Tuesday Service Plays 5/15
Larry Ness
15* AL Game of the Week
Cleveland Indians
The Wunderdog
Game: Chicago Cubs at N Y Mets (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: N Y Mets -147
Looks like based on expectations these two pitchers have done what was expected of the other. Carlos Zambrano went on record at the beginning of the season that he would win the Cy Young award. His 3-3, 5.83 ERA is hardly Cy Young like. John Maine has been looking like a Cy Young candidate in the early going. He is 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA, and hitters are below the Mendoza line against him, batting just .188. Zambrano has not fared well against the Mets in his career, even when he was pitching good as he owns a 4.76 lifetime ERA against them. Mets make it two in a row
Stu Feiner
1000 DIME NBA Playoff Best Bet...DETROIT PISTONS
500 DIME NBA Playoff No Brainer...OVER the posted total Golden State-Utah
200 DIME MLB No Brainer...CLEVELAND INDIANS
Brandon Lang
15 Dime
Utah
10 Dime
Brewers
Cleveland
Red Sox
5 Dime
Angels
Mets
Pirates
Bobby Maxwell
400 Unit NBA (Gut Check)
BULLS
100 Unit NBA (Smart Play)
JAZZ
100 Unit NL (Dog of the Day)
GIANTS
Rob House
1,000,000* Cleveland Indians
1,000,000* Detroit Pistons
1,000,000* Utah Jazz
2 Minute Warning
NBA Players Club
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Tom Stryker
Yankees at White Sox
Prediction: Yankees
New York didn't play its best baseball in Seattle and I fully expect the Yankees to crank things up a notch in this series against the White Sox. The Bronx Bombers will welcome veteran hurler Mike Mussina (2-1, 4.76 ERA) to the mound. After suffering a strained left hamstring injury, Mussina returned in rare form in his last two starts, which were both against the Texas Rangers. "Moose" was touched for only three earned runs and seven hits in 11 innings or work. The right-hander's career numbers against Chicago are respectable too. In 34 starts against the Pale Hose, the former Stanford Cardinal has been nicked for 109 earned runs and 235 hits in 212 frames. That breaks down to a respectable 4.63 ERA and a WHIP of 1.33. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 161-47 is equally impressive. The Yanks will have the advantage of facing White Sox rookie southpaw John Danks, who's coming off his first career victory. On May 9, Danks surrendered only one earned run and three hits over 6.2 innings in a 6-3 decision over Minnesota. Overall, Danks (1-4) has been slapped around for 17 earned runs in 35.1 innings. That adds up to a 4.33 ERA and a WHIP of 1.30. Stopping the Twinkies was impressive. However, facing the Pin Stripers for the first time is a huge step for any rookie hurler. Danks is going to struggle in this start. Take New York with listed pitcher Mussina.
Marc Lawrence
Giants at Astros
Prediction: Astros
The Astros will send veteran righty Woody Williams (1-5, 5.10 ERA) to the hill against the Giants tonight. Williams has cashed six of his last eight starts against San Francisco. He also owns a sharp 2.25 ERA at home against the Giants the last two-plus seasons. It ain't broke and we're not fixing it. Stay at home with Williams and the 'Stros tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Cubs at Mets
Prediction: Mets
I'm backing the Mets on Tuesday with John Maine over Carlos Zambrano. The Chicago righty continues to get pounded in the early innings of his starts. I believe nothing will change tonight. Zambrano struggles at Shea and faces a Mets lineup that tops the majors in team batting average (.281) and is second in the league with an .801 OPS. The Mets should be licking their chops facing a hurler with a 5.83 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and allows a .277 road batting average! Meanwhile, the Mets are a perfect 7-0 when John Maine (5-0, 1.79 ERA) toes the rubber in 2007. The right-hander has held his first seven opponents to a .188 batting average. He's made just two appearances in his young career against the Cubs and has yet to allow a run. We'll back the Mets with Maine over Zambrano on Tuesday.
Big Al
At 10:05pm our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres 'over' the total
Mighty ! Quinn
Milwaukee Brewers
Gator
70% Situations
MLB (Tuesday) Play Against MLB (NL) team with an OBP of >=.340 versus a starter whose WHIP =1.250 to 1.300, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the year.
