Millerlocks
6:30 pm est ncaab
illinois vs. Penn state
pick: Penn state -6 (-105)
risk: 11 units
8:30 pm est ncaab
dayton vs. Va commonwealth
pick: Dayton -2.5 (-111)
risk: 11 units
9:00 pm est ncaab
baylor vs. Oklahoma
pick: Baylor -3 (-109)
risk: 11 units
9:00 pm est ncaab
kentucky vs. Lsu
pick: Lsu -2.5 (-116)
risk: 11 units
6:30 pm est ncaab
illinois vs. Penn state
pick: Penn state -6 (-105)
risk: 11 units
8:30 pm est ncaab
dayton vs. Va commonwealth
pick: Dayton -2.5 (-111)
risk: 11 units
9:00 pm est ncaab
baylor vs. Oklahoma
pick: Baylor -3 (-109)
risk: 11 units
9:00 pm est ncaab
kentucky vs. Lsu
pick: Lsu -2.5 (-116)
risk: 11 units
NCAA Basketball(Bob Balfe) VIP
7:00 PM EST
Rotation #609-610Central Michigan/Ohio Over 151
Central Michigan is a high powered and up-tempo offense, but they are not great on defense. This is a team that has won 8 straight in this series yet they are the underdog?Ohio has a first year head coach and a lot of freshman on the roster.It seems easy to take the dog here.In fact, tonight there are a few weird and shady lines.I think this is going to be high scoring.CMU plays very bad defense on the road so in a high scoring game Ohio could pull it out.I think both teams will come out red hot and both will put up a lot of points before the half.Take the Over.
7:00 PM EST
Rotation #609-610Central Michigan/Ohio Over 151
Central Michigan is a high powered and up-tempo offense, but they are not great on defense. This is a team that has won 8 straight in this series yet they are the underdog?Ohio has a first year head coach and a lot of freshman on the roster.It seems easy to take the dog here.In fact, tonight there are a few weird and shady lines.I think this is going to be high scoring.CMU plays very bad defense on the road so in a high scoring game Ohio could pull it out.I think both teams will come out red hot and both will put up a lot of points before the half.Take the Over.
DR. CHUCK ncaab
Game: (307861) St. Francis (NY) St. Francis (NY) at (307862) LIU Brooklyn LIU Brooklyn
Date/Time: Feb 18 2020 5:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Francis (NY) St. Francis (NY) 6.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Holy cow this is a lot of points in the Battle of Brooklyn with a venue switch after the first game was a 3 point win for LIU...but they aren't even a team playing well enough to lay 6 or 7 points to ANY team in the country at this point. Their defensive efficiency is a 110 over the past 5 games, they aren't making their 3s and shoot nearly half their shots from deep!
40% discrepancy from tickets to money on SFNY tonight and I damn well think this rivalry game might even go the way of St. Francis...and they're getting almost 3 possessions worth of points depending upon when you grab this play!
Game: (307863) Merrimack at (307864) Bryant
Date/Time: Feb 18 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Merrimack 1.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Wrong team favored alert....little slow on the uptake...take what you can get....plus points is OPTIMAL...BUT I HAVE MERRIMACK WINNING THE GAME PERIOD! Then continue to run roughshod over the NEC as they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament until 2024 and EVEN the league tourney....but maybe they will singlehandedly get that dumbass rule changed....as in other action Robert Morris and St. Francis play tonight for top seeding....SHAM!
Game: (307867) Fairleigh Dickinson at (307868) New Britain Blue Devils
Date/Time: Feb 18 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Fairleigh Dickinson -6.0 (-110)
View Analysis
(New Britain comes up as the name for Central Connecticut State!)
Fairleigh Dickinson is a sort of "butt of the joke" type team over the years...not a ton of people know much except to fade or pass for the most part...but they also have a recgonizable enough name to somewhat know of the fade potential. 3-26, 7-24, 8-24, 10-21 are some of the records from recent season...but of course these are SU records being kept by the NCAA for standings purposes. Once Vegas has hit the overcompensation point for a team like FD, the hit ON them can be very lucrative for us diligent followers..as well as create little liability for books and thus may possibly last for several games.
FD is 4-1 SU & ATS the last 5 games overall...only losing to NEC leader (new D1 school) Merrimack Warriors...where they were falsely favored...but also is a "wrong" line according to our numbers...thus creating even more value in a spot such as this...with CCSU at home (meaningless)...whereas Merrimack is on a tear that no book in Vegas was able to be prepared for and thus, to the extent we use our own numbers for games involving the Warriors...I am considering FD to have covered AND won 4 games in a row. Merrimack is only JUST NOW getting the "respect" they deserve...laying 8.5 against Wagner (and covering). Merrimack is 11-2-1 in calendar year 2020 ATS and has been installed as a dog for many of those games, all wins, a dog winning outright at FD.
