Ryan Bader +130
 

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Jason MacDonald and Wilson Gouveia could be good as both fighters are similar but Gouveia has shown better submission skills and more power in his hands so I think the small favorite has a chance to win the fight many different ways while MacDonald has not shown enough power to do anything against Gouveia's weakness which is his chin.

Wilson Gouveia -135
 

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You guys need to play Shane Nelson -110 right now. That price should go up.

From Roop's mouth in an interview before the matchups were announced...

"At this point who gives you the toughest time during training?

I think that Shane Nelson gave me the most trouble in training. He is a very complete fighter."
 

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I also really like Roli Delgado -105 against John Polakowski. Delgado has a much better ground game and Delgado can take a ton of punishment. Polakowski did not do much to impress me in his fights on the show and Delgado is just the higher-level fighter now.
 

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to me,shane nelson is a great value play at -125...

also parlayed elliott marshall and soszynski with wlad klitschko "inside the distance" vs a shot,overweight,cardio challenged and incredibly slow hasim rahman...

also looking at tom lawlor and rolando delgado as small dogs...still considering these....

g.l.
 

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If you ask me I think Vladdy can take him out in the first round if he wants to but sure he wont , he has already been booed out by the crowd for early finishes LOL
 

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lets hope it isn`t the "ibragimov" wladdy that shows up for work today...
 

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I see Nelson at +125
well shit it moved
<table bgcolor="#cccccc" cellspacing="1" frame="void" rules="none" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#d1d1d1"><td nowrap="nowrap">Sat 12/13 undefined</td><td nowrap="nowrap">4017</td><td nowrap="nowrap">SHANE NELSON</td><td nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="editx" name="M1_115" size="4" maxlength="5"> +115 </td><td nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td nowrap="nowrap"> </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d1d1d1"><td nowrap="nowrap">6:30PM (EST) </td><td nowrap="nowrap">4018</td><td nowrap="nowrap">GEORGE ROOP</td><td nowrap="nowrap"> </td><td nowrap="nowrap"><input id="editx" name="M2_115" size="4" maxlength="5"> -145 </td></tr></tbody></table>
 

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Wow, crazy line move. Is Nelson hurt or something? He looked good at weighins and Roop said himself that Nelson gives him more trouble than anyone in the house (including Nover and Ephraim).

Weird.
 

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Strange movement indeed. Almost everyone I've seen is on Nelson and yet Roop keeps getting bet and a late pop? Woner what's really going on...
 

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Wow, crazy line move. Is Nelson hurt or something? He looked good at weighins and Roop said himself that Nelson gives him more trouble than anyone in the house (including Nover and Ephraim).

Weird.

didnt see the interview, but ,maybe he was just talking about his team which included the two of them browning and kaplan.

hard to believe he would give him more trouble than the other two.

nonetheless, i like nelson also. i believe roop fought at 145 prior to the show and he didnt impress me much. orthandox standup could be a little annoying, but i feel like he lacks power and will get one of those long limbs snatched. ive read good things about nelson. cant figure the line move out. was gonna raise up to 2u on my play, but feel like im missing something.

also, do you think kingsbury moved to a fav hjust because of his better showing against bader in the prelim round? thought lawlor seemed more dangerous and i know he is a good wrestler.
 

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it`s off the board at dimes....

i`m not happy about this....wtf is going on?
 

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what about junie browning v dave kaplan junie is the fav???
kaplan sitting at +260 do they know something we dont?? i know junie has been training with extreme couture hmmmm
 

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what about junie browning v dave kaplan junie is the fav???
kaplan sitting at +260 do they know something we dont?? i know junie has been training with extreme couture hmmmm



JUnie is a retard! he gases big time in this fight and gets beat
 

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Adding some Burns +265. Guy is the better-rounded fighter and should have a better gameplan than he showed the first time.
 

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