(50-15 last 5 seasons.) (76.9%)
PLAY: Milwaukee -115
Gator's NBA Trend and Angle Report
at Detroit Pistons by 7.0 Chicago Bulls O/U 183.5
Chicago Bulls are 3-12-0 ATS After 2 Home (6 -> 7.5)
at Utah Jazz by 4.5 Golden State Warriors O/U 217.5
Utah Jazz are 64-89-4 ATS After 1 Unders (All Lines)
Golden State Warriors are 53-32-0 O/U All Games (4 -> 5.5)
Vegas Experts
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox now 11-5 at home. They send Wakefield to the mound who shows a 1.40 ERA his last three starts and Boston is 9-5 when he's started vs. the Tigers in his career. Detroit short an arm in the bullpen with Zumaya sidelined and used the pen in losing its last two. BOSTON is 40-10 against the money line in home games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 3 seasons and 29-12 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons. Additional supporting angle says to Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 62%) (30-14 since 1997.)
Play on: Boston
Hondo, Went 0-2 Yesterday
May 15, 2007 -- Ridin' high in April, obliterated in May. That's life for Hondo, who followed up Sunday's oh-fer-2 with another oh-fer-2 last night, losing with the Cubs and Tigers to trim the earnings to 290 tinkers.
Tonight, he'll stick with Detroit and give everyone a reason to stay up late and see how his Angel play works out in Seattle. Ten units apiece.
Michael Cannons Money Train, Monday He Went 4-0
Tuesday's Plays..
20 Dime –
PISTONS ( Buy the ½ point if your line is -7 ½ )
Lay the points with Detroit tonight in Game 5 of their playoff series with Chicago.
The Pistons are going to end it tonight. They are going to do it in convincing fashion. The Bulls may have stayed alive with the big win in Game 4, but all they did was awaken the sleeping giant.
Detroit couldn’t have played worse in Game 4. They shot lousy, played shoddy defense and were destroyed on the glass.
You better believe they’ll be ready to end Chicago’s season tonight.
Just like Cleveland after they lost Game 3 to New Jersey, the loss to the Bulls may have been the best thing to happen to the Pistons.
That’s because they were handed a dose of reality and it will allow them to regain the edge they had in winning the first three games of the series.
They know they are the deeper team and the more battle-tested team.
Detroit has also been dominant when they have a chance to win a series, going 12-2 with the only losses coming Sunday night and in Game 7 of the 2005 NBA finals against the Spurs.
The Pistons are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games and going back to early March, they’re on a 20-8-3 ATS roll. In the last 32 games against the Bulls, the Pistons are 22-10 ATS and the favorite is 21-11 ATS during that stretch.
The Bulls backcourt doesn’t hold a candle to the Pistons’ and that difference is going to be magnified playing in Detroit.
Lay the points with Detroit and remember to buy the ½ point if your line is -7 ½ .
10 Dime –
ORIOLES (With Cabrera and Litsch as listed pitchers)
Take Baltimore for the road win tonight over Toronto.
The Blue Jays have been decimated by injuries this year and are forced to send Jesse Litsch to the mound in his major league debut tonight.
Litsch gets the call from Double-A where he was pitching lights-out, but he’ll find it’s a far different game in the show.
The Blue Jays are just 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Baltimore will send Daniel Cabrera to the hill tonight and he’s 2-1 over his last three games despite a 5.50 ERA. Cabrera should be able to tame the Toronto bats tonight and he should get plenty of run support against Litsch.
Take the Orioles for the road win at this near even price.
5 Dime –
INDIANS (With Ortiz and Byrd as listed pitchers)
Take the Tribe over the slumping Twins tonight at the Jake.
Cleveland has been one of the best teams at home this year with an 11-3 record. They are 6-2 against AL Central foes and face a Twins team that is just 3-7 in its last 10 games.
Paul Byrd gets the nod for the Indians and he’s having a fine season so far with a 2-1 record and 2.84 ERA. The veteran right-hander is 6-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 12 career games against Minnesota.
Twins starter Ramon Ortiz has struggled over his last three starts with an 0-2 record and 6.19 ERA.
Take the Indians and lay the juice as they grab the home win.
