Tues - 12/09 - Sekrah's Performance Ratings & Analysis

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I'll be posting one game at a time here..


For those who handicap horse racing, this is basically "The Sheets" or "Thorograph" for College Basketball!!


Bold = Home
Italics = Away
Normal = Neutral

Lower the number, the better the performance/effort. Each point difference is worth roughly 2 points.

Ignore the opponent! Performance ratings are already opponent strength adjusted!!



Northern Iowa at Iowa

Northern Iowa Game Ratings

20 - Denver
20 - Illinois-Chicago
21 - Texas Southern
17 - Chicago St.
29 - Marquette
19 - Auburn
19 - Iowa St.
NR - North Dakota

Division 2 North Dakota non-rating here really complicates things here. However, unlike Iowa (as we'll see below), Northern Iowa shown some consistancy in their performances vs D1 opponents with 6 of their 7 games falling into a 5 point range (17-21). Their one poor performances was off a reaction to the 17 top. On the road, I'm going to put them down for a 20 here.

Iowa Game Ratings

15 - Charleston
20 - Texas San Antonio
10 - Citadel
18 - Oakland
14 - SE Missouri St.
22 - West Virginia
13 - Kansas St.
21 - Boston College
14 - Bryant

Quite a pattern of performance here from Iowa. They have reacted poorly off every effort 15 or better! They've reacted 5, 8, 8, and 8 points on each of their previous 4 efforts 15 and better. We'll go with the conservative end and guess they regress 5 points. 19 for Iowa.

Forecast: Northern Iowa 20 - Iowa 19 (Iowa -2)

Play: Northern Iowa +7.5 (1.5 units)
 

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Tremendous Work!

I can see you've spent quite a bit a time on this endeavor! :aktion033

I am about to pull the trigger on the Northern Iowa Panthers +8 (buy hook -120). You've sold me!

Let's cash this one! :toast:

Go Panthers! :aktion033

+8
 

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Thanks Basket Case..


Toledo at Wright St.

Toledo Game Ratings

24 - Florida
24 - Xavier
25 - Florida Int'l
24 - Cleveland St.
NR - West Georgia
22 - MD-Baltimore Co.
23 - Massachusetts
25 - Oakland

Consistant team in a tight 22-25 range. Interestingly, most of these games have been on the road. I will be very interested in playing this team at home next time out. In this spot coming off the 25, I can see them coming forward a little bit. I'll go with 23.


Wright St.

20 - Illinois St.
19 - Central Michigan
25 - Miami OH
27 - Sam Houston St.
22 - Wisc-Green Bay
24 - Wisc-Milwaukee

Wright St. got hit with a little bit of the injury bug losing their top scorer, even so, I think this is a decent looking pattern heading into today. I can see them come back to a 21 here.

Forecast: Toledo 23 - Wright St. 21 (Wright St. -4)

NO PLAY/VALUE ( Wright St. -4.5)


I spent the time handicapping this, even though I didn't come up with a play, I thought it would be useful posting it.

It takes me roughly 30-40 minutes to do a game, and I have to leave for my "real" job in less than 2 hours.. I should be able to get another 2, hopefully 3 games handicapped..
 

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Virginia Tech at Georgia

Virginia Tech Game Ratings

20 - Gardner Webb
19 - Mount St. Mary's
14 - Fairfield
14 - Xavier
17 - Seton Hall
21 - Elon
15 - Wisconsin
15 - Navy

This will be Virginia Tech's first game of the season in a hostile enviroment. Pattern wise, they look like a solid consistant program. Long-term, I like the way this looks. However coming into this one though, the pair of 15's, combine with their first real road game may foretell a reversal. I'm going to give them an 18 here.


