Tuesday Bet O The Day 10/21

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 8-11
SIDES 5-6
TOTALS 3-5

Tuesday night games are on a UNDER trend going back seasons.

Temple offense struggling, look for lots of 3rd and longs. Temple defense better at home, Ohio offense 1td worse on Rd.

UNDER 43

 

[MistaFlava]

stay hot bro, good luck

 

[OccamsRazor]

The main problem with this bet is that most will be on the UNDER; most are notorious for being mostly wrong.

 

[thatoneguy]

The main problem with this bet is that most will be on the UNDER; most are notorious for being mostly wrong.

how right you are disgusts me. i got an under in at 43 right when the total posted and i've seen nothing but people screaming under since then. the universal constant of the book will stomp your ass has me slightly worried now.:smoking:

 

[Timyg]

The main problem with this bet is that most will be on the UNDER; most are notorious for being mostly wrong.

looks like 67%

<TABLE style="BORDER-TOP: #9a7c3d 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top bgColor=#d2b168><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" align=middle>Team</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" align=middle>SPR</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" align=middle>O/U</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" align=middle>SPR</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" align=middle>O/U</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" align=middle>Side</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" align=middle>ML</TD><TD align=middle>O/U</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top bgColor=#a68949><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" align=middle>OHIO</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle>+4.0</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle>43.0</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle>+3.0</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle>42.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle>42%</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle>69%</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle>33%</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top bgColor=#d2b168><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" align=middle>TEMP</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle>-4.0</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle>-3.0</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle> </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle>58%</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #9a7c3d 1px solid" vAlign=bottom align=middle>31%</TD><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle>67%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[OccamsRazor]

What is interesting is that if you track bets where the bettors like a side over 65%, you'll see a 50% win rate in the long run.

Bettors remember the loses, but not the wins. If betting against the majority was profitable everyone would be doing it.

Big Bookie had that approach, betting the other side of the majority. With the premise being the majority of bettors lose in the long run, so we'll bet the other side. Problem is there is no profit in it. Someone started tracking Big Bookie and low and behold 50% winners, Big bookie left the building.

What is profitable is picking your spots to go against the majority. Sometimes you'll see everyone on one side for the wrong reason and you'll step in and cash. Pick your spots.

Tonight I find myself with the majority but I'm comfortable with it. Temple's offense has been sputtering and they have been relying on their defense to keep them in games. Temple's kicking game has been spotty and a FG misses could be the norm. Ohio's offense has a big drop off on the RD. Both teams like to turn the ball over and hopefully they'll turn it over going in.

 

[OccamsRazor]

At 3pm pacific I just read that the wind is blowing hard. Line down to 41, at places.

Crossed that tough 42.. be careful.

 

[shdw01]

I got a bad line but I like the under as well....BOL

 

[gazoo]

At 3pm pacific I just read that the wind is blowing hard. Line down to 41, at places.

Crossed that tough 42.. be careful.

Blowin hard alright. Live 40 minutes out. Lookin out my window at trees bending sideways in the gusts. Got it at 43.BOL:toast:

 

[thatoneguy]

occams-the backup ohio rb isnt that bad at all, he opened the season as the starter...

 

[Timyg]

What is interesting is that if you track bets where the bettors like a side over 65%, you'll see a 50% win rate in the long run.

Bettors remember the loses, but not the wins. If betting against the majority was profitable everyone would be doing it.

Big Bookie had that approach, betting the other side of the majority. With the premise being the majority of bettors lose in the long run, so we'll bet the other side. Problem is there is no profit in it. Someone started tracking Big Bookie and low and behold 50% winners, Big bookie left the building.

What is profitable is picking your spots to go against the majority. Sometimes you'll see everyone on one side for the wrong reason and you'll step in and cash. Pick your spots.

Tonight I find myself with the majority but I'm comfortable with it. Temple's offense has been sputtering and they have been relying on their defense to keep them in games. Temple's kicking game has been spotty and a FG misses could be the norm. Ohio's offense has a big drop off on the RD. Both teams like to turn the ball over and hopefully they'll turn it over going in.

understandable... the only time i really look at whats going on with the public is when a game is in question for a trap play... this game i believe is... for some reason i see this one as a blow out on the O/U line.... i dont see it coming close... just know which way it will blow out :think2:

 

[OccamsRazor]

Apparently the Temple hurt QB is a go and the line has shot up to 4. I liked Ohio on the side with or with out the QB. According to the Temple team site the QB could barely throw 15 yds on Thursday. Have to account for rust and I dont think he practiced this week. Regardless, wind is blowing these 2 inept offenses will struggle.

 

[PUGDOG]

Dont care for game at all. But would take under if I was to take anything. Garbage game

 

[OccamsRazor]

A good example of the majority betting blindly is the side tonight which has gone from 3 to 4 due to the Temple hurt QB apparently playing tonight. Ohio had a good shot at winning this straight up at 3. Now at 4 it becomes a gift. Temple still does not have a reliable kicker.

 

[PUGDOG]

A good example of the majority betting blindly is the side tonight which has gone from 3 to 4 due to the Temple hurt QB apparently playing tonight. Ohio had a good shot at winning this straight up at 3. Now at 4 it becomes a gift. Temple still does not have a reliable kicker.

Read where Ohio a +2 in turnover ratio last three weeks after being -5 the first four weeks...

 

[OccamsRazor]

Game played to form. Two inept offenses combined for 12 punts, 2 turnover on downs, 1missed fg. 2 turnovers ,one of them going in for a score 13 out of 34 3rd and 4th down conversions, 5.5 and 3.6 yds per pass....etc etc.

Again, there is a strong UNDER trend going on on Tuesday night games. I would say the UNDER correlates strongly to the inept offenses being showcased on Tuesday nights by the media. What type of teams play on Tuesday nights? Horrible teams like Temple and Ohio.

Congrats to those on the UNDER.
:toast:

 

[MackDonald]

Nice call (and write-ups) razor man.

Continued good luck and success.

 

[KennyB]

Tailed you on this one. Thanks.

What a shitty game but you gotta love the under!

 

[yanni_gogolak]

nice call or