DEVIL RAYS (With Shields as listed pitcher)
Lay the juice with Tampa Bay tonight at home over the Rangers.
Normally I wouldn’t see any value laying this kind of number with the Devil Rays, but believe me when I tell you it’s a gift with James Shields starting.
Shields has been nothing short of fantastic this year for Tampa Bay with a 3-0 record and 3.10 ERA in seven starts. He’s been even better over his last three starts with a 2-0 record and 1.48 ERA in 24 1-3 innings. The young right-hander pitched nine scoreless innings in his last start yet failed to receive a decision as the Devil Rays lost 1-0 in 10 innings at Baltimore last Wednesday.
Even more impressive was the fact he threw only 104 pitches in that game.
The Rangers have been terrible on the road this year with a 5-13 record. They will start Robinson Tejada tonight and he’s been knocked around over his last three starts, going 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA in only 15 1-3 innings.
Lay the juice with the Devil Rays as Shields turns in another virtuoso performance and grabs the win.
WHITE SOX (With Danks as listed pitcher)
Take the White Sox as the home dog for the win tonight over the Yankees.
John Danks gets the nod for the Pale Hose and I like him to build off his last start when he beat the Twins in Minnesota last Wednesday. Danks pitched 6 2-3 innings, allowing only three hits and one earned run in Chicago’s 6-3 win.
He’s pitched progressively better in each of his last three starts, allowing four, three and one earned run while pitching into the seventh inning in the last two.
Mike Mussina will start for the Yankees and he’s a .500 pitcher in his career against the White Sox. New York is just 7-10 this year playing away from Yankee Stadium.
Take the White Sox for the win as a home dog tonight.
Bonus Play: REDS (For analysis watch the daily video in the Tuesday Service Talk thread)
Benjamin Lee Eckstein: Devil Rays
BIG AL
Big Al's Baseball Totals Winner (75% This Year).
Al McMordie won again on Monday with the Anaheim Angels. Congratulations to all who joined. Now, Big Al goes for his 3rd straight winning day in Baseball with a Totals play, and Al has CASHED 75 PERCENT of his MLB Totals this season. Line your pockets with some EASY CASH. Get this WINNER right now.
Price: $15.00
Big Al's Baseball Totals Winner (75% This Year).
At 10:05pm our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres 'over' the total. The end of the line could finally be coming for veteran lefthanded starter David Wells, who is now with the Padres but who has been with eight other teams during his 20+ year career. The 44 year old Wells, who has averaged only 1.86 walks per nine innings throughout his career, has issued seven free passes in his last 11 innings, and his ERA over his last 4 starts is an unsightly 7.29. The way things are going, this year could finally be Wells' swan song. Reds righthanded starter Aaron Harang, although much younger than Wells, has an ERA that is about as pretty as the 44 year old lefty, but unlike Wells, he issues far less walks and has been very effective in the win-loss column. This means that Harang has been getting plenty of run support and in fact none of Harang's last 4 starts has gone a total of less than 13 runs, and six of his eight starts have resulted in totals of at least eleven runs. And despite Wells' typically short outings this season, the games in which he's pitched have also gone for generally large numbers of runs. Five of Wells' seven starts have resulted in at least eight total runs. The Reds are scoring a lot of runs lately, and they generally need them because their bullpen has been horrible. Ten of the last 12 Cincinnati games have gone over the total. Take the 'over'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
Jim Feist
Inner Circle Winners!
