Tuesday Service Play Thread 08/04/2020

[BuzzKill]

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[ryangenero]

Football jesus 200 picks he sent me in 2020 148-52-1

TUE aug 4 NBA PORTLAND +Pts

 

[ConleyPicks]

Football jesus 200 picks he sent me in 2020 148-52-1

TUE aug 4 NBA PORTLAND +Pts

Have seen his picks and he does well in NFL

 

[ConleyPicks]

NBA public betting, line movement, sharp money for August 4
Patrick Everson

Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers are trying to play their way into the Western Conference playoffs. The Blazers face a tough test Tuesday night as 5-point underdogs against the Rockets.

NBA betting odds have hit the board and are seeing early action for Tuesday’s games. Among the highlights at the NBA Bubble in Orlando is the final game of the day, between the Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers.

PointsBet USA provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

The Trail Blazers are on the outside looking in for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot. But behind Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, 10th-place Portland certainly has the firepower to overcome its 2.5-game deficit to eighth-place Memphis.

Doing so against Houston, though, will be a chore. PointsBet USA opened the Rockets -5 Monday evening for a 9 p.m. ET clash. James Harden and Co. are coming off a 120-116 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, who at 54-13 have the NBA’s best record.

In another notable Tuesday tilt, PointsBet USA opened the Celtics -3 against the Heat and quickly moved to -3.5 for a 6:30 p.m. ET start.

NBA sharp money

"We opened at Celtics -3, but saw some sharp action betting against Miami on a back-to-back," PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said, alluding to the Heat's 107-103 loss to the Raptors on Monday.

NBA public betting

There was no Monday night movement in the Rockets-Heats game, but there was a little activity at PointsBet USA.

"This one is holiding steady from the opener at Houston -5," Eichner said. "Slightly more action coming in on Portland +5, but no sharp play."

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=307&p=13203835&viewfull=1#post13203835

 

[Jk1989]

Anyone have Buster Sports %5 NBA? TiA

 

[ryangenero]

Have seen his picks and he does well in NFL

he likes SAC KINGS + pts early as well

 

[bmd1803]

Stephen Oh

SACRAMENTO +6
DALLAS @ SACRAMENTO | 8/04 | 2:30 PM EDT

Neither team has tasted success since the restart as both have lost twice. The Mavericks have played tight contests, falling to Houston in overtime before dropping a two-point decision to Phoenix. This bodes well for the Kings, who lost both of their contests by at least nine points. My model says Sacramento covers the spread in almost 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting good value. Take the Kings and the points.


FLORIDA +1.5
FLORIDA @ N.Y. ISLANDERS | 8/04 | 12:00 PM EDT

The Panthers finished the shortened regular season only two points behind the Islanders, and the result in the series opener proved these teams aren't far apart. Both teams registered 28 shots and played solid defense, with New York holding on for a 2-1 victory. Florida figures to continue playing a tight game on Tuesday. My model says the Panthers cover in more than 80 percent of the simulations, so you're getting tremendous value with them.

 

[bmd1803]

SDQL

OVER 9
L.A. ANGELS @ SEATTLE | 8/04 | 10:10 PM EDT

Seattle pitchers combined to walk 11 Monday in their 11-1 loss to Oakland. In the Angels’ last game, they drew 11 walks. This points to the Over here, as the Angels are 8-0 OU (+3.00 rpg) as a favorite off a home game in which they drew five-plus walks, and the Mariners are 15-0 OU as a dog after they allowed five walks and it is before their 140th game of the season. Seattle beat the Angels and Andrew Heaney by a score of 10-7 on July 29. That's relevant because the Mariners are 8-0 OU in the first game of a series with no rest when their opponents’ starting pitcher has same-season-revenge and it is before their 90th game of the season. Seattle has zoomed over the total by an average of 7.2 rpg in this spot. We are on the Over at -115.

UNDER 8
CHI. WHITE SOX @ MILWAUKEE | 8/04 | 8:10 PM EDT

Freddy Peralta gave up four runs in three-plus innings of work in his last start. This, however, points to the Under as the Brewers are 0-7 OU (-3.57 rpg) at home when their starter went less than four innings in his last start. Also, Milwaukee is 0-8 OU (-2.81 ppg) as a favorite when it are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is before their 90th game of the season. Chicago battled with the Brewers before winning 6-4 Monday. This points to the Under, as the White Sox are 0-7 OU (-4.29 ppg) as a road dog after a game in which they scored first, trailed and won. Bet Under at -105.

