Tuesday 10/6/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Football Conference We 7Oct 19:45
AldershotvForest Green
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
BT121/105/26/5More markets
RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALDERSHOTRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Forest Green have not kept a clean sheet in their last eight matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Forest Green’s blistering early-season form has deserted them with no win in five for a side who won their opening nine matches in the National League. Rovers are scoring plenty of goals - only Gateshead have nullified them this term - but defensively there are issues which could be exposed by Aldershot.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
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Euro Championships Th 8Oct 19:45
ScotlandvPoland
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
SS217/1021/1017/10More markets
RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN SCOTLANDRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Scotland have scored exactly one goal in five of their last seven home internationals

EXPERT VERDICT: That one shocking display in Georgia could prove disastrous for Scotland, though they are playing well enough to be able to hold the Poles at Hampden. Stopping Poland means stopping Robert Lewandowski – the Bayern Munich striker has netted 16 goals in his last eight starts for club and country – but Gordon Strachan’s side are well organised.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
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Euro Championships Th 8Oct 19:45
N IrelandvGreece
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN N IRELANDRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Northern Ireland are unbeaten at home in qualifying

EXPERT VERDICT: Northern Ireland host Greece at Windsor Park knowing that victory is enough to guarantee them a ticket to France. The hosts have got plenty of players missing through injury and suspension, but Greece are a pale imitation of the side who shocked Europe to win the 2004 Championship.

RECOMMENDATION: Northern Ireland
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Euro Championships Th 8Oct 19:45
IrelandvGermany
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN IRELANDRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Ireland have conceded only six goals in their last 11 internationals

EXPERT VERDICT: Ireland have been fairly toothless in recent games against Scotland and Georgia but their strength has been in their organisation so Germany may struggle for goals in Dublin. The world champions should eventually have the class to land the victory, although they may need to show patience.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Germany double result
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Euro Championships Fr 9Oct 19:45
EnglandvEstonia
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN ENGLANDRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Estonia have failed to score in any of their last five competitive away games

EXPERT VERDICT: England have wrapped up qualification for Euro 2016 but are unlikely to take their foot off the pedal at Wembley. Opponents Estonia don't have much in the way of attacking flair and the Three Lions should land a routine victory as they close in on a perfect campaign.

RECOMMENDATION: England to win 3-0
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Euro Championships Sa 10Oct 19:45
Bosnia-Hz.vWales
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
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KEY STAT: Wales are unbeaten in ten competitive matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Wales need just one more point to make sure of a Euro 2016 berth and could earn it with a draw against Bosnia. Wales have been defending superbly and their goals conceded tally of two is the second-lowest of the 48 teams in the qualification process which suggests the visitors can nullify Bosnia.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


 
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JIM FEIST

(931) HOUSTON ASTROS VS (932) NEW YORK YANKEES
Take: over the total.

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Tuesday, October 6, 2015 is in the MLB contest between the Houston Astros and the NY Yankees. Yankee stadium is a great offensive park and the Houston Astros come to town on a 6-2-3 run over the total against a team with a winning record. Both offenses are outstanding, with Houston ranked sixth in runs scored, second in slugging. Dallas Keuchel is an incredible 15-0 at home this season, but he opens the playoffs on the road where he is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA. Yankee stadium is not an easy place to throw and this New York offense is deadly, second in baseball in runs scored, 4th in slugging and 10th in on base percentage. Houston is 6-2 over the total when Keuchel starts. New York is 5-1 over the total at home against a team with a winning record. And when these teams clash the over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in New York. Play Houston/NY Yankees Game 1 Over the total.
 
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Preview: Astros at Yankees

GAME: Houston Astros (86-76) at New York Yankees (87-75)
DATE/TIME: Tuesday, October 06 - 8:00 PM EST
WHERE: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A
Playoff Series: Wild Card Showdown; Series Tied 0-0

The New York Yankees backed into homefield advantage in the American League wild-card game and have to hope that a pitching staff that struggled mightily over the final weeks can put it together for one game. The Houston Astros, who visit New York for the AL wild-card game on Tuesday, squandered a chance to earn homefield advantage in the contest with a loss on Sunday but have things lined up to start their ace against the Yankees.