(511) GST Warriors vs (512) UTH Jazz
Game Starts at May 15 2007 19:35 EST
Take over
Inner Circle
(915) STL Cardinals vs (916) LA Dodgers
Game Starts at May 15 2007 19:10 EST
Take (916) LA Dodgers
Inner Circle
Ben Burns
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
May 15 2007 10:05PM
Prediction: under
Reason: These pitchers faced each other last summer and the final score was 2-0. This figures to be another low-scoring affair. Hernandez has a miniscule 1.56 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in three starts this season. Two of those three games stayed below the total. Hernandez also has a 2.64 ERA and 0.815 WHIP in four starts vs. the Angels. The "Under" was 3-0-1 in those four games. While Hernandez, who just came off the disabled list, will be on a limited pitch count (probably 75-85 pitches) he should be solid while in the game. It's also worth noting that the Mariners' bullpen has an excellent 2.74 ERA and 1.050 WHIP at home this season. Escobar has seen five of his six starts stay below the total. He's got a 2.21 ERA for the season and an awesome 1.14 (0.845 WHIP) his last three starts. Escobar has also seen three straight starts vs. the Mariners dip below the total. Look for another pitcher's duel and consider a play on the UNDER
DAVE COKIN
Carlos Zambrano is pitching better ball than he was at the start of the season, but the wins aren't coming with any regularity for the sometimes enigmatic Cubs righty. Meanwhile, John Maine's dream season continue for the Mets. His stuff is graded at no better than #3 starter material, but Maine is on a phenomenal roll and there's no way I want to fade him right now.
I'll go with the flow and back the Mets
POA
MLB
Tue May 15 7:05 pm
ATLANTA -210 **
WASHINGTON +190
1* rating on ATLANTA
BOTH HUDSON/WILLIAMS
Tue May 15 7:05 pm
FLORIDA +105 **
PITTSBURGH -115
1* rating on FLORIDA
BOTH MITRE/MAHOLM
Tue May 15 7:05 pm
DETROIT +120 **
BOSTON -130
1* rating on DETROIT
BOTH VERLANDER/WAKEFIELD
Tue May 15 7:10 pm
CHI CUBS
NY METS
8.5o-115 **
3* rating on UNDER
BOTH ZAMBRANO/MAINE
Tue May 15 7:10 pm
CHI CUBS +135 **
NY METS -145
3* rating on CHI CUBS
BOTH ZAMBRANO/MAINE
Tue May 15 8:35 pm
ARIZONA -115 **
COLORADO +105
5* rating on ARIZONA
BOTH JOHNSON/HIRSH
Ethan Law:
ARI: LHP Randy Johnson (0-2, 6.00 ERA)
vs.
Colorado Rockies COL: RHP Jason Hirsh (2-3, 4.10 ERA)
The Diamondbacks open a three-game series with the Rockies on Tuesday at Coors Field. Randy Johnson will get the start for the D-backs. The Big Unit did not accompany the team to Houston on the first leg of its road trip because manager Bob Melvin said he did not want to risk Johnson getting a stiff back on the two-plus hour flight. In his last outing against Philadelphia, Johnson was dominant at the beginning as he struck out the first six batters he faced. Johnson had a shutout through six innings and left with the bases loaded in the seventh. But reliever Brandon Medders proceeded to give up a grand slam to Ryan Howard on his first pitch. Hopefully that will not happen to us tonight, but considering the fashion I have been losing games as of late, I’ll knock on wood know! Johnson should be in a good position to pick up his first win of the season tonight as he has had some success against the Rockies posting a fantastic 14-7 mark with a 2.35 ERA in 23 career starts. He also holds an equally impressive 3.86 ERA in 10 starts at Coors Field, remember when 14 runs would be scored per game? The Rockies should really struggle against Johnson as they are just 3-7 against left-handers this season (-$470 with 4.3 runs per game) In contrast, Arizona has a winning record against right-handers 17-12 overall (+$385) and are profitable 4-3 +$105 in night/away games this season. That’s not very good news for Rockies right-hander Jason Hirsh who has struggled lately, going 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA in his last three starts. In his last outing, at St. Louis, he walked six batters and left after four innings even though the score was tied. Look for the future hall-of-famer to get his first win this season.
Verdict: Arizona 6. Colorado 3
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARIZONA -$110
ATL: RHP Tim Hudson (4-1, 1.83 ERA)
vs.
