TUESDAY BET O THE DAY

[OccamsRazor]

RECORD YTD 40-24 (.625)
SIDES 28-17 (.622)
TOTALS 12-7 (.631)

Atlanta went down here last night and creating the first 3 bet losing streak of the year.

Will try and play out of the streak. All losers were sides. Time for a TOTAL.

Keeping it simple. Dallas/GS two teams with better than average offenses and worse than average defenses. Teams met up 1/7 in Dallas with a resulting 204. GS scored 99. GS is 12-2 ATS 7-5 SU when they score 100+ ALL the 100+ losses obviously are when they are outscored. Dallas's league worse defense presents an exellent opportunity for GS to go for that 100+. Dallas is 7-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points their last 10. If you are the GS coaching staff, you know that scoring over 100 will give you the best chance to win this game. The game plan will be to push the ball up the court at every opportunity and try and outscore Dallas. Track Meet

OVER 206

 

[wilheim]

Alright Occam - good write-up, best of luck.


wil.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

Even without Dunleavy, you still like the over?

Augs15

 

[OccamsRazor]

Aug15; Yeah, even without Dunleavy I still like the OVER. Dunleavy didn't play against Memphis and the team still scored 101, they gave up 106. Dunleavy has hit 17 of 30 3pointers 56% in his last 10 games. He hit 5-7 in his last game vs Chicago to help that avg. This game is away and he has hit 17 of 37 3pointers in his last 10 away games 31%. I'll miss him but not enough to lay off.

GS activated Van Exel for the Memphis game, (2/2) he got in 14 minutes trying to shake the rust off. He'll be ready for some more payback vs his old team. He played 43 minutes vs Dallas on 1/7 and was 3-5 from beyond the arc.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

Sounds good OC, best of luck to you. I agree that this game SHOULD go over but was curious in regards to the Dunleavy injury what your thougts were.

augs15

 

[PeteRoseJR]

OC

Also was curious in your opinion on the INDY-NYK UNDER 179. I think this total seems high considering NO A.HOUSTON and probably no JERMAINE Oneil.What do you think?

augs15

 

[OccamsRazor]

For those that like to read, a detailed matchup


http://www.nba.com/mavericks/matchup/2001-02season_preview.html

 

[OccamsRazor]

Aug: The total does seem high for the Knicks NEW line up at home.Indy on the other hand plays much worse defense on the road. Too many new variables and probablies in this game for my liking. Don't have an opinion.

 

[SSI]

i like dallas in the matchup tonight, they blew a big lead saturday at home and have had 3 days to stew on it.. GST should be the tired team tonight, and against dallas that isnt a good thing to be..

 

[PeteRoseJR]

Dallas looks like they should cruise tonight. They F#cked me bad last week though, I had them ML on the last part of a heavy three teamer and they blew a huge lead in the 2nd half against DENVER.

I dont usually take other peoples choices but someone as smart as you doesnt lose too many in a row, so I m with ya tonight. DAL_GS OVER


Good Luck to everybody.

Augs

 

[fastfreddy]

I rarely play the NBA but think this jumps well over also and playing it tonite also. Thanks and good luck.

 

[Zapster]

Tater and I have had very few "agreed plays" lately, but tonight we have the Golden State OVER. Needless to say seeing Ocean on this one makes me feel even better about it.

Let's have it RAIN THREE POINTERS tonight for the guys at Rx !!!

 

[wilheim]

Went to 206.5 -105 at Pinny. good sign I hope.


wil.

 

[wilheim]

207 now.

 

[NEWPORT]

I am sure looking forward to tomorrow's pick

your fade run must be up now

 

[spidermonkey]

hang in there man.

 

[OccamsRazor]

4 in a row down here. Years of doing this lets me know is time for a break. The last few days have been a struggle to pick a right team. Usually when I look at the card a game looks good, I look into it and if numbers back me up and I post it. The last few days nothing has looked good and its been a struggle. Not only has my pick lost but anything else that looked good has also lost.

If you do this daily you become really aware the ebbs and flows of the league. Just as teams go on streaks so does the league, as a whole lately dogs have started to bite. Good teams have started to tank at home. Low scoring teams have started to score. Good defenses have started to go soft etc. etc. I've said that the most under used weapon in a cappers arsenal is the pass and I'm going to use it until things clear up.

Looking at todays card I've probably would have gone with Minny-5, I'll paper trade for a while starting today till I feel I'm back in the groove. Until I come back good luck with all your picks.

 

[MrGreen]

Minny -5 is the squares play. When people are in slumps the square plays look bigger.

Atlanta has beat the Spurs and Pistons at home. They will play Minny very tough tonight.

Atlanta is the Anti-Square play.


Mr. green

 

[OccamsRazor]

Point well taken Mr Green. See what I mean, out of the whole card today this is what I would have come up with. According to Green it's a square play.

 

[Zapster]

O-R.....

I know all too well about how tough it has been lately in the NBA. You show integrity by stepping back a bit rather than react (like so many do) by posting some super-lock guaranteed winner and recommending people double up on it.

I still say yesterday's play was well capped though. I watched the game and the pacing was perfectly condusive to an over. Both teams shot like they were blindfolded in the first quarter (41 points total) and Jason Richardson missed 4 straight foul shots down the stretch. If he hits those free throws, maybe GS thinks the game is close and they foul in the last minute. Who knows. In any case, this was just an unlucky break....and they happen.

I'm sure you will be back with a vengence when you think the time is right.....and I look forwad to reading your next write-up.