Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election

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[h=1]Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election says college professor who is 'almost certain' the Donald will be the next U.S. president[/h]

• Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump a 97 percent chance of beating Clinton in November - if he's the GOP nominee

• He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent

• Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960

• If either Rubio or Cruz were the GOP nominee, the model shows them losing to Clinton but winning against Sanders

By FRANCESCA CHAMBERS, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 15:08, 25 February 2016 | UPDATED: 16:04, 25 February 2016

 

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If a professor at Stony Brook University is correct, Donald J Trump will be the next President of the United States.
Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling gives Trump with a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election. He'd have an even better shot against Bernie Sanders - 99 percent.




'The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,' Norpoth told Stony Brook's school newspaper, The Statesman, 'if he’s a nominee of the [Republican] party.'

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If a professor at Stony Brook University is correct, Donald J Trump will be the next President of the United States. He's seen here on Wednesday with televangelist Pat Roberts in Virginia Beach

 

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The numbers don't lie: Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960.
One of the closest elections in U.S. history, John F. Kennedy bested Richard Nixon by 0.17 percent or 112,827 votes.
Norpoth's model is correct 96.1 percent of the time, suggesting victory is on the horizon for Trump


'When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.' Norpoth said at a gathering Monday at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, according to The Stateman.
He added, 'Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.'
Trump has won three out of four GOP contests this year and is ahead in polling in most states that vote on Tuesday.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are trying to catch up, but the GOP senators have had to spend much of their time this year pushing out low-polling candidates with little chance of winning who were siphoning off support from their own bids.
Cruz has won one contest, Iowa, in January, and Rubio has won none. He's come in twice in a row, though, in South Carolina and Nevada.
Overall, Norpoth said a Republican has a 61 percent chance of winning the general election come November.
Clinton would have a 55 percent chance of winning if she went up against Cruz or Rubio and Norpoth's model says she'd have 0.3 percent on either of them in the popular vote category.
They'd beat Sanders, though, he said, by 0.6 percent. That boosts their odds of winning to 60 percent, respectively.
If Trump is the nominee, those odds go up substantially, Norpoth said.
'The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost, "take it to the bank." '






Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election

 

[vitterd]

Thanks for the bump material!!! BFL would be proud!!!

 

[superbeets]

If Prof. Norpoth's model is correct, Hillary Clinton will get creamed by Donald Trump in the general election

 

[superbeets]

Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, except the election of 1960 between John F. Kennedy (left) and Richard Nixon (right)

 

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[h=1]Donald Trump cannot be stopped. Republicans need to prepare him for the White House[/h][h=2]There is no longer any doubt about who will win the Republican nomination[/h]



By Rob Crilly

5:20PM GMT 25 Feb 2016






There's only one conversation among Republicans in Washington this week: how to stop Donald Trump.

They are wrong.

What they should be asking themselves – after his extraordinary victory on Tuesday in the Nevada caucus – is how they can learn to love him.

Stopping him is not working. So far their strategy has developed from “hoping for the best” to “waiting for something to turn up”.

The remaining candidates seem terrified of going head to head with Mr Trump.

Consider this. Of the $215 million spent by Super Pacs – the cash-guzzling, arm's-length organisations that do the dirty work of a campaign – so far only $9.2 million has been spent on attacking Mr Trump, according to The New York Times. Peanuts.
And that's for the thinnest skinned candidate in the race. A glance at his Twitter feed is evidence enough of how badly he takes criticism. A toddler would be embarrassed.

 

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Shock and awe attacks would be wasted now, however. The battleground is set. Super Tuesday looms next week and something more dramatic is needed.
Jeb Bush, once a presumed shoo-in for the job, offered a clue. As scion to the ultimate Republican dynasty, he fell on his sword after another thumping in South Carolina, the better for the anti-Trump vote to coalesce around a single standard bearer.
This is now what passes for conventional wisdom: Mr Trump leads because of the split vote against him so who is the next body to be thrown in front of the Trump juggernaut?




The liberal John Kasich? He has made clear he is not dropping out. He is going to run until he pockets the vice presidential position on the winner's ticket.
Ben Carson? His conservative supporters are most likely to go to Ted Cruz, the unliked Texas senator, with little prospect of lifting his numbers to anything close to the front-runner.
The only calculation that works at this stage is for Mr Cruz to fall in behind his fellow Cuban-American senator, Marco Rubio.
It makes a certain superficial sense: one titillates the conservative base while the other reassures the party establishment.
Think Reagan-Bush of 1980.

 

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But surely the Republican elite have woken up to the smell of coffee by now… if not something less pleasant. It is not 1980.
If voters in angry America are rejecting the political elite by flocking to a charismatic reality TV star, it seems unlikely that they are going to buy a stitch-up worked out over sparkling water in the smoke-free rooms of Washington.



And there's the Trump card problem. When Mr Trump promised not to be a sore loser and opt for a third-party campaign in the event of rejection in the Republican primaries, he did so on the proviso that he was treated fairly by the Grand Old Party.