Cy Young Award front-runner Dallas Keuchel will get the nod for the Astros, who waited until the final day of the season to figure out their place in the postseason and are returning to playoff baseball for the first time since representing the National League in the 2005 World Series. New York returns to the postseason following a two-year absence but comes in having lost three straight and six of their last seven. Wins in any of those games would have made the final weekend anticlimactic, but the Yankees instead surrendered a total of 46 runs in six losses to the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles – two teams with nothing left for which to play by that point. New York will start Masahiro Tanaka, who has made one start since Sept. 18 while dealing with a hamstring strain, on Tuesday but figures to have most of their starters available out of the bullpen.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (20-8, 2.48 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (12-7, 3.51)

One reason a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday was so crushing is that it meant Keuchel, who is 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA at home, would have to make the start on the road. The All-Star is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA on the road in 2015 but won at Arizona on Friday and will be making Tuesday’s start on three days’ rest for the first time in his career. Keuchel struck out nine and scattered three hits in seven scoreless frames at New York on Aug. 25 and is 2-1 with a 1.13 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees.

Tanaka tuned up on Wednesday against Boston and was reached for four runs on five hits and a walk in five innings without factoring in the decision. The Japan native will be appearing in his first postseason since joining the Yankees and will try to keep the ball in the park after yielding 25 home runs in 154 total innings. Tanaka made his lone career start against Houston on June 27 and was ripped for six runs on seven hits – three homers – in five innings.

WALK-OFFS

1. The Astros won the season series 4-3, including two of three at the Yankees from Aug. 24-26.

2. New York C Brian McCann is 1-for-22 over his last six games.

3. Houston 2B Jose Altuve led the AL in hits (200) and stolen bases (38) during the regular season but is 10-for-35 with one steal in nine career games at Yankee Stadium.

PREDICTION: Astros 5, Yankees 1
 
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MLB
Dunkel


Houston @ NY Yankees

Game 931-932
October 6, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Keuchel) 16.090
NY Yankees
(Tanaka) 17.527
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-115
7
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-105); Over
 
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MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (86 - 76) at NY YANKEES (87 - 75) - 8:05 PM
DALLAS KEUCHEL (L) vs. MASAHIRO TANAKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 9-17 (-10.5 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 33-48 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 33-42 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 21-31 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 17-25 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.
NY YANKEES are 32-20 (+12.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 39-31 (+7.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 63-64 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KEUCHEL is 40-22 (+20.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 39-20 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 27-13 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 24-12 (+15.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 16-6 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 18-29 (-18.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 35-37 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 (+1.2 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
KEUCHEL is 2-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 1.13 and a WHIP of 0.708.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
TANAKA is 0-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 10.80 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)
 
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CFL Betting Recap - Week 15
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 4-0 SU in Week 15
-- Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 15
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 SU record in Week 15
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 15
-- The 'over' went 3-1 in Week 15

Team Betting Notes

-- The BC Lions (5-8) picked up a much-needed victory against Saskatchewan (2-12), covering for back-to-back games for the first time this season. For BC and Saskatchewan, each team has had the 'over' connect in three straight outings.

-- It wasn't easy, but Edmonton (10-4) picked up its fourth consecutive win at Winnipeg (4-10), although the Eskimos failed to cover in the 24-23 victory. For the first time this season the Blue Bombers have covered back-to-back games, and the 'over' is 3-1-1 in their past five. The 'over' has hit in two in a row for the Esks after an under run.

-- Ottawa (8-5) continues to be a major thorn in the side of Montreal (5-8). The difference in the standings between the RedBlacks and the Alouettes are the head-to-head battles, as Ottawa is 3-0 SU/ATS against Montreal this season. After some early-season offensive struggles, the RedBlacks have scored 24 or more in six stragiht outings, and the 'over' has hit in three in a row, and seven of their past nine.

