Tuesday 02/10/04 (YTD: 44-52-1 -12.79 units/1-1 last night)

I wholeheartedly apologize for the BYU first half. Tonight:

Rutgers +9 at Syracuse
Rutgers 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings. Syracuse 1-4 SU/1-4 ATS L5 with double digit losses at Providence, at UConn and vs Pittsburgh. Rutgers 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS L5 including a win at Nova as a 6 point dog. Knights playing well on the road 5-4 ATS and Cuse struggles to put teams away at home with a 3-7 ATS record. Rutgers 11-6 ATS overall and the Orange just 5-10 ATS. Statistical advantages for Rutgers at the free throw line (69.7% vs 61.3%) and the 3 point line (37.3% vs 32.7%) lead me to the Scarlet Knights. RPI 0.6108 for Rutgers and 0.6088 for the Cuse. Massey Schedule rating 30.51 for Rutgers vs 29.17 for Syracuse. I have to side with the visitors tonight. Only trend I have for O/U is the Cuse 24-43-2 O/U since 2000 but the Knights are 2-0 O/U this season on the road.


There will be more...this is one to start. Good luck!

sb

 

Alabama +9 at Kentucky O/U 131.5 (PASS)
Crimson Tide are 2-1 SU/ATS L3 meetings with all 3 playing under. Tide just 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games but are 4-2-2 ATS on the road. Cats are 6-2 SU L8 but just 2-5-1 ATS and have failed to cover their last 3 at home. Stat edges to Bama from the field and from 3 point range but KY gets the edge from the line and on the boards. RPI for Kentucky 0.6719 and for Bama 0.6194. Massey schedule rating 33.41 for Kentucky and 32.91 for Bama. Trends I have for Bama are 10-23-1 ATS road since 2000 but 21-9 ATS when playing the 2nd road game in a row. I’m passing this one.

North Carolina +4.5 at Georgia Tech O/U 161 (OVER)
Tech has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series and the home team has won the last 7 outright. Heels covered the last 2 as a 3.5 dog winning at Wake outright and losing by 2 vs. Duke. Tech just 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in their last 5 with 4 of 5 playing over. North Carolina is 8-2 O/U L10. Teams are very even statwise with the only decisive edge for Tech and their defensive numbers (around 9 percent edge for defensive FG pct). Carolina’s RPI 0.6337 and Tech’s 0.6322 so they are very close here. Massey’s schedule strength for Carolina 35.31 (2nd toughest) and Tech’s 34.38 (6th toughest) so it’s tight here as well. Heels 4-2 O/U on the road and Tech 3-1 O/U at home. These two combined for 191 points a few weeks ago in Chapel Hill. No reason to think they can’t hit 161 here.

Texas -16 at Baylor O/U 139.5 (PASS)
Longhorns are 10-0 SU/8-2 ATS L10 against the Bears. Horns are 9-1 SU/6-4 ATS L10 with the one loss coming vs Oklahoma State. Bears just 2-8 SU L10 but a respectable 6-4 ATS and have covered their last 3 including an outright win over A&M. Baylor actually shoots better from the field than Texas at home and has a better free throw percentage but the 3 pt edge and a monster rebounding edge go to the Horns. Texas 4-7 O/U overall and 2-4 O/U on the road. RPI for Texas 0.6436 against the Bears 0.4622 and the Massey Schedule Rating for the Horns 31.75 (16th) vs Baylor’s 23.59 (171st). Texas since 2000 is 17-7-1 ATS after 2 home games. Not a whole lot sways me either way here so I will pass.

That’s it for top 25 games for now. Good luck tonight!

sb

 

Rutgers ca$hes in!

Heels and Jackets track meet would be the icing on the cake tonight!

Good luck!

sb

 

Whoo hoo! 2-0 tonight...I should've jumped on Texas and Ga Tech based on the above but I've had enough of losing so 2 W's is fine with me.

4-1 Week to date...maybe we're back on track folks! Good luck!

sb