WAS: RHP Jerome Williams (0-4, 6.11 ERA)
After last nights very surprising result, its extremely difficult to imagine Washington taking another game in this series. However, I’m not about to lay -$230 on this Atlanta team so our only option is the run line if we chose to play. That would mean, of course that we would need the Atlanta bats to come alive (they only scored 3 runs their last 2 games), and with Chipper scheduled to be back in the lineup I think the Braves should back and really put a hurting on the Nationals tonight. Quit honestly, this is one of the best handicapping situations I have seen all season. Atlanta gets to face Jerome Williams who is coming off the disabled list, after making a rehab start last Thursday. He has the unfortunate task of facing an Atlanta team that is stellar 15-5 (+$755) against right-handers in all situations, and an even more impressive 5-0 (+$500) in road/nights games averaging a whopping 7.0 runs per game before last nights debacle. In contrast, the National have to face on of the best pitchers in baseball in Tim Hudson, who has given Atlanta a quality start every time out in 2007. He is 2-1 with a unbelievable 1.30 ERA lifetime against Washington, with seven shutout innings in his only start against them this year That’s extremely bad news for a Nationals team that is a horrible 7-17 (-$425) against right-handers in all spots averaging just 3.1 runs per game. Their home/night record against right-handers is equally unimpressive at just 2-4 -$145. How can we not back those numbers? Since the vig is high, are only option is the run-line.
Verdict: Atlanta 8, Washington 2
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ATLANTA -1.5 -$105
Ethan Law Has One More Game For Tonight. It's A Total. He Has Over 9 Runs In The Texas/tbay Game. His Final Score Is Tbay 7 Texas 6.
John Ryan
Game: Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
May 15 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia - Philly now just 2 games under 500 after a horrid start and looking better and better with each passing game. Philly batting near 300 in home games and batting 284 and scoring 5.6 RPG against RH starters. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-13 and has made 23 units since 1997. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. EATON is 11-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record). Eaton has not pitched well to date, but he is coming off a 7 inning 3 ER, 7 hit, 1 BB, 2 K outing at Arizona. Combined with the favorable angle I strongly believe he will pitch well again tonight.
Game: Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
May 15 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia - Philly now just 2 games under 500 after a horrid start and looking better and better with each passing game. Philly batting near 300 in home games and batting 284 and scoring 5.6 RPG against RH starters. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-13 and has made 23 units since 1997. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. EATON is 11-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record). Eaton has not pitched well to date, but he is coming off a 7 inning 3 ER, 7 hit, 1 BB, 2 K outing at Arizona. Combined with the favorable angle I strongly believe he will pitch well again tonight.[/quote]
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on the Cardinals - Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone that has gone 32-17 and has made 36.8 units since 1997. Play on NL road teams that are bad offensive teams scoring <=4.1 runs/game, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season and is now facing a good starting pitcher sporting an ERA<= 3.70. Here is a second system that has gone 29-15 and has made 29.7 units since 1997. Play on NL road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher that are poor NL hitting teams batting <=.250) against a team with a good bullpen sporting an ERA <= 3.75), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season. Here is the third system that has gone 27-14 and has made 23.5 units since 2001. Play on any team that is a poor NL hitting team batting <=.250) against a team with a very good bullpen sporting an ERA <= 3.33, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season. LA DODGERS are 3-10 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Chicago Cubs – We successfully played the OVER last night in Game 1 of this series and now we have a road dog 3* grading. Cubs are hitting well – nearly as well as the Mets and are a vastly under rated team right now. They have batted 276 with 124 extra base hits this season and are batting 285 and scoring 5.1 RPG against RH starters. Their bullpen has been solid up to the past week, but that week long slump will end and end soon. Normally strong bullpens endure about a week's worth of slumps every once in a while in MLB. Offsetting this bullpen performance is the simple fact that the Mets bullpen is mired in a slump of their own sporting a 5.40 ERA over the past 7 games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 74-54 and has made 36.7 units since 2001. Play against any team with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts, with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. Mets starter John Maine may have impressive flash stats, but he is wild allowing 24 BB in 45.3 innings of work and this will work against him with the Cubs patient batters. CHICAGO CUBS are 28-17 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 3 seasons. ZAMBRANO is 8-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Washington - The AiS has identified Washington as a 3* LIVE MAJOR DOG in all four of their 4 game winning streak! We now have the 5 th straight 3* LIVE MAJOR DOG play on Washington tonight. Washington still not hitting the ball at a high level, but their bullpen has really come together during this winning streak. They have attained a 3.48 ERA and have left 48 runners on base spanning 229 AB over their past 7 games. Atlanta not hitting well at all batting 251 and scoring just 4.1 RPG over their past 7 games. Surprisingly, the bullpen has failed Atlanta too. They have posted an ERA of 4.99 and a WHIP of 1.524 over their past 7 games and a what really sticks out is a season WHIP of 1.557. They have issued 71 free passes in just 115 innings of work. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 103-97 and has made 90.7 units since 1997. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. Here is the second system that has gone 55-46 and has made 63.3 units since 1997. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest. HUDSON is 7-14 (- 14.0 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) WASHINGTON is 24-15 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. WASHINGTON is 10-3 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in home games with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons.