Back to the crux of the cap...this game involving a fake "terrible" team traveling to play an actual contender for worst overall team in the country!
FD over the past 5 games is a top 5 national team shooting the 3...at 46%, 58+% EFG, identical 104 offensive/defensive efficiencies...and guarding wihout fouling, specifically the perimeter where they allow a 20% less 3 point shooting percentage to opponents...at 26%.
CCSU barely needs to be brought into existence...yes at home, but lost to FD already in Teaneck by 23 points....RIGHT SMACK IN THE MIDDLE of a point where Fairleigh Dickinson had lost 14 of 16 games outright!
On top of all this CCSU is off just the 3rd SU win on the season...a win they accomplished at home against Bryant via mostly smoke and mirrors, being outrebounded, out-assisted, outshot, and while allowing more FTM & FTA...a circumstance worth fading in its own right!
I would recommend playing this as a 5% or bigger play personally...but listing it as a smidge lower with the karmic potential we have created recently with our "listed" top plays. I know, superstitious smupertitious....but it is what it is...a winner is a winner and this is my favorite of the day!
Game: (307861) St. Francis (NY) St. Francis (NY) at (307862) LIU Brooklyn LIU Brooklyn
Date/Time: Feb 18 2020 5:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Francis (NY) St. Francis (NY) 6.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Holy cow this is a lot of points in the Battle of Brooklyn with a venue switch after the first game was a 3 point win for LIU...but they aren't even a team playing well enough to lay 6 or 7 points to ANY team in the country at this point. Their defensive efficiency is a 110 over the past 5 games, they aren't making their 3s and shoot nearly half their shots from deep!
40% discrepancy from tickets to money on SFNY tonight and I damn well think this rivalry game might even go the way of St. Francis...and they're getting almost 3 possessions worth of points depending upon when you grab this play!
Game: (307863) Merrimack at (307864) Bryant
Date/Time: Feb 18 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Merrimack 1.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Wrong team favored alert....little slow on the uptake...take what you can get....plus points is OPTIMAL...BUT I HAVE MERRIMACK WINNING THE GAME PERIOD! Then continue to run roughshod over the NEC as they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament until 2024 and EVEN the league tourney....but maybe they will singlehandedly get that dumbass rule changed....as in other action Robert Morris and St. Francis play tonight for top seeding....SHAM!
Game: (307867) Fairleigh Dickinson at (307868) New Britain Blue Devils
Date/Time: Feb 18 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Fairleigh Dickinson -6.0 (-110)
View Analysis
(New Britain comes up as the name for Central Connecticut State!)
Fairleigh Dickinson is a sort of "butt of the joke" type team over the years...not a ton of people know much except to fade or pass for the most part...but they also have a recgonizable enough name to somewhat know of the fade potential. 3-26, 7-24, 8-24, 10-21 are some of the records from recent season...but of course these are SU records being kept by the NCAA for standings purposes. Once Vegas has hit the overcompensation point for a team like FD, the hit ON them can be very lucrative for us diligent followers..as well as create little liability for books and thus may possibly last for several games.
FD is 4-1 SU & ATS the last 5 games overall...only losing to NEC leader (new D1 school) Merrimack Warriors...where they were falsely favored...but also is a "wrong" line according to our numbers...thus creating even more value in a spot such as this...with CCSU at home (meaningless)...whereas Merrimack is on a tear that no book in Vegas was able to be prepared for and thus, to the extent we use our own numbers for games involving the Warriors...I am considering FD to have covered AND won 4 games in a row. Merrimack is only JUST NOW getting the "respect" they deserve...laying 8.5 against Wagner (and covering). Merrimack is 11-2-1 in calendar year 2020 ATS and has been installed as a dog for many of those games, all wins, a dog winning outright at FD.
Back to the crux of the cap...this game involving a fake "terrible" team traveling to play an actual contender for worst overall team in the country!
FD over the past 5 games is a top 5 national team shooting the 3...at 46%, 58+% EFG, identical 104 offensive/defensive efficiencies...and guarding wihout fouling, specifically the perimeter where they allow a 20% less 3 point shooting percentage to opponents...at 26%.
CCSU barely needs to be brought into existence...yes at home, but lost to FD already in Teaneck by 23 points....RIGHT SMACK IN THE MIDDLE of a point where Fairleigh Dickinson had lost 14 of 16 games outright!
On top of all this CCSU is off just the 3rd SU win on the season...a win they accomplished at home against Bryant via mostly smoke and mirrors, being outrebounded, out-assisted, outshot, and while allowing more FTM & FTA...a circumstance worth fading in its own right!
I would recommend playing this as a 5% or bigger play personally...but listing it as a smidge lower with the karmic potential we have created recently with our "listed" top plays. I know, superstitious smupertitious....but it is what it is...a winner is a winner and this is my favorite of the day!
