CL Best Bets - Tuesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
UEFA Champions League - Matchday 1
The three teams topping the betting to win the 2016-17 Champions League now make familiar reading.
Barcelona (3/1), Bayern Munich (4/1) and Real Madrid (5/1) have, for five years now, been comfortably ahead of the rest in Europe, despite admirable recent efforts by Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund.
Next in the betting come Manchester City, who look appealingly priced at 12/1. In Pep Guardiola they have the best manager in Europe - and indeed in the world. Their run to the semi-finals last year was slightly flattering but they are a different animal now. Also 12/1 are Juventus, who were very unlucky to go out in the last 16 to Bayern. Their big squad expansion is specifically targeted at winning the Champions League, and they should go well.
Next are Atletico Madrid and PSG (14/1), Borussia Dortmund (20/1), Arsenal (25/1) and Tottenham Hotspur (33/1). Next are Champions League debutants Leicester City at 50/1, while FC Rostov from Russia, the other team making their first appearence in the competition, are 1000/1.
The Banker: Manchester City -1.5 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach at 21/20
After just three months it is very impressive how much like a Pep Guardiola team Manchester City look. They demolished Manchester United in the first half of the derby at Old Trafford on Saturday, and that was without Sergio Aguero, the focal point of their attack. Even if they do not win the Premier League this year (though they are evens to do so), they will almost certainly score the most goals.
Their opponents on Tuesday, Borussia Mönchengladbach, have had an okay start to their season, losing at Freiburg before an impressive 2-1 home win against Bayer Leverkusen. The sides faced each other last year, and despite City being a lot worse under Manuel Pellegrini than they are under Guardiola, City had little trouble with them, winning 2-1 away and 4-2 at home.
This is a Manchester City side well suited to go well in lots of competitions this year. They are not the flawed outfit of old, and at 21/20 to win by more than one goal they look like a good bet.
The Solid Bet: Napoli to win at Dynamo Kiev at 7/5
Napoli lost Gonzalo Higuain to Juventus in Italy’s most sensational transfer in years over the summer, but they are still a strong outfit with lots of experience in European football. They make the long journey to Ukraine, but may be attractively priced at 7/5 to come away with a valuable three points.
Even without Higuain, they still have Marek Hamsik and Lorenzo Insigne, as well as Chelsea target Kalidou Koulibaly at centre-back. Their nine goals in their first three games of the Serie A season may be a good early sign that the Argentine star may not be as missed as some might expect.
Dynamo Kiev have faltered a bit since winning their first five league games, losing at home to Vorskla Poltava before a 1-1 draw away to Shakhtar Donetsk. Their team is solid but rather predictable, and if Napoli play well they should have enough to win.
The Outsider: Celtic +1.5 at Barcelona at 14/5
Brendan Rodgers, Celtic’s new manager, has made a fantastic start at the Scottish Champions. He has built a young, talented, energetic squad that, while still a long way off what Celtic were a decade ago, are stil good enough to give big teams a fright. They dispatched Rangers 5-1 in the first Old Firm derby in the Scottish Premier League for four years at the weekend.
They face the single hardest task in the world on Tuesday: an away game at Barcelona. They are an eye-popping 28/1 to come away from Catalonia with a win, while Barça are as short as 1/10.
Celtic may well just be worth a go on the handicap here. They only lost 2-1 at Barcelona in 2012/13, and they tend to overperform in European competition. Barcelona will surely win, but at 28/1 Celtic seem overpriced: they are a better match for Barcelona than the worst four or five teams in La Liga, and that is not represented in the prices.
The First Goalscorer: Theo Walcott for Arsenal at Paris Saint-Germain at 10/1
One of the tightest and most interesting-looking games from the first round of matches is Arsenal’s trip to PSG. The Parisians, serial title winners being the only mega-rich team in France, are bound to face a slight decline this year with the loss of their talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Nevertheless they are 10/11 to beat the Gunners, who are 10/3.
One of the surprise bright spots from Arsenal’s start to the season has been Theo Walcott. The winger scored Arsenal’s first against Liverpool and also made an impressive impact coming on for England away to Slovenia. Arsenal will have less of the ball than they usually do, and Walcott’s pace could be vital in counter-attacking on PSG. At 10/1 Walcott looks a value bet for the first goalscorer of the match.
