Tuesday 11-30 hoops, Big 10 vs ACC

[jaypaw]

There are three matchups that will determine quite a bit for the Big 10. I expect that in all three (two on the road and one at home) the big 10 teams will be underdogs.


Michigan St. at Duke

Michigan State and Duke have both played a high school schedule thus far and being in NC I'm sure we can expect Duke to be favored by some - as this is their first game with any real national exposure and all the squares are gonna be coming out of the woodwork to get on Duke as only a slight home favorite. Duke has had it easy but still managed to struggle against Davidson AT HOME. Michigan State has blown the three teams they have faced out of the gym and at no point was the outcome of any of those games in question. Duke reamed Michigan State last year and they wont have that luxury this year.

Maryland at Wisconsin

I'm gonna speculate some that Wisky was caught looking forward to this game when they got schooled by Pepperdine. Maryland capitalized on the lack of discipline vs Memphis and now travelling to Wisconsin they'll have to find another way to win because I expect the badgers to show much more focus in this one.

Michigan at GT

Schenser, Jack, Elder, muhammad, and Bynum, are gonna be tough to play with but I am sure the point spread will take that into account. Michigan will be a heavy underdog here I believe and although I see the reasons why - and I have little doubt that GT will win over Michigan, I think that Michigan will continue to be underrated until they beat someone decent. I've been watching them closely and especially vs Arizona and Providence I was impressed with their ability to hang. With the injury to Jeremis Smith (Freshman who logged 18 mins in GTs last game before the knee injury), GT will be forced to depend more on their top 5 (Schenser, jack, elder, muhammad, and bynum). Michigan is younger and has more depth - they play hard every game, and they stay involved by getting steals all over the place. Hoping for a good line on this one but at +6 or more this one should be pretty safe.


Anyone know a good source for lines this early? I use www.JFlines.com overnight but if anyone has a better place I'd love to hear it.

GL

 

[freaknasty+]

Jaypaw, These are great match-ups, it will be interesting to see what the lines turn out to be. Its good to see your posts again, hopefully the $$$ will start flowing in.

 

[jaypaw]

thanks freak

best of luck to you


I need to turn it around and lay of the dumb bets... I've played 3 or 4 teasers and lost them all. Not doing too bad otherwise. Thats gonna have to stop.
YTD 9-14 -6.97

 

[jaypaw]

GEORGIA TECH 11 Michigan
DUKE 7 Michigan State
WISCONSIN 1 Maryland

New one...
MINNESOTA 3 Florida State


All look pretty good.

I see that Abraham is questionable for Michigan. Not sure if this is a change in status or what but In know he's been out for at least 3 games with a shoulder injury.

 

[jaypaw]

anyone know of a book that has these lines out yet?

I know pinny is usually one of the first but for some reason they havent released anything yet.

 

[LetsRoll]

http://www.thegreek.com/sports/home.asp

 

[Kapusta]

Jaypaw I see Duke-8, Wisky-2, GTech-11. You could be right about Wisky looking ahead. They play very tough at home. Some tough games though a lot of points to give Michigan who has played a tough schedule already. Duke wouldn't touch that game. Minny-Fla St-Garbage game! I would lean to Wisky out of the ACC-Big 10 challenge. Good Luck!

 

[HoosierDaddy]

I would lean with FSU even though as Kapusta said, it is a garbage game. Minnesota played better than expected in Anchorage. FSU has gotten off to a shaky start, but this game should be close to a Pick Em.

 

[jaypaw]

I hope this isnt one of those times that I get smashed for going with what I believe is right - but I'm taking these while I can get them...

4 singles:

Michigan +10½ (-110)

Minnesota -3 (-110)

Michigan State +6 (-110)

Wisconsin pk (-110)



Dont get me wrong - I really appreciate the input, but all of these lines are overvalued because of the ACC hype this year IMO.

I'm not saying that the performance of the ACC last year was a complete fluke but I am certain that the big 10 underperformed.

When I see FSU take a small lead and a little momentum at half and turn it into a loss at TCU then its clear to me that something isnt right with this team... They arent aweful - but they lack direction, and Minny, in a similar position, has the advantage of being at home. Pick the winner of these two and you have the winner of the 3 pt spread... I say its the home team,

When I see MSU destroying their opponents and the blue devils barely coming to play - yet prior to duke playing ANYONE with any credibility they are given 6 point chalk just because, then I'll take MSU,

and when you look at Michigan playing and hanging with providence and arizona with their leading scorer from last year on the bench - then I'll side with Michigan and almost 11 points against a GT team that actually had TROUBLE beating Illinois-Chicago of all teams...

Wisconsin for me is the toughest to stick with - how you lose at pepperdine by 14 points escapes me - but as you mentioned, you must give this team the benefit of the doubt at home. Something about the home crowd that has traditionally kept this team in games - and staying close to a relatively young maryland team that might be a tad overconfident heading into their first road game of the season, should be doable if they can keep their discipline.

GL and please dont stop chimining in just because I disagree with you on this one day...

 

[jaypaw]

you gotta love the contrast in these two articles:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/preview?gameId=243350150


http://www.chronicle.duke.edu/vnews/display.v/ART/2004/11/30/41ac6bca6d780


the funny thing about it is that the humble one is actually the duke source... ESPN is back to its old BS hyping the **** out of duke regardless of the circumstances.

I guess thats what sells advertising. Those considering laying the chalk on Duke tonight might want to think about this before pulling the trigger. Just a thought.

GL

 

[KAPPER]

good analysis.

Illinois-Chicago is a tournament quality team who should win the Horizon league again this year. Wake winning that game was a very quality win. Dont underestimate the Flames.

 

[butt-kiss]

A bit blurry x ray vision

Taking Michigan +11.5

and Michigan +6 1H

both for one unit


YTD 2-6 -2.80

GL & Proceed with caution based on a rocky start

 

[butt-kiss]

OUCH! Georgia Tech now applying for NBA admission. Getting off this runaway train and taking GT +2 in 2nd half for 2 units.

 

[jaypaw]

ouch is right

thanks for the support

 

[jaypaw]

L-Michigan +10½ (-110)
L-Minnesota -3 (-110)
L-Michigan State +6 (-110)
W-Wisconsin pk (-110)

1-4 -2.30
YTD 10-18 -9.27



Sinking back to the bottom where I guess I belong...

 

[jaypaw]

I'm getting this one put to bed now so it doesnt bother me for the rest of the week.

Illinois -4 (-106)

Fade this if you have any sense at all

Wake will lose by 3 I can almost gaurentee it.

GL