-- The Alouettes looked like they might be piecing things together in mid-August, but they have dropped three of four and they are also 1-3 ATS during the span. One consistent thing for the Alous is the 'over' has hit in a season-high three straight after the 'under' came through in nine of their first 10 to start the season.

-- Calgary (11-3) picked up a narrow win and cover at Hamilton (8-5), handing the TiCats back-to-back losses for the first time this season. The Stampeders are now a respectable 5-3 ATS in the past eight games after going 0-6 ATS to start the season. This sets up a huge battle against Edmonton next weekend at home for the Stamps.

-- For Hamilton, not only did they lose back-to-back games for the first time, but this is the first time they have failed to cover in two in a row this season. The 'under' has cashed in four of their past five games.

-- Toronto (7-5) was on the bye this weekend. They'll be well rested for their key home battle against Ottawa Tuesday.
 
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CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
By David Schwab

Week 16 of the CFL regular season features a unique five-game schedule starting this Tuesday night with the Ottawa RedBlacks on the road against Toronto. Looking back at last week’s results, the RedBlacks got things started with a 39-17 victory against Montreal last Thursday as three-point home favorites.

Calgary tightened its grip on another West Division title with a key 23-20 win over Hamilton on Friday to cover as a two-point road favorite. Saturday’s CFL action saw Edmonton sneak past Winnipeg 24-23 as a 6 ½-point road favorite while British Columbia closed things out with a 46-20 romp over Saskatchewan as a three-point favorite at home.

Tuesday, Oct. 6

Ottawa RedBlacks (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -1
Total: 53 ½

Game Overview

Ottawa’s win last week coupled with Hamilton’s loss moved the RedBlacks into a tie for first in a heated battle for the East Division title. They have now won four of their last five games both straight-up and against the spread. Veteran CFL quarterback Henry Burris added another 504 passing yards to his league-high total of 4,115 with a monster performance against the Alouettes.

The Argonauts are coming off a bye heading into a rough stretch of two games in six days. Their last time out on Sept. 26 they beat Ottawa 35-26 as 1 ½-point road underdogs in the first half of this extended home-and-home series. Toronto quarterback Trevor Harris completed 24-of-36 attempts for 282 yards and two touchdowns in that game, but he was also picked-off twice. He did a good job at spreading the ball around with completions to eight different players.

Betting Trends

Toronto has won the first two meetings this season SU with the series tied 1-1 ATS. The total went OVER in both games. Last season the series was split 1-1 both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in both contests.
 
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Week 16 CFL games

Toronto (7-5) @ Ottawa (8-5)-- Game is in Ottawa because the Blue Jays have SkyDome booked up this week for the baseball playoffs. Toronto won last three series games, beating RedBlacks twice this season- 30-24 (-9) in Toronto in Week 9, then 35-26 (+2.5) here two weeks ago. Argos had a bye last week; they've lost three of last four games, are 4-4 on road- four of their last five road games went over the total. Ottawa won four of last five games; they're 5-2 at home- over is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Toronto Arognauts
Ottawa RedBlacks even, 54
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 6:30 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$16000 - 2, 3 & 4 YEAR OLDS COLTS, STALLIONS & GELDINGS NW 3 EXT. PM RACES OR $30,000 LIFETIME PA PREFERENCE MOHEGAN SUN POCONO DRIVER`S CHOICES: GEORGE NAPOLITANO #2 OVER #8 & #9


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 NO REASON AT ALL 3/1


# 3 PITTSBURGH HANOVER 4/1


# 6 AMICUS 5/1


NO REASON AT ALL looks really good to best this grouping. He's battling in fine form, recording formidable speed ratings. An excellent contender. Could beat this race, just look at the TrackMaster speed fig - 78 - from his last event. When the starter calls, harness racers coming out of the 5 position have more wins than the expected average. PITTSBURGH HANOVER - Has a huge shot this time, if he can race to his back racing class. AMICUS - Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 76 speed fig. This gelding has been racing versus some of the most competitive company in this group of horses these days.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rosecroft Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 8:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$6400 - MARYLAND PREFERRED NW $5,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 7 LONE RAIDER 3/1