Kelso NBA Tuesday
Kelso
5 units Detroit -7 v. Pistons
5 units Golden St. +4.5 @ Jazz
0-2 yesterday and -13 units
33-37-2 and +7 units totals for playoffs
Randall H
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Florida +1.02 over PITTSBURGH
Marlins are in a bit of a funk but we find them in a pretty strong position to win tonight. Sergio Mitre gets no recognition but this is one of the best young pitchers in the game and he has the numbers to back it. He comes in with an ERA of 2.13 and is coming off a complete game shutout over the Dodgers. In two May starts the opposition is hitting .146 off him. In three of his four starts on the year, Mitre has allowed one earned run or less. By contrast, the Pirates Paul Maholm comes in with an ERA of 5.40 and the opposition is hitting .301 off him in seven starts. Only two of his seven starts have been of the quality variety and those came against the Cardinals and Astros, two squads that have made way more pitchers look good than bad. The Marlins are a very decent hitting ball club and it says here they got off the mattress in this one. Play: Florida +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.09 over HOUSTON
When Matt Morris pitches the Giants usually win, as the team is 5-3 when he starts. When Woody Williams and his 1-5 record starts for the Astros they usually lose. Williams is just not that efficient anymore and as a favorite the prudent thing to do is go against him. Williams has only pitched twice at home this year and not only did he lose them both but he was hit very hard. Ask the San Francisco Giants which park is their favorite and they’ll likely tell you minute maid. You see, San Fran has won 21 of its past 26 trips here and there’s nothing suggesting that’ll change. The Astros are simply a horrible team to backing as a favorite because they don’t score nearly enough and they rarely come up with a clutch base hit. The Astros are the greatest bunch of hitters in the league when they’re down 7-1 with two outs in an inning. Play: San Francisco +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +1.07 over SAN DIEGO
As the season progresses David Wells is getting worse with each outing. Not that he was pitching any better early in the year but he did manage to pick a win. In fact, Wells’ ERA in May is 6.55 and in 11 innings he’s walked seven, struck out just four, surrendered 15 hits and allowed eight runs. In other words he’s not fooling anyone and this 44-year-old is pretty much at the end of his rope, as the league is hitting a hefty (no pun intended) .344 off him. Yeah, this ballpark can make anyone look good but if it’s playing to the pitchers favor, which it usually does, then Aaron Harang should benefit much more then Wells. The bottom line here is that a take-back against David Wells comes highly recommended because this guy may not be a favorite ever again. Play: Cincinnati +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Major League Baseball picks for::
W L P +/-
Yesterday 0 0 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 38 48 0 -8.97 Units
Season To Date (Since April 2007) 53 77 0 -27.93 Units
Karl Garrett
40 DIMER DETROIT PISTONS
20 DIMER GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
10 DIMER SAN FRANCISCO WITH MORRIS
10 DIMER ANGELS WITH ESCOBAR
3u NHL Play
Randall H
ANAHEIM -½ +1.08 over Detroit
Does it get better than this? We don’t think so, as the Ducks return home and they can put their knees on the throat of the Red Wings by taking both games at home. Thus far, from what we’ve seen, how’s that not going to happen? The Red Wings look slower and they look like a team that’s wearing down and that’s because they are. Anaheim should be up 2-0 because they’ve outplayed the Wings by a wide margin but they’re happy to be coming home tied 1-1. Now the funs starts, as the Wings and that skinny, flopping runt in net will be exposed. Wings have some damn good players but this invader is simply overmatched and we expect the Ducks power-play to come to life and we’re calling for an easy 5-1 final. Play: Anaheim -½ +1.08 (Risking 3 units).