OAKLAND -153
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 8/04 | 9:10 PM EDT

The Rangers are off a 9-5 win over the Giants on Sunday in which they went up 3-0 early and never looked back. Texas, however, is 0-8 SU as a dog after it won and never trailed and 0-10 SU in the first game of a series with rest as a dog after they had multiple multiple-run innings. The Athletics romped 11-1 Monday, and that is a good sign as they are 8-0 SU as a +140-plus favorite off a road game in which they had multiple multiple-run innings. Oakland is also 8-0 in the first game of a home series with no rest after a game as a road favorite in which it had 12+ hits. We make the A's the play.

CHI. CUBS -190
KANSAS CITY @ CHI. CUBS | 8/04 | 8:15 PM EDT

Chicago is 18-0 as a favorite of more than -180 in the second game of a home series when they hit at least one home run in the opener. The Cubbies only had five hits while striking out six times in their 2-0 win in the opener Monday. This also points to the Cubs as the play, because the Royals are 0-9 in the second game of a road series when they held their opponent to six or fewer hits while striking them out at least four times. We are on the Cubs.

CLEVELAND -145
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | 8/04 | 6:10 PM EDT

The Reds came back and stole one Monday, winning 3-2 with a total of only four hits. Cincinnati has given these wins right back, as it is 0-9 SU as a dog off a come-from-behind win as a favorite. That loss Monday dropped Cleveland to one game below 500 and the Tribe have been spectacular in this spot, going a character-revealing 13-0 their last 13 when their wins total one fewer than their losses. We are backing the Tribe.

ATLANTA -172
TORONTO @ ATLANTA | 8/04 | 7:10 PM EDT

Max Fried has a 2.31 ERA, and the Jays have not done well against low-ERA starters, going 0-14 SU on the road when their opponent's starter has an ERA of less than 2.50, losing by an average of 3.3 runs. The Braves were stymied by Jacob DeGrom on Monday, but they have recovered well in this spot, going 13-0 SU in the first game of a series with no rest as a +140-plus favorite off a game as a dog in which they had more strikeouts than hits. Atlanta only scored two runs in Fried’s last start and we look for better support here. The Braves are 12-0 SU at home off a home game when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start, with each of the last seven wins by multiple runs. Atlanta should romp.

DALLAS -6
DALLAS @ SACRAMENTO | 8/04 | 2:30 PM EDT

The Mavericks battled and battled against the Suns on Sunday but ended up losing 117-115. This is a Play-On indicator, as Dallas is a league-best 70-34-2 ATS following a road loss in a game that was tied five-plus times. The Kings’ defense has been terrible. Look for Dallas to put up a big number here.

 

[bmd1803]

Larry Hartstein

L.A. ANGELS -195
L.A. ANGELS @ SEATTLE | 8/04 | 10:10 PM EDT
The Angels have won four of their last five games in Seattle, and I like them to extend that run Tuesday night behind lefty Andrew Heaney. He's fanned 12 batters while walking 1 in 9.2 innings. Look for the Mariners' struggles versus lefties to continue.

UNDER 242.5
HOUSTON @ PORTLAND | 8/04 | 9:00 PM EDT

Both teams are explosive, but the Trail Blazers will try to keep the pace slower with Jusuf Nurkic back. This total is falling and I agree with the move. Go Under.

 

[bmd1803]

Tim Doyle

SACRAMENTO +6
DALLAS @ SACRAMENTO | 8/04 | 2:30 PM EDT

This is really about the Mavericks. They are in a bad place. They squandered a seven-point lead against Houston with less than one minute remaining and followed that with a lackluster effort versus Phoenix. Dallas still is one star away from having a “Big 3.” There's no way I’m laying points in this game.

PHOENIX +9
PHOENIX @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 8/04 | 4:00 PM EDT

The Suns are playing with confidence and swag after opening up 2-0 in the bubble. The Clippers still have something for which to play, as far as seeding the Western Conference. Do you think they really care about where they are seeded? I hope not today. Too many points not to take Phoenix.

HOUSTON -4.5
HOUSTON @ PORTLAND | 8/04 | 9:00 PM EDT

If you follow me, you know I have faded Memphis and rolled with Houston. The Rockets are 2-0 in the bubble so far, and their style of play only will be enhanced against a team that wants to play a similar way. James Harden is the most unstoppable offensive player in the NBA, and no one on the Trail Blazers can stick him. Stay hot with the Rockets.