# 3 REBEL SOLDIER 5/2


# 6 DROVER 6/1


The consensus in this event is that LONE RAIDER is the one to beat. This gelding getting the top prize wouldn't be impossible, a chance. He has been performing very well and the speed figures are among the most competitive in the bunch. Seems to have a good class advantage based on the starters he has faced. REBEL SOLDIER - A great play in here as he has one of the highest winning statistics in the group of horses as well as magnificent credentials all around. Comes into this race with great TrackMaster class ratings as compared to the field - could be worth a shot. DROVER - Has the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 85 TrackMaster SR. Is a very promising win contender given the 71 TrackMaster SR from his most recent contest.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 10 CAMALU 6/1


# 1 CHARMING VERSE 7/2


# 1A WINTER D'AMOUR 7/2


I've got to go with CAMALU. This filly gets a boost with Hisby in the irons. Has to be given consideration against this field displaying respectable figures recently and an average speed rating of 68 under similar conditions. CHARMING VERSE - With a solid 70 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's affair. She has been running soundly and the speed figures are among the best in this group. WINTER D'AMOUR - Has solid front-end speed and will probably fare soundly versus this field. Is a definite contender - given the 69 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Portland Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4700 Class Rating: 73

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 11TH, 2015. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 6TH, 2015 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 SUDDENLY ADELE 4/1


# 1 JENNIFER DOLL 5/2


# 6 SHAME ON ROSIE 8/1


I favor SUDDENLY ADELE here. Has very strong early speed and will probably fare soundly versus this group of horses. Velasquez has a strong win percent with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Has been running solidly and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. JENNIFER DOLL - Has quite good front speed and will most likely fare admirably against this group of horses in this race. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is solid for this racer.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 GIRLS AND GUNS (ML=5/2)


GIRLS AND GUNS - I like to play this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a sharp race within the last month. I like this filly. Has the topmost earnings per start (EPS) in here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PUNKIN'S PRIDE (ML=8/5), #3 FLATTERING TALES (ML=7/2), #8 TALKIN' HAILEY JO (ML=8/1),

PUNKIN'S PRIDE - This morning-line favorite may be out of condition without any recent morning activity. FLATTERING TALES - Finished fourth in her most recent race with a mediocre rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. TALKIN' HAILEY JO - That was merely not a very good showing in the last event. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this racer as a likely underpriced equine.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 GIRLS AND GUNS is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with 8

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Zia Park - Race #9 - Post: 3:59pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 PENTHEUS (ML=6/1)
#3 EMPIRE CAT (ML=7/2)


PENTHEUS - Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Certainly on edge for a good one today. We have lots of early speed with this thoroughbred. He could wire this field. Trainer Evans moves this one down the class scale to face a weaker level today. Look for a nice effort in here. Always watch out for the longer priced equine when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. First-time going 1 mile. This trainer is a keen one when it comes to stretching out any horse. I'd give them a real good look. EMPIRE CAT - I am keen on that last outing on Sep 19th at Zia Park where he ended up third. Juarez and Evans perform well when they work together. Tough to top a winning pct of 38. Jockey hops back up on after getting to know the horse by riding last out. That's always a big time angle. Past Performances show this horse with three improving speed ratings. Juarez should be on a horse ready to win right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 CO FERMENT (ML=5/2), #4 TAGGED (ML=9/2), #5 I FOUND GREATNESS (ML=5/1),

CO FERMENT - I just don't have a positive feeling about this mount in this clash. TAGGED - Hard to invest in a entrant that lays up for a long time then doesn't hit the board off the long vacation. Substandard speed rating last time around the track at Zia Park at 1 mile. Don't believe this racer will improve too much today. I FOUND GREATNESS - Don't believe this less than sharp equine will do much running today. That last speed fig was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class rating.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - EMPIRE CAT - Took a drop in class last out at Zia Park. Stays at the same class level today. Look for a strong performance.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 PENTHEUS is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 

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