National Hockey League picks for::
W L P +/-
Yesterday 0 0 0 0.00 Units
Last 30 Days 11 17 0 -8.61 Units
Season To Date (Since October 2006) 154 200 21 +6.29 Units
Stu Finer
1000 DIME NBA Playoff Best Bet
DETROIT PISTONS
500 DIME NBA Playoff No Brainer
OVER total Golden State-Utah
200 DIME MLB No Brainer
CLEVELAND INDIANS
MTI
4* KC Royals
LT Lock
Seattle
streak is 3-0
Ethan Law... Added plays...
Golden State Warriors vs. Utah Jazz
Utah leads the series 3-1 and can clinch it Tuesday at home, where the Jazz are 5-0 in the playoffs. Golden State, meanwhile, will be playing just to extend the series to Game 6 back in Oakland and aren't likely to be losing their cool again with the season on the line. After watching all of these games, it appears as though Utah has figured out up-tempo Warriors, so don’t be surprised if they cannot take advantage of their own quickness and depth. Sometimes handicapping will only get you so far, in this business and like any other business it’s a good idea to keep your ear to the ground and you just might find a nugget worth betting on. Case in point, Utah’s head coach comments in a press conference after Utah’s game #4 road win: "Don's team has done a great job of taking us out of some of the stuff that we do, but we still have to try and stick to it even if the 24-second clock runs out," "That doesn't phase me if it runs out. I'd rather have a turnover that way than the way we started off the third quarter and just handed them the ball." Thanks Mr. Head coach…under it is.
Verdict: Golden State 96, Utah 102
PLAY 1* UNIT ON GOLDEN STATE/UTAH UNDER 217
Texas Rangers TEX: RHP Brandon McCarthy (3-4, 6.89 ERA)
vs.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays TB: RHP James Shields (3-0, 3.10 ERA)
Tampa Bay moved its series against Texas to the Disney Wide World of Sports Complex to try and build a stronger fan base in Central Florida. The Disney Complex becomes the 246th stadium to host a Major League game. Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon thinks playing a home game on the road will have a weird feel, but he is excited to see what kind of reaction the Rays get from the fans. It's seating capacity is being temporarily expanded from 9,000 to 13,000, but it still will be the smallest venue hosting big-league baseball since 1996. As stated above Tampa’s goal here is to try to extend their fan base, so this means that the new fans are not going to want to see a rather boring pitching match-up tonight, they want excitement and that’s exactly what they will get in this patching match-up. Texas will send right-hander Brandon McCarthy to the mound who in four career games against Tampa Bay is 1-2 with a whopping 7.71 ERA. American League opponents are batting 300 against the Rangers' starter and he is coming off his highest pitch-count game of the season 104 at Yankee Stadium (where he could go only 5 1/3 innings). Some reports say his arm feels tired, which might enable the Rays to jump out early with some quick scores. Meanwhile, Tampa’s starter James Shields does have has the lowest WHIP (walks + hits vs. innings pitched) in the AL at just 0.92, but the Rangers got eight hits in six innings against him last year, have already seen him this season and hit three home runs against him on April 11. Texas has a Team Batting Average of only .235 against right-handed pitchers, but they have hit an AL leading 41 home runs (out of 48 total HRs) against right-handers. Historically, Shileds has also underperformed against Tampa as his rather high 4.85 ERA in two career starts indicates. Oh by the way, I forgot to mention that the Devil Rays are #2 in the AL in home runs with 44. This game screams OVER.
Verdict: Texas 6, Tampa Bay 7
PLAY 1* UNIT ON RANGERS/DEVILRAYS OVER 9 +$105
St. Louis Cardinals STL: RHP Adam Wainwright (3-2, 5.01 ERA)
vs.