BOSTON -165
BOSTON @ MIAMI | 8/04 | 6:30 PM EDT

I believe the Heat are one of the most balanced teams in the NBA. They played a hard-fought game against Toronto on Monday and have a quick turnaround. The Celtics are rested, and loaded from an offensive standpoint. If Jayson Tatum shows up and balls, Boston will roll.

 

[bmd1803]

Micah Roberts

CLEVELAND -157
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | 8/04 | 6:10 PM EDT

I’m going to go a different way from my normal trend betting with the Indians, who have lost four straight against a Reds team that has won three in a row. Normally, it’s the perfect trend play on Cincinnati. But Cleveland's Shane Bieber is a different story as he comes off two 2-0 wins in which he recorded a total of 27 strikeouts. He's riding a nice wave and I'm jumping on board. Take the Indians to win.

 

[bmd1803]

Mike Barner

INDIANA +1.5
ORLANDO @ INDIANA | 8/04 | 6:00 PM EDT

This is a matchup between teams who are undefeated in the bubble. They are also both missing key big men since the Pacers will be without Domantas Sabonis (foot) and the Magic recently lost Jonathan Isaac (knee). On the bright side for the Pacers, Victor Oladipo is expected to play after sitting out Monday for rest. Malcolm Brogdon is also back after returning from a neck injury Monday. The loss of Isaac is huge for the Magic, who don’t have a lot of offensive weapons, as it is. I think the Pacers can win this outright, so I’ll take the points.

 

[bmd1803]

Rocky Atkinson

WNBA BEST BET

5% Seattle Storm -10.5

The Connecticut Sun take on the Seattle Storm on Tuesday night in WNBA action. Connecticut is 0-4 SU this year while Seattle comes in with a 3-1 SU overall record on the season. Seattle is 18-4 SU and 16-5 ATS last 3 years when playing on 2 days rest. Seattle is 35-12 SU and 31-14 ATS last 3 years after allowing 75 points or more in their previous game. Connecticut is 2-6-1 ATS last 9 games when playing on 2 days rest. Seattle is 7-1 ATS last 8 games when playing against a team with a losing record. Seattle is 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a favorite. We'll play Seattle for 5 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

 

[bmd1803]

Rob Veno

PLATINUM NBA TOTAL BEST BET

4% Celtics-Heat over 221

Find a few significant advantages that indicate the offenses should be the best units on the floor in this matchup. Each of these offenses has the athleticism to generate points in the open court, get to the rim in the half court, score from beyond the three point arc and draw fouls that turn into free throw points. For Miami there’s a sizeable quickness edge for C Bam Adebayo over his Celtics counterparts Daniel Theiss & Enes Kanter. That edge figures to translate into solid scoreboard production. Boston’s unique ability to have five triple threat perimeter weapons that can dissect Miami’s zone will also likely lead to excessive scoring. Boston’s youth has shown up thus far on the defensive side where they’ve yielded 119 & 124 points. Committing a high number of fouls has been troublesome for the Celtics and Miami has the depth and weapons to exploit their defense. Off of a poor shooting day yesterday versus Toronto which owns one of the NBA’s elite defenses, look for the Heat to bounce back. The starting guard tandem of Robinson & Nunn (1-9 on 3PA in that game) are likely to improve those numbers substantially. Each of the offenses in this matchup are capable of 112+ which makes this a solid “over” play. Expectation here is that this one lands in the neighborhood of 227 or higher.

Recommendation: OVER 221

 

[bmd1803]

John Bollman

Islanders Under 5

 

[bmd1803]

Cal Sports / Ralph Michael

4* Orlando Magic -1.5

 

[bmd1803]

Vegas Sports Informer

4 Cubs-1.5+105

 

[bmd1803]

Jim Feist

MLB
3* Royals/Cubs under 8

 

[bmd1803]

DAVE COKIN

TUESDAY BASEBALL BEST BET
Game: (921) San Francisco Giants at (922) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Aug 4 2020 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Colorado Rockies -180

View Analysis
Big price, but it seems very well justified to me. Fact is, I made the Rockies -220 so there's actually line value even at this number. Kevin Gausman has been around for ages now, but this is his first ever start at Coors. That's a good long term fade angle to begin with. Gausman is also simply not very good, and I expect him to get raked by the Rockies today. Marquez is pitching terrific ball. His numbers at Coors aren't close to his road stats but that's understandable. However, the way he's throwing it to start this short season is extremely impressive and I expect a good outing here. No prob for me to lay it tonight with the Rockies.