Georgia Game Ratings

17 - South Carolina Upstate
30 - Loyola-Chicago
23 - Eastern Michigan
17 - Presbyterian
15 - Santa Clara
12 - Miss Valley St.
17 - Western Kentucky
26 - Illinois

After that clunker vs Loyola-Chicago, they've woken up and steadily progressed all the way up to 12! Coming off another clunker on the road, they got the MAJOR HEAT right here I LOVE them to put up a good number in the spot at home! I think there's a very good chance here they do atleast a 17, if not better! I'll go with the 15 they put up against Santa Clara! They got 5 performances on their schedule that'll beat an 18.

Forecast: Virginia Tech 18 - Georgia 15 (Georgia -6)

Play: Georgia +3 (2.5 units)
 

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Looks like we are on opposite sides on the VA Tech-Georgia game! :icon_conf
I'm on VA Tech tonight.

Best of luck! :toast:
 

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St. Joseph's at Towson St.

St. Joseph's Game Ratings

18 - Rider
24 - Holy Cross
17 - Texas
15 - Indiana
25 - Alabama
16 - Lehigh
23 - Creighton

Heading into today's game, this look like an excellent pattern for a good performance. St. Joes has shown no road wearies. The 24 at Holy Cross sucked but they've got back to back 17 and 15 on neutral court and a 16 on the road at Lehigh. Coming off a crumby performance vs Creighton, they're may be some HEAT on their side here. They haven't thrown two clunkers in a row all year and I really like their chances to get back into the mid-high teens here. I'm going with a 17 for St. Joseph's.


Towson St. Game Ratings

18 - Navy
26 - Niagara
24 - Hampton
24 - NJIT
20 - Villanova
27 - Penn State
23 - MD Baltimore Co.
28 - Hofstra

Towson St. may have some heat on their side after a horrible home game vs Hofstra last time out, but where are they going to go? Since their opening game vs Navy they haven't gotten anywhere near that performance! 20 on the road at Villanova is admirable, but that effort knocked the wind out of them too as they immediately crumbled vs Penn State (Although I believe PSU was on the heat that game after losing to Rhode Island).. They didn't rebound off that 27 too hard. And they are already back to a 28 two games later? I'll give them a 22 here, that may be a tad generous against a heat catching St. Joes.

Forecast: St. Joseph's 17 - Towson St. 22 (St. Joseph's -10)

Play: St. Joseph's -4.5 (1.5 units)
 

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Denver at CS Northridge

Denver Game Ratings

27 - Northern Iowa
31 - Lamar
23 - Northern Colorado
24 - Wyoming
30 - Montana
22 - Texas Arlington

Two uglies to start the season, they kind of got it going a little bit with a 23. The reaction to just 24 on the road vs Wyoming was kind of encouraging, telling me that the 23 wasn't the best they had in them and they ahd more in the tank. The bounced back to 30, and on the heat they put up a 22 vs Texas Arlington. This is very dicey. They are definently going backwards here, but how much? My instincts are telling me it won't be that horrific. I'll go 3 pt drop and give them credit for a 25 here.


CS Northridge Game Ratings

NR - Cal Lutheran
25 - Stanford
20 - Cal St. Bakersfield
22 - New Mexico
25 - Rider
25 - Drexel
20 - UCLA

On target, Northridge moved forward after the twin 25s, but now they are coming into their 1st home game on their 2nd 20. I gotta say, I can't picture them making a strong move forward after that UCLA game. Another move back to 22 seems to be in the offing.

Prediction: Denver 25 - CS Northridge 22 (CS Northridge -6)

Play: Denver +10 (1 unit).



That's all for today! I'll have more tomorrow!


RECAP

Georgia +3, 2.5 units
Northern Iowa, +7.5, 1.5 units
St. Joseph's -4.5, 1.5 units
Denver +10, 1.0 unit.
 

surfer wannabe
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splitsville but overall winner based on units....you may have something in your method
 

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Yea.. I think I was reaching a bit on that Denver pick. Shoulda figured in more of a bounce than I did.. It was the last game I handicapped and I was itching for a 4th game to bet and was kinda "willing" them to put up a 25. This jokers have two games in the 30's for crimany sakes.

Otherwise, I'm quite happy with how things went.
 

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