Los Angeles Dodgers LAD: RHP Derek Lowe (3-4, 3.61 ERA)
The Dodgers look to rebound after getting beaten in the opening game of a three-game series versus the Cardinals. The Dodgers lost to the Cardinals last night, after dropping seven in a row in 2006, so they are more than overdue for a victory. Tonight looks like an ideal setting, with a red-hot Derek Lowe on the mound for LA. Lowe will make his ninth start of the season and his third at Dodger Stadium, where he is 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA this season. The right-hander checks in with a 1.17 ERA in his two most recent starts, and can easily dispatch a soft hitting St. Louis club that despite last night's victory is only averaging 2.8 runs per game against right-handers in night games. Meanwhile, Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright has been inconsistent at best (5.01 ERA in seven starts). Wainwright put together the second leg of back-to-back wins for the first time this season on Wednesday, pitching six innings of two-run ball against the Rockies. Wainwright stayed out of trouble in the first inning, which has been a key for the tall right-hander. He didn't walk a batter and got ahead of hitters all day. It appears as if Wainwright is settling into being a starter, but he will certainly have a tougher task this time around in the Dodgers. The medium range price on the home favorite seems reasonable, but I’m not a reasonable person so I’m going run line.
Verdict: St. Louis 2 Los Angeles 6
OPINION SELECTION ON THE DODGERS -1.5 +$145
Kansas City Royals KC: RHP Brian Bannister (0-2, 4.60 ERA)
vs.
Oakland Athletics OAK: LHP Joe Kennedy (1-2, 2.83 ERA)
Just because left-hander Joe Kennedy won in a rout when he faced the Royals in Kansas City in his last start doesn't mean he carries any extra confidence into Tuesday night's game against them. The A's have won each of the previous seven season series with the Royals, and beat them two of three last week in Kansas City. Oakland has won 49 of the past 66 (74.4%) games played against the Royals, so after losing last night, the numbers support Oakland to take the remaining 3 games of this series. Tonight should be little trouble, as the Royals are winless against left-handers (0-9, -$900) this season. Even worse, (if I can actually say that?) is that they are 0-5 -$500 against left-handers in night/away games averaging paltry 3.8 runs per game. The Royals will counter with right-hander Brian Bannister who will fill in for starter Luke Hudson, who was put back on the disabled list with right shoulder problems. Bannister, who started the season in Triple-A Omaha, has three starts for the Royals this year because of injuries to Hudson and Scott Elarton. Bannister's last appearance was against Detroit on May 4, when he lasted 4 2/3 innings and gave up four runs, on eight hits. On the season, Bannister has given up 12 runs, and 17 hits in 15 2/3 innings. This should be good news for the Oakland offense which has been non existent (other then their huge performance last week) as outfielder Milton Bradley loves facing the Kansas City Royals, batting .340 against them with five homers and 15 RBIs. Meanwhile catcher Jason Kendall's .180 BA this year to date has three homers against the Royals which is the most against any AL team.
Verdict: Kansas City 2, Oakland 7
OPINION SELECTION ON OAKLAND -1.5 +$100
Larry Ness' 15* AL Game of the Week (18-7-1 last 8 days in all sports / 31-8 with 15* GOW plays TY!)
My 15* play is on the Cle Indians at 7:05 ET. Ramon Ortiz began the year by winning his first three starts for the Twins, posting an ERA of 2.05. That was quite a surprise, as he was playing for his fourth team in four years. He was a solid pitcher for the Angels from 2001-03 winning 44 games but from 2004-06, pitching for the Angels, Reds and Nats, had gone 25-35 with a 5.20 ERA. As expected (?), Ortiz has "come back to earth" rather quickly, going 0-3 with a 5.48 ERA in his last four starts for the Twins. Minnesota hasn't played since Sunday night's 16-4 win over the Tigers but that win ended a four-game slide and the Twins will enter this game just 3-8 in their last 11. The Indians limped home having lost four of their final five games of their 10-game road trip (went 4-6) but Cleveland opens a three-game series home series with the Twins at Jacobs Field, where it owns the best home winning percentage in the majors The Indians, who are 11-3 at home, are also 10-1 (plus-$895) at home when facing a righty like Ortiz! Paul Byrd starts for the Indians and while he's just 2-1 in five starts this season (team is only 2-3), he's pitched very well, with a 2.84 ERA. The Indians play nine of their next 13 against the AL Central. Cleveland is 6-2 against its own division, winning two series against the Chicago White Sox and sweeping a two-game set in Minnesota in late April. I expect the Indians to continue their winning ways here. AL Game of the Week 15* Cle Indians.
ROCKETMAN SPORTS
NBA
3* Golden State