A backroom deal would provide him ample opportunity to cry foul, freeing him to run as an independent. He might not win, but he could make damn sure the Republican candidate didn't either.

All of which shows that radical steps are certainly needed. But banging heads together to stop Donald Trump is simply not going to cut it.

A bolder strategy is needed. It's time for the Republican party to start to love the Donald, to groom him as their candidate, rein in his excesses and curb his profanities.

It is not as crazy as it sounds.

In fact it has started. Rudolph Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, is among the establishment figures who have begun quietly advising Mr Trump in something of a kitchen cabinet.

 

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Much of his platform is up for grabs anyway. Cut through the bluster and he has left plenty languishing in the long grass. Foreign policy is to be decided by rooms of experts; economic policy will be subject to his own, much vaunted negotiation skills.


The Mexico wall and a ban on Muslims entering the US, of course, can't be finessed away.



But the rest is centrist, moderate – his admiration for single payer healthcare, for example – and a long way from the conservative, tea party wing of the party.


With his name recognition, forceful charisma and energy, there are worse candidates with which to fight a presidential election.


The country has changed. Donald Trump offers the Republican Party a chance to change with it.


This is no longer about whether he is the best candidate. That was last year's question.


He is simply the candidate.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Well why hold the election then? Just save time and anoint him king.

 

[neverbend]

I'd say Trump's chances are about 60% not 97% but I hope this guys crystal ball is right on.
Hollywood Sportsbook disagrees wildly

Clinton -130
Trump +180
Rubio +950
Sanders +1300
Biden +5000
Bloomberg +5000
Cruz +7500
Kasich +10000

 

[ScottL]

If a professor at Stony Brook University is correct, Donald J Trump will be the next President of the United States. He's seen here on Wednesday with televangelist Pat Roberts in Virginia Beach

The Daily Mail either has the dumbest writer's or the laziest editors in the world. Every article posted here has at least one glaring error that would never make it to publication in a real newspaper.

 

[Willie99]

Well why hold the election then? Just save time and anoint him king.

Obama is the only king we've ever had my friend, or at least he thinks so

or should I call him the messiah? that's what most of supporters need him to be

 

[roadreeler57]

The Daily Mail either has the dumbest writer's or the laziest editors in the world. Every article posted here has at least one glaring error that would never make it to publication in a real newspaper.

Daily mail is OK in my book & popular in this Country for a British publication & probably the most popular...

 

[TomGshotput]

Anyone care to guess how much this guy will be betting on the election?

(How much should he bet based on Kelly: http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php)

 

[superbeets]

[h=6]- FEBRUARY 27, 2016 -[/h][h=1]DONALD J. TRUMP ENDORSED BY FORMER ARIZONA GOVERNOR JAN BREWER[/h](New York, NY) February 27th, 2016 – Today Donald J. Trump was endorsed by former Arizona Governor Jan Brewer. Arizona is one of the states most affected by illegal immigration and Mr. Trump has received tremendous support from key officials including Sheriff Joe Arpaio, State Treasurer Jeff DeWit and is now proud to receive the support of the highly respected former Governor.

Mr. Trump says, “I love the state of Arizona and have received incredible support throughout the state. I am leading in all the polls and we have had amazing events with tremendous crowds. I am honored to receive this endorsement from Governor Brewer.”

Jan Brewer added, "Arizona’s unsecured border is the gateway of illegal immigration into the United States and the politicians in Washington D.C. have continually failed to secure our border. As I’ve always said: A nation without borders is like a house without walls – it collapses. As Arizona’s Governor, I witnessed too much heartache, loss and suffering caused by illegal immigration. I’ve seen communities destroyed by the drugs, gangs, drop houses and cartels. The cost of health care, education and incarceration for illegal immigrants places a crushing burden on taxpayers. Workers of all backgrounds are deprived of jobs and income from our open, bleeding border."

"For years I pleaded with the federal government to do their job and secure our border. Today, we can elect a President who will do just that - Donald J. Trump. Mr. Trump will secure our borders, defend our workers and protect our sovereignty. Mr. Trump will stand for our law enforcement, our police and our immigration officers. Mr. Trump will actually enforce the rule of law."

"As a Washington outsider, Mr. Trump gets it. He will listen to the people and fight for the citizens of the United States."

Brewer added, “As Mr. Trump says: we either have a country, or we don't. This may be our last chance to ensure our children grow up in a country with borders, and with a government that protects its own people. This is our chance - Donald Trump is our chance - to save this country and Make America Great Again."

Mr. Trump continues to draw a hard line stance on illegal immigration, with the promise to build a wall along the southern border and stop illegal immigration to protect American jobs and families.

 

[superbeets]

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 6h6 hours ago
It was an honor to be the Grand Marshall- in the Salute to Israel Parade back in 2004.

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[LENBO]

vitterd[/B];11498403]Thanks for the bu​mp material!!! BFL would be